2010 MLB Awards

The baseball Oscars are here. During the next two weeks, baseball will hand out its 2010 hardware. But does anybody really want to hear another set of picks for the MVP and CY Young winners? Do we need another set of arguments outlining why the voters got it wrong (DEREK JETER) in handing out Gold Gloves? So, in lieu of handicapping the major awards, I have put together a list of alternative awards and award winners for 2010 so we can acknowledge some of the more unappreciated accomplishments, feats and moments of the 2010 season.

Biggest “I Told You So” Team: Seattle Mariners

After coming off an 85 win season and trading for Cliff Lee, the Seattle Mariners thought they were finally contenders again in the AL West. But despite plenty of offseason buzz, every sportswriter in the country was red flagging this team. The rotation behind Lee and Felix Hernandez was susceptible and unproven. Adrian Beltre and Russell Branyan were gone. This meant an already weak offense would be getting weaker and that was if Milton Bradley (acquired from the Cubs) could finally put it together. Needless to say, none of this worked out and Seattle will be drafting second next June.

Most Disappointing Free Agent Signing: Rich Harden.

Texas enjoyed last year’s biggest free agent bargain in Vladdy Guerrero, but the value gained in the Guerrero signing might have been cancelled out by the loss sustained in the Harden signing. Paying $6.5 million dollars for a 5.68 ERA and 5 wins is something only the Yankees can afford to do. Luckily it was only a one year contract.

Most Impressive Season Played With a Sports Hernia: Jose Bautista.

Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres.

I still don’t completely believe that this team won 90 games this year. Now Boston fans will have to wait until July to acquire Adrian Gonzalez.

Biggest Trend That Didn’t Pan Out: Strong Defensive Teams.

Last offseason, defence was a hot commodity. Many teams (Boston and Seattle) based their free agent and trade acquisitions (Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Casey Kotchman, Jack Wilson) on defensive efficiency, assuring their fans they would be competitive through run prevention. The value of defence should not be undermined, but it turns out you still need to pitch and hit. I don’t know who watched the World Series but the San Francisco Giants fielded a defence that included a shortstop that has the range of a traffic cone, a designated hitter at first base AND Pat Burrell.

Biggest “Oh Shit” Moment: Stephen Strasburg Blowing Out His Arm.

The fate of the Nationals future (and Dr. James Andrews’ career practicing sports medicine) hangs on how Strasburg’s arm will respond to Tommy John surgery.

Slowest Player to Steal a Base: Bengie Molina.

At the end of the regular season this title would have gone to Rangers catcher Matt Treanor. That said, Bengie has been far and away the slowest player in MLB since 2003, so when he swiped a bag in the playoffs with the stakes at their highest, he deservedly took the crown away from Treanor. Molina also plans to retire this year, so it’s a nice gesture to have him go out on top.

Player Who Agonizingly Still Failed to Live Up to His Potential: BJ Upton.

Instead of having a breakout campaign in 2010 Upton again seemed to be playing a personal game of “how low can my batting average go before I get platooned”. There’s an old saying in baseball that speed never takes a day off, but whoever said that hasn’t seen Upton run out a ground ball.

2010 Division Series Notes

Playoff Stats

TBS and Fox – please stop showing playoff statistics in lieu of regular season statistics during telecasts. Thank you for informing us that BJ Upton is hitting .000 but it is a seven at bat sample, and doesn’t really tell us much about him as a player. Unless you catch a player the first time through the order, you will be treated to stats like that instead of regular season numbers that more accurately reflect how a player has preformed over the past 8 months.

Doctober

Roy Halladay is the only pitcher in baseball who you can expect to throw a no hitter and your expectation would sound reasonable. Judging by his subdued no-no celebration, Doc has one thing on his mind, and that is winning the World Series. Now that he is pitching for the Phillies in the National League ( and despite being 33), Doc’s high level of conditioning and modern sports medicine means there is no reason to think he can’t pitch in the next 15 post seasons.

The Yankees and Left Handed Lineups

After two games, the Twinkies are looking awfully susceptible to left handed pitching. While the Yankees expect to throw as much LHP at the Twins as possible, it is worth remembering that the Phillies lineup is also dominated by left handed hitters. As good as their starting pitching looks, New York was able to hold the Phils lineup at bay last October and a potential rematch could bring the same problem for Philadelphia. Does the Philly Fanatic bat right?

Texas Toast

Many are suggesting the Rangers will make some noise in the AL this October and while they did make quick work of Tampa Wednesday and Thursday, I’m still not sold. They limped into the playoffs, key position players are hurt (Josh Hamilton), while others don’t understand what exactly playoffs are (Vladimir Guerrero). Their rotation behind Cliff Lee is also unproven and like many converted relievers, number two starter CJ Wilson may tire from the increased workload that comes with starting.

Rookie Showdown

If anyone wants to get acquainted with the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year, they should be watching the Giants/Braves series. If you are betting against both Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, you might as well cut off your thumb and give it to your bookie now. My vote goes to Posey (because he has to catch Tim Lincecum), but watching Heyward’s combination of speed and power in the middle of the Braves lineup makes for a good debate and an even better NLDS matchup.

The Yankees “Clutch” Players

Its pretty hard to listen to announcers canonize Yankee players for their “clutch” performance abilities. Is it really true that Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter are really that clutch? Sure they are the all time hits/saves/wins/obnoxious first pump leaders, but that has more to do with the expanded playoff format and playing for a team that continually makes the postseason. When it comes to things like batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, winning percentage and career post season ERA only Rivera is present among the top ten all time playoff performers. These Yankees aren’t just that good, they are just there that often.

The Value of the Wild Card and Other September Notes

While watching a game earlier this week, I heard the validity of the Wild Card questioned by one color commentator for a not to be named Midwestern team. In doing so, John Q. Dinosaur brought up what I thought was a dead issue. The Wild Card is great for baseball, and it only takes a passing interest in some of the series and games being played this past week to see why.


What separates baseball from other North American sports is how difficult it is to reach the playoffs. The NFL has two Wild Card teams in each Conference (10 playoff teams), and if the NBA let anymore teams (16) qualify, it would have to start taking WNBA teams. Less than twenty years ago, baseball was only giving FOUR teams a shot at the big dance. The Wild Card era realignment and playoff expansion has ensured that highly competitive teams are not left out of the playoff picture. In 2001 while the Seattle Mariners (on their way to 119 wins), had locked up the AL West in early May, the Oakland A’s, (on their way to a 96 win season), were able to remain in contention and eventually reach the playoffs. This year the Giants, Phillies, Padres, Braves and Rockies are competing for three playoff spots instead of only two. All of these teams should finish win at least 90 wins, and a winning percentage higher than over half the teams reaching the playoffs in the NHL or NBA this year.


The most common argument against the Wild Card is that it makes winning the division meaningless. Anyone who watched the Rays and Yankees series over the past two weeks can attest that this is not the case. The divisional title is still something worth playing for, especially given that it can translate into home field advantage (the Yankees home winning percentage is nearly 100 points higher). In the Rays/Yankees matchups of the past two weeks, knowing that both teams were headed to the post season no matter what the result (as was probably the case with the Braves and Phillies series) did not detract from some of the most entertaining baseball played this month.

The playoffs and stretch drive (minus sports bag giveaway day) are the most exciting time of the year for baseball and baseball fans and the Wild Card only adds to this excitement.

The Phillies Rotation
This week’s series against the Braves has proven the Phillies made the right call pulling the trigger on the Roy Oswalt trade. Not only will the Hamels/Halladay/Oswalt tandem ensure the Phillies are able to fend off Atlanta for the NL East crown, Philadelphia looks to own the best rotation of any contending team. Behind Sabathia, the Yankees are unsure what they will get from Andy Pettite (due to his injured groin) or A.J. Burnett (because he is A.J Burnett). In Tampa, the Rays rotation behind David Price is also faltering (Matt Garza and Jeff Niemans have struggled of late). The AL doesn’t get scared of its senior circuit opponents very often, but this time it has reason to be.

Felix’s Cy Young Bid
If Felix Hernandez is discounted from CY Young contention it shouldn’t be because he has pitched in fewer meaningful games or in a less competitive division – if this is really a criteria that should be taken seriously than all the awards in both leagues should be given to players on the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.

The Debut Of Young Pitching
With Kyle Drabek’s Major League debut I want to issue a caution to fans: do not to get too high or too low on young pitching. No one should have to be reminded of this, as every baseball fan can tell you about a young pitcher that broke their heart. Whether it was someone who blew out their arm pitching for Dusty Baker (Mark Prior) or someone who just didn’t pan out (Todd Van Poppel), young pitching is one of the most unpredictable commodities in the sport. The news isn’t all bad – for every Todd Van Poppel, there is a pitcher who surprises us and puts together a nice career despite rising through the minors completely unnoticed (Jamie Moyer). In any case pitchers take time (to develop or flame out) and we need to be sensitive to this learning curve, even though it’s often longer than we’d like it to be.

Josh Johnson Is Shut Down
When your home starts consist of pitching in front of 2,000 Miami Dolphin season ticket holders and the cast of Jersey Shore, you’re probably not going to garner much attention. But to give you an idea of how good Josh Johnson is, before he was shut down last week, he had been pitching with significant shoulder problems throughout the second half. During that time, he was in so much pain, his ERA ballooned to 3.50 (he still finished the year with an ERA under 3.00). AL centric fans like myself should remember that Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball and his accomplishments should be celebrated even before he gets traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.

In Defense of Moneyball

Since Michael Lewis released Moneyball in 2003, the book has been met with criticisms from sports journalists, loudmouths and people within the game. Recently on Bill Simmons’ BS Report, sports writer Buzz Bissinger (author of Friday Night Lights) offered the latest set of criticisms. Given Bissinger’s attack, the announcement of the Moneyball movie (if Brad Pitt was playing one of my rivals I would be taking shots too), and the recent struggles of the Oakland A’s I feel it is important to defend why the themes of Moneyball have been and still are, relevant to major league baseball.

One criticism Bissinger posed was that Billy Beane merely got lucky. According to Bissinger, Beane was able to catch lightning in a bottle when 3 ace-caliber pitchers all developed and rose to the major leagues at the same time: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Bissinger asserts (and rightly) that these three pitchers played a major and understated role in Oakland’s success. What Bissinger doesn’t acknowledge is that it was Beane’s unorthodox evaluation of pitching that allowed him to acquire these pitchers in the first place. In Moneyball, Lewis describes how many teams passed on drafting Barry Zito because of his lack of velocity. Ignoring Zito because of his 87 mph fastball was something Beane saw as an oversight. Where other teams saw nothing, Beane saw a pitcher who didn’t give up walks, something that would translate into success in the major leagues. Bissinger is right to attribute Oakland’s success to the dominance of the big three, but he is wrong if he fails to acknowledge Beane’s role in seeing value in these pitchers while others didn’t.

One of the most common criticisms of the Beane/Moneyball philosophy, (and one echoed by Bissinger) is that Beane completely ignores things like heart, player makeup and team chemistry in building a team. These critics like to paint Beane and his crew as emotionally devoid automatons that see computers and statistics as the exclusive means to winning in major league baseball. This criticism also ignores much of the approach to building a team that Lewis outlines. Beane sees makeup as a major factor in assessing players. In the book, Beane describes an experience from his own playing days of how Lenny Dykstra was able to draw on every success while letting failures roll right off his back. This was something Beane saw as crucial to the makeup of an MLB player, and something he wasn’t able to do himself during his own playing career. This focus on makeup is one of the reason’s Beane valued all around good guy Nick Swisher as highly as he did during the amateur draft while passing on other players. Lewis goes as far as to outline an entire ranking system that Beane and his scouts used to evaluate a players based on makeup and character prior to the draft. To accuse Beane of not caring about makeup is like accusing Paris Hilton of reading too much, it’s just not true.

Other shots at the A’s system include pointing out that Oakland teams did not excel at getting on base despite the value placed on OBP, or that highly touted A’s prospects like Jeremy Brown fizzled out without making an impact in the majors. While the above-mentioned things are undoubtedly true this does not mean that Oakland’s system has failed. Almost ten years after the book has been written, no one can debate the value of the statistical analysis that Beane popularized throughout baseball (although Lewis gives much credit to Sandy Alderson, Bill James and the STATS Inc. homeboys before Beane). A whole school of GM’s have begun to emulate the work of Beane (Theo Epstein, JP Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta). Baseball may be about heart, but the statistical revolution has show that it may be a little more about numbers than some people would care to admit. And yes, many of Beane’s prospects have failed to make an impact in the major leagues but so did John Ford-Griffin and Dave Parrish (look at the Yankees draft record during the same period if these names are unfamiliar).

These failures have more to do with Beane’s situation in Oakland than his lack of skill as a GM. Critics need to remember that Beane was and is working with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. With little margin for error, it becomes about getting the best players you can within a budget, not the best players period. Would Beane have drafted players above Jeremy Brown if he had more money to sign draft picks? Of course. Would his team have a higher OBP if he could afford to sign or keep players that get on base? Definitely.

There are still many people that want to reject the lessons and ideas put forth in Moneyball. Casting Jonah Hill to play Paul DePodesta makes this increasingly clear. Ultimately, Moneyball and the work of Billy Beane in Oakland is not about on base percentage and strike throwing pitchers, it is about finding inefficiencies in the market for baseball players that allow the A’s to compete. As skills like OBP have become valued properly (i.e. other teams flush with cash want to sign players with these skills sets) Beane has been forced to find other inefficiencies. The A’s recent struggles have suggested that he may not have been able to find the next great inefficiency to exploit. However, this search for inefficiencies will always be important and valuable to fielding a winning baseball team, whether it is through exploiting statistics, signing undervalued veterans (ESPN’s Rob Nyer has suggested this may be the next market inefficiency), or using raccoon meat in concession stand hotdogs. That is why the lessons of Moneyball should not be overlooked.

2010 Trade Deadline Advice

Blue Jays: Hold Jose

With the Jays sitting one game over five hundred in the AL East this year, they are in sell mode and rightfully so. While Toronto should try to move players (John Buck, Lyle Overbay, the entire bullpen) that will bring back prospects, one player that shouldn’t be moved just yet is Jose Bautista. While it is true that Jose Bautista is in the midst of a career year and his value will never be higher, the Jays may benefit from holding onto the AL home run leader.

He plays above average defense at two different positions (3B and RF), a versatility that can be valuable to a team that could look significantly different in 2011. The Jays may finish the year with their lowest OBP in franchise history (which definitely explains why they are losing games 2-1 to Cleveland). Bautista provides reasonable on base skills (.356 OBP) for a team that is in dire need of taking every walk they can get. Bautista is arbitration eligible and due for a hefty raise this offseason given his 2010 production, but let’s remember that he is still only 29, and this year’s production may not be a fluke. If they offer arbitration, the Jays will only be on the hook for paying Bautista next year, and could even trade him at the 2011 deadline if he continues his torrid pace. If not, he could continue to get on base, play above average defense wherever they need him and hit for some power without costing a fortune long term.

Phillies: Take a Shot at It

Yes, Philly has had some offensive troubles, but they should be sorted out as players return from the DL. Everyone knows what is really keeping Philadelphia from their third straight NL pennant: pitching. How good would this team have looked with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee? The Phillies need to add another top tier starting pitcher, and solidify their bullpen. Roy Oswalt, despite numerous roadblocks, (Houston owner Drayton McLean will probably ask for Chase Utley in return, his massive contract will need to be dealt with and Oswalt for some crazy reason, would rather finish his year in Houston than Philadelphia) would be a great fit.

Any of the Jay’s relievers (minus Kevin Gregg) would help solidify the pen. If Zack Grienke is available, he could be a more attractive option than Oswalt. If they can’t land an ace, Ted Lilly is another quality starter that is said to be available and could act as an alternative. If the Phillies want to solidify their status as an NL dynasty and hang with the big boys from the AL East, they need to hold onto Jayson Werth, and upgrade their pitching before its too late.

Angels: Add a Bat

While there will be much debate as to whether or not it was the smartest move to acquire Dan Haren with the team sitting seven games out of first place, this weekend’s trade definitely says the Angels are going all in. Given that they have declared themselves in the race, they need to do everything they can to find offensive help.

Mike Napoli is hitting well and doing a sufficient job filling in at first, but the team needs to replace the middle of the order presence left by Kendry Morales. That middle of the order bat is not Alberto Callapso. There is a reason the Adam Dunn to the Angels rumor has been circulating for years; he would be a great fit. Conspiracy theory: the Angels plan on flipping Dan Haren for a bat.

The White Sox Need to Stand Pat

Despite sitting atop the AL Central standings, the White Sox should not be aggressively pursuing players at the deadline. Kenny Williams and the Sox need remember that Jake Peavy is hurt, they are fighting with the Twins and Tigers, and would still be sitting in third place if it weren’t for one massive winning streak (right before the All-Star break). Yes the playoffs is a crapshoot where anything can happen, but even if the ChiSox sneak into the dance can anyone really see them beating the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays? The White Sox don’t need to be sellers, but given the trades they made last year (acquiring Alex Rios and Peavy), it would serve their long-term interests to not give up more prospects and hope they can win with their current team.

Happy Trails KGJ

Last Wednesday night when Ken Griffey Jr. retired, the baseball world unanimously agreed that it was sending off one of the game’s all time greats. For someone like me who grew up in the 1990s, Ken Griffey Jr. won’t just be remembered as one of baseball’s all-time greats, he will be remembered as a player who’s combination of ability and personality will leave him untouched as the greatest and most influential baseball player I will ever watch.


As a kid in the 1990s, Griffey was the obvious choice as a favorite player. It wasn’t because he was the best player in baseball (which he was), it was because he had so much fun playing baseball, and that’s why he was so easy to relate to. As focused on winning as Junior was, he exuded a love for the game that appears to be missing in most dominant athletes. When you think of superstars like Kobe Bryant, Alexander Ovechkin and Tiger Woods, these athletes convey first and foremost a love of competition and winning. Griffey, every bit as talented as the above mentioned, will be remembered for having fun: No one can forget the gigantic smile on Junior’s face when scored the winning run in the 1995 ALDS or his ear to ear grins when robbing some flabbergasted hitter of a home run. Griffey’s disassociation with the “win at all costs mentality” (coupled with his lack of interest in working out) can no doubt be one of the reasons he has left baseball as one of the only players of his era, entirely removed suspicion of performance enhancing drug use.


Not only did Griffey embody the child-like virtue of having fun, he also never lost the young person’s propensity to play the game hard. There was no wall KG wasn’t willing to crash into, and no ball he wasn’t willing to lay out for. This is what made him so exciting to watch. Sure Barry Bonds was raking, but when did he rob anyone of a home run? While Griffey’s willingness to slide, dive, or crash into anything may have lead to a few more injuries, (the catch that broke his wrist in 1995 is still one of the greatest ever) it also led to the highlight reel plays that made him so thrilling to watch.


What is not to be lost in celebrating Junior’s love for the game, was just how talented a player he was. Given the rash of injuries he suffered throughout his time in Cincinnati, last Wednesday’s announcement sparked many baseball commentators to ask “what could have been?” if Griff had stayed healthy. “What could have been?” is something that you ask high school football players, draft day phenoms, and the writers of Lost. This is not a question that should be asked in relation to Ken Griffey Jr., because of what he did do. He finished his career as the dominant all around player of his generation, one of the greatest home run hitters (5th on the all time list) and center fielders (10 consecutive Gold Gloves) of all time.


Numbers alone will illustrate that KGJ had one of the great careers in major league baseball history. Numbers aside, what makes Ken Griffey Jr. so special to me is not that he hit so many home runs, but how much he loved hitting them; not that he was a great defensive outfielder, but how hard he went after every ball. That combination of talent and love for the game won’t be matched by another player for a very long time.

What to do With a Surprising Amount of Sock

Toronto’s offence seemingly just keeps rolling. After a weekend in which the Blue Birds hit six home runs on Friday night and scored twelve runs two days later, it is safe to say that no one saw this year’s tater surge coming. Toronto is far and away out homering the rest of baseball, and it is in large part due to many pleasant surprises in the Jays lineup: Kevin Youkilis Jr. (John Buck) and Alex Gonzalez are both on pace for career highs in ding dongs. Edwin Encarnacion came off the DL to hit 5 bombs in one weekend, and Jose Bautista leads the majors in homers, no one saw this coming. While it is easy to get excited about this unexpected power surge and a 27-20 start; I am hoping that cooler heads prevail inside the Jays organization and this season is still treated as the first year of a rebuilding process.

Treating this team as one that is rebuilding means several things for the currently surging Jays. With Bautista, Encarnacion and Fred Lewis all exceeding expectations, creating playing time for Travis Snider will prove to be a challenge. Developing young players that will become cornerstones of the franchise should still be priority number one (unless we plan on singing Alex Gonzalez long term). Hopefully someone that has the potential to become an impact player like Snider doesn’t have to ride the pine because Cito wants to play the hot hand of Fred Lewis.

Despite the Jay’s impressive home run total, this offence needs to be put into perspective. Friday against Arizona the team hit six dingers and STILL lost. While the Jays may be leading the league in homers, they sit 12th in the 14 team AL in on base percentage, which is not the sign of a dominant offensive team and suggests the Jays will be fumbling to score runs if the home run fountain dries up. The Jays coaching staff needs to be preaching patience along with power if this team wants to truly develop into an offensive force.

Lastly, the surprise offensive output of so many different Blue Jay hitters should be used to do what rebuilding teams do best: trade for younger players. Many around baseball are suggesting that Jose Bautista is for real: he has made adjustments to his swing that will translate into sustained results (it is also important to note that despite his .241 average, he has a respectable OBP. Of .354). That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t sell high on players like Alex Gonzalez, Fred Lewis, and John Buck (on the pitching side of things Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor could be attractive to contending teams). If any of these chips can be turned into productive young players, they Jays should pull the trigger.

Despite this offensive surge the Jays are still facing several challenges: they sit in third place, 7 games behind the Rays, the fourth place Red Sox are beginning to surge and Kevin Gregg is currently closing. As exciting as the team is playing, taking the long view in this situation by focusing on player development and building for the future will ensure that two years from now the are contending and not just exciting.

So It's Been Four Weeks...

We are four weeks into the 2010 season and before we start buying Alex Gonzalez jersey’s (don’t do it) or putting all our money on the San Diego Padres to win the NL (don’t do it), let’s take a minute to evaluate some of the unexpected things that have happened this April and predict what surprises are for real and what teams and players will come back down to earth.

Will Travis Snider Hit Under .200?

Things look bleak for the Jays sophomore, but don’t worry everyone, stat heads to the rescue! Snider has one of the lowest batting average on balls in play in the major leagues. Translation: he has run into a streak of bad luck and is swinging the bat much better than his average suggests. If Cito keeps with him (and he should) Travis’ numbers will improve.

Red Sox Woes

Let’s not freak out Red Sox Nation, the team is still playing .500 baseball but there are reasons for concern. There were questions about Boston’s offence coming into the season, and with injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with the continual struggles of David Ortiz the offence has been more anemic that the BoSox are used to. This may be a problem (although one that can be addressed via trade) in the coming months, but what is really responsible for the Red Sox slow start is poor pitching and defense. Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey have ERA’s over 5.00 and Victor Martinez has throw out 2 baserunners all month. I wouldn’t expect either of these trends to continue all season long: Lackey and Beckett are quality pitchers and should rebound as the season moves along and Daisuke Matsuzaka is replacing Wakefield in the rotation. While he is no Johnny Bench, Victor Martinez is a better defensive catcher than how he is playing (he has thrown out 30% of runners in past seasons). Once the catching and pitching are sorted, the Red Sox will be in a better position to judge how the 2010 team will perform.

Is Andruw Jones Going to Rake All Year?

Over the last few years, Andruw Jones’ production has deteriorated to the point that his signing with the White Sox this winter went virtually unnoticed. This year he reported to camp in great shape and has already hit 8 big flies for the Sox. Can he keep it up? There are reasons to believe he can: He is playing his home games at US Cellular Field, one of the best hitters parks in the American League, he is protected in the order by Paul Konerko and Carlos Quinten but most importantly, Jones appears to be more motivated than he has been in years past (hence the better shape). Jones’ talent coupled with his newfound work ethic, should ensure that he continues to produce all year for the South Siders.

Seattle’s Offensive Struggles

Every sports writer in America is muttering “I told you so” over this one. What I can’t understand is why Jermaine Dye is still sitting at home without a contract.

Are the Mets for Real?

Let’s wait and see. I expect the New York offence to produce enough to contend but it all depends on their pitching. Right now, Mike Pelfrey has an ERA under 2.00, Jon Niese is pitching incredibly well for a rookie and Oliver Perez is still the most expensive fifth starter in baseball. Its only May and I do expect that these two young pitchers come back to earth but if they can continue put up decent numbers behind Johan Santana, the Mets may not overtake the Phillies but they do have a shot at staying in playoff contention.

2010 Preview: National League East

The Favourite - Philadelphia Phillies

Far and away the best team in the NL East, the two time National League Champs are still the favourite to win both their division and the National League. With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the Phils are also the sentimental choice for Blue Jays fans that are realistic about their own teams 2010 possibilities. In the last few years the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the upper echelon of MLB teams, so to be division favourites is not enough anymore, the Phils are trying to hang with and beat the Yankees and Red Sox every year. With that in mind, the Phillies have a few holes that the other super powers do not. The Philadelphia bullpen was a mess in 2009 but I expect Brad Lidge to rebound; he was struggling in Houston when he was traded to the Phillies two years ago and he responded by having one of the most dominant seasons ever by a relief pitcher. The signing of Danys Baez should also help fortify the relief corps. The starting rotation behind Halladay also contains question marks: can Cole Hamels bounce back? Can J.A. Happ continue to improve (and contribute during the playoffs) and can Jamie Moyer stave off death long enough to complete a 40th season in the major leagues? Many baseball people suggest that Cole Hamels was particularly unlucky last year, citing strong peripheral stats (a similar strikeout to walk ratio as his breakout 2007 season and an extremely high opponents batting average on balls in play), on top of this, pitching behind Roy Halladay can only have a positive effect (just ask A.J. Burnett). A return to form by Hamels and continued improvement by Happ is likely and should solidify a rotation that in a worst case scenario can be put on the shoulders of one pitcher (Doc is that good). The offence is one of the best in the majors, and should only be solidified by the addition of Placido Polanco. Don't be surprised however if you see a regression by Raul Ibanez (age) and Jayson Werth (who is coming off a career year). Make no mistake this Phillies team is strong and any questions they have are the questions of a championship caliber team not a team that may or may not win the NL East.

The Challengers

Atlanta Braves

After an unprecedented run, 2010 will be Bobby Cox's last season managing in the major leagues, and this makes the Braves a sentimental pick for many people around baseball. In 2009 the Braves had one of the best rotations in baseball, and despite an offseason trade of Javier Vazquez the rotation is still one of the team's strengths. Even with Vazquez gone, the development of Atlanta's young hurlers Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson should offset the loss and allow the rotation to pitch the way it did in 2009. In the bullpen, many questioned the Braves decision to sign 39-year-old Billy Wagner (only a year removed from Tommy John surgery) to close, although his supporters point out that he did look good late last year with Boston. The offence also has a few question marks: Chipper Jones has vowed to retire if he can't elevate his game above its 2009 level and the production the Braves can extract from Troy Glaus (injury) and Jason Heyward (inexperience) is yet to be determined. Despite these uncertainties I expect Bobby Cox to pull the rabbit out of his hat one last time and keep the Tomahawk Choppers competitive in 2010.

New York Mets

There is no team in the major leagues more dysfunctional than the New York Mets. This offseason, headlines about the Mets included their very questionable acquisitions (they actually traded FOR Gary Matthews Jr. and bid against themselves for Jason Bay), their failed negotiations with several free agent catchers (Bengie Molina, Yorvit Torreabla) and very public arguments about whether or not it was ok for Carlos Beltran to go under the knife. When all the dust had settled, the Mets still had no one to start behind Johan Santana and an offence that does not play well to their cavernous home ballpark. The Mets are an expensive team so I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow stay in the race, but I will be equally unsurprised if they melt down yet again.

Florida Marlins

With the signing of Josh Johnson, the Marlins have assured their fans that they will not turn into the southern version of the Montreal Expos and in Hanley Ramirez the Marlins have one of the most exciting and dynamic offensive players in the major leagues. While the Marlins have more bright spots than they have had in recent years (Cody Ross, Chris Coghlan, Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco) but they made need one more year for players like Anibal Sanchez, Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez to develop before they can mount a strong challenge in the NL East.

Maybe Next Year

Washington Nationals

For the last few years, the Nationals have consistently been the worst team in the major leagues. That may change this year. They will still be awful and finish last in the NL East, but they may not be the worst team in baseball. Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham form a respectable middle of the lineup but Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and John Lannan at the top of the rotation spells trouble for the Nats in 2010.

2010 NL Central Preview

The Favorite

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the NL Central favourites for 4 reasons: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter and Wainwright are dominant the top of the rotation, while Pujols and Holliday anchor the middle of the Cards lineup. After that it comes down to whatever manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan can milk out of the rest of the roster. Luckily for Cardinals fans, the coaching staff has a pretty good record of turning Kyle Loshe into sugar (why else would they sign Brad Penny?). The recent signing of Felipe Lopez should help in stabilizing the offence and questions about the back end of the rotation and bullpen are minor enough that it should not hinder the Cards from repeating as division champs

The Contenders

Chicago Cubs

The 2009 season was somewhat of a disaster for the Cubs. Jim Hendry was the only person on the planet who believed the two angriest people in baseball - Lou Pinella and Milton Bradley - could get along with each other. Geovany Soto was hit with the dreaded sophomore jinx and the stocky backstop took a step backwards, while Alfonso Soriano lived up to his contract in much the same manner as Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has. The Cubs have added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to shore up their outfield and I expect Mike Fontenot to have a better season than last year in the Cubs infield (he hit almost 40 points lower than his 2008 average). Last year’s disaster season still yielded 83 wins for the Cubs, so with Mad Milton out of the picture there is no reason to believe the Cubs won’t be in the thick of the race this year as well.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bernie Brewer better invest in a good pair of overalls, because with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun socking dingers, Bernie will be wearing out the seat of his pants going down the slide at Miller Park every time the Brew Crew hit a home run. Along with Braun and Fielder, I expect improved power numbers from Corey Hart and third baseman Casey McGehee. However there are still some question marks in the Brewers lineup (Gregg Zaun is their starting catcher) and like many teams, the Brewers will go as far as their pitching can take them. I expect Doug Davis, Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan to pitch to their league average levels, but if Yovani Gallardo can improve and Manny Para can get his ERA under six the Brewers can stay in the race.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are this year’s sexy pick for surprise contender in the NL and I can see why they are such an alluring pick. The team is fairly strong offensively – the only major question mark is center field, where the Reds will most likely start rookie Drew Stubbs. While regression could be a problem for veterans such as Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez and Orlando Cabrera, young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should continue to improve on their 2009 seasons. Veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo (who recorded a CD with the same name as my blog) should keep the pressure off promising young Reds starters Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, and Johnny Cueto. This makes the Reds just as dangerous (although more unproven) as the Brewers and Cubs in challenging for the division title.

Maybe Next Year

Houston Astros

Carlos Lee is still hitting baseballs as hard as he hits the clubhouse spread, and that is a good thing for the Astros. What is not a good thing for the Astros is Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon were their biggest free agent signings this offseason (no offence Pedro Feliz). Houston’s pitching is still below where it needs to be to contend in the NL Central in 2010.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Well, maybe not next year, maybe two years. But hey, PNC Park is gorgeous.

2010 NL West Preview

The Favorite

Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite losing several key players to free agency (Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson) and one to a lack of interest in baseball (Manny Ramirez). This is still the Dodgers division to lose. They have a young core of hitters in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and James Loney that compliment veteran hitters like Ramierz, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake well. While the rotation lacks a true ace (it is very possible that Clayton Kershaw could prove that statement wrong this year), the Dodgers rotation does have depth. The bullpen is also strength as Jonathan “brick house” Broxton has quickly become a shutdown closer. Two keys for the Dodgers in repeating as division champs are how quickly Russ Martin can recover from injury and if Vicente Padilla can be the same pitcher he was after the Dodgers acquired him late last season.

The Contenders

Colorado Rockies

The only reason there isn’t more discussion of Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez is that no one can spell his name correctly (this is also the reason more Rockies fans don’t have his jersey). The lanky, fire-balling righty is a dominant pitcher with a ton of upside and continues to improve. If Jimenez, Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa can pitch as well as they did last year (a return to form from Jeff Francis would be gravy), Troy Tulowitzki and the thin air at Coors field will take care of the rest.

San Francisco Giants

Offence. Just get some offence.


Arizona Diamondbacks

After a disappointing 2009, the D-backs could be poised for a winning season in 2010 and may surprise some people. If things break right for the D-Backs, don’t be surprised if they are contenders. That being said, much of the team’s success hinges on many unknowns. While the lineup was solidified with the addition of Adam Laroche, will Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds continue to develop? Can Conor Jackson return to form after playing only 30 games in 2009? Will Chris Young ever hit over .210? The rotation could have one of the best one two punches in the game if Brandon Webb (paired with Dan Haren) can return to form after major surgery. There are also questions about Edwin Jackson (who faded badly in the second half of 2009) and Ian Kennedy at the back end of the rotation. The signing of new closer Brandon Lyon (remember him Jays fans?) was also heavily scrutinized this offseason. In a competitive NL West the odds may be against them, but I am not ready to count Arizona out yet.


Maybe Next Year

San Diego Padres

Don’t despair Padres fans. With Jed Hoyer at the helm there is also reason to hope. If Chris Young, Heath Bell or Adrian Gonzalez are traded, Hoyer is the man to make a deal that is right for the Friars. The Padres also have acquired some high ceiling prospects (pitcher Clayton Richard) that should start to contribute sooner rather than later. In the meantime though, other than the above-mentioned players Tony Gwynn (junior of course) is one of the more recognizable faces on the 2010 Padres. Yikes.

It's That Time of Year

Everybody has that one friend. They aren’t a sports fan, they are a sport fan. It’s the guy who watches the completely meaningless Raptors game instead of playoff hockey, or the guy who insists on watching the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in July instead of watching Italy and France in the World Cup final. When it comes to baseball, I am that fan. So with the Olympics in full swing, the only thing that I am interested in is pitchers and catchers reporting to camp and all the great rituals that accompany it.

One great ritual of spring is the reappearance of baseball games on television. This usually occurs once a week starting in mid-March in the form of a Saturday afternoon game. As I mentioned above, these games are not for sports fans but rather only for baseball fans. Only someone who truly loves baseball could put up with (what is often) shots from a single, stationary camera behind home plate and the split squad rosters that ensure you won’t see a single player that will make the opening day roster play more than two innings. These games are so lax that the players don’t even wear real jerseys. Despite these glaring shortcomings, there is nothing like watching that first game of the year to remind myself that I really only watch football because there is nothing else on.

Another great ritual of springtime is the requisite smack talk that occurs between rival teams. This year has been so exception. Not sure who the best pitcher in the NL East is? Don’t worry, Johan Santana will tell you. Not sure who will win the division? No sweat, David Wright knows. All that is missing so far in the Mets/Phillies smack talk is for Roy Halladay to tell a ‘yo momma’ joke aimed at Carlos Beltran. As ludicrous and misinformed as these predictions can be, they a little drama can keep things interesting during a time of year when starting players only play a few innings a game.

Spring training is a great time of the year to be a baseball fan for many reasons but the biggest and best of these reasons is that everything is still possible and nothing has been proven untrue: Rookies will perform the same way in the majors that they did in the minors, veterans won’t regress, injured players will return to form, and yes that awful year he had last year was just an aberration (or the last few in the case of Lyle Overbay). Whatever the uncertainty looms large for your favorite team, the cold hard realities of the major league season have not yet kicked in and deflated their chances. For the Jays this means that as of right now Ricky Romero can contend for the Cy Young, Shaun Marcum will return to form, Travis Snider will hit 40 homers, Vernon Wells will earn half his money and Jose Bautista will not play like Jose Bautista.

For many teams not expected to contend (and the Mets), the season can be a long one, but when spring training starts, we all still have the same record. This makes spring training worth watching not only for the rituals and but the hope and excitement that may not be there for fans of every team come June or July. And that’s what makes spring training exciting for all sports fans.

Keeping the Burner On: A Few Ideas for the End of the Hot Stove Season

Boston Bring in a Big Bat

Yeah they upgraded their pitching (Lackey) and defense (Beltre and Cameron) but the defending champion Yankees added pitching and of their own (not to mention Curtis Granderson). Boston has a deep and versatile lineup but if the season started tomorrow would anyone in Beantown really be comfortable with Shrek (David Ortiz), J.D. Drew, or Victor Martinez hitting fourth? The Sox still lack the dominant middle of the order bat that is needed to usurp the Yankees as AL champs. Not only are the Yankees as rich as ever but it looks like they are starting to make very sound baseball decisions to go with their money. If Boston wants to keep up with the Steinbrenners Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez may be worth a handful of prospects.

Really Detroit? Johnny Damon?

Only months after trading the most popular man in Michigan due to payroll issues, the Tigers are thinking of signing Johnny Damon. Damon is still a productive player and could provide to be a steal if he comes at the right price, but if I was a Tigers fan I would not take kindly to seeing Granderson and his affordable contract being shipped to the Yankees only to see him replaced with an older and comparably priced outfielder (and Jose Valverde).

Wang, Dye, Blalock Go West!

While Seattle has been deemed one of this offseason’s winners, the team still appears to be lacking power and starting pitching depth. If the team took a flyer on Chien-Ming Wang, Jermaine Dye or Hank Blalock (either seems like a better fit than Eric Byrnes) it would solidify the team as a playoff contender. Bringing back Jarrod Washburn wouldn’t hurt either.

Toronto: Bring Big Hot Carl(os)

This might be a tough year for the Jays so what better way to distract fans than bringing back and aging icon? Hey it worked in Seattle. Carlos could provide us with a link to the “glory days” (those 75-85 win teams of the 2000s) and make us forget what the Jays are doing on the field in 2010. Plus he is still probably a better hitter than many of the Jays regulars…if only he could play on the left side of the infield.

Alex Anthopoulos Interm Report Card

As Alex Anthopoulos nears the end of his first hundred days on the job as Blue Jays GM, things have run a little smoother in the front office than Blue Jays fans are used to. He hasn’t called out Adam Dunn or sent anyone to the minor leagues for calling him a pimp. He has also made some significant moves that will shape the roster for years to come. The biggest of these moves was Anthopoulos’ signing of outfielder Jeremy Reed to a minor league contract. Anthopoulos also traded Roy Halladay.


Anthopoulos’ three way trade with the Phillies and Mariners was the biggest of the winter, and left the Jays with Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud and Brett Wallace (who was acquired for Michael Taylor, the third player Toronto received). While losing Roy may have been tough to swallow for Blue Jays fans, it replenished a farm system that was left barren by J.P. Riccardi. Drabek and Wallace are now Toronto’s #1 and #2 prospects according to Baseball America (which leaves me to wonder who J.P. has been drafting for the last three years). On top of Drabek and Wallace, Travis D’Arnaud gives us hope that we won’t have to reacquire Gregg Zaun next winter. Given that Roy was leaving after 2010 and he was closer to free agency than at the July trade deadline, I have to give Alex credit for making the best of a bad situation and landing some prospects with more upside than anyone else in the Blue Jays farm system.


Anthopoulos’ other significant moves this winter were to sign Alex Gonzalez, John Buck and trade for Seattle’s Brandon Morrow. John Buck and Brendan Morrow both filled holes (although the Jays definitely need more than one starting pitcher) and Anthopoulos was smart not to overspend when the Jays still seem a couple years away from contention. The Alex Gonzalez signing now gives Toronto two defensively skilled, light hitting shortstops which led me to wonder why the move was made. Last year’s offensive spike aside, Alex Gonzalez is a pretty comparable offensive player to John McDonald and everyone in Toronto would love to see Johnny Mac get a chance at a starting job. That being said, the Gonzalez signing is relatively low cost and shouldn’t hinder the Jays moving forward.


Anthopoulos’ first hundred days as GM involved all the moves made by a rebuilding of a team, while that may be depressing news for Jays fans, it appears as though at least we’ve found someone who is going about it the right way.

One Team to Watch in 2010

One of the noisiest teams this off season has been the Seattle Mariners. Second year GM Jack Zduriencik has made several big deals that have lead many to suggest that Seattle is one of the teams to watch in 2010. Moneyballers have also been singing the praises of “Big Z”, calling him one of the best general managers in the game and many are picking Seattle as this year’s AL West favorites. Now there is NO ONE that wants to see Junior make it to the big dance in what is probably his last season more than I do, but I am a little more cautious about the 2010 Mariners.

Make no mistake about it, Jack Zduriencik is trying to build the Mariners around speed, pitching and defense, and this year’s major offseason acquisitions (Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee and Casey Kotchman) highlight this. Given that Safeco Field is bigger than Jay Leno’s chin (I’m with Coco) you can’t fault Z for building his team this way, but the fact is that even teams built on pitching and D need power threats, something that Seattle doesn’t appear to have. Last season’s two biggest power threats Russell Branyan and Adrian Beltre are gone, inheriting the middle of the line-up is Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez and Milton Bradley - not exactly a murderer’s row. Gutierrez and Lopez are good hitters with power, but are they really number 3 or 4 hitters on a playoff team? We also need to remember that if someone sneezes in Bradley’s vicinity he may take it as a personal attack against him (or an act of racism) and become totally useless to the team. Even someone as likable as Ken Griffey may not be able to keep Mad Milton happy for 8 months. Assuming that Big Griff doesn’t put up his 1993 numbers, this leaves the M’s lacking a bona fide power threat in the middle of their order

The Mariners have other concerns as well. While Seattle’s pitching is appeared to be much improved with the addition of Cliff Lee, the Mariners will be without Jarred Washburn and Brendan Morrow, big contributors to last year’s staff. While Lee improves the staff, the loss of these two pitchers needs to be considered, which makes the staff only marginally better at best. Also troubling is last year’s run differential of -52 which suggests that the 85 wins the team accumulated are not entirely reflective of the team’s performance – the M’s may have enjoyed more than their fair share of lucky bounces. Catching is another major issue. Can anyone name a catcher on their 40 man roster?

Yes, the Angels are significantly worse than they were last year and Oakland is still at least a couple years away, but this Mariners team may not be as good as advertised. The 2007 M’s were a team built on pitching and defence on the cusp of a breakthrough. That off season they made the acquisitions necessary (Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva) to put them over the top. On top of their 100 loss season the next year, Seattle fans get to see Adam Jones rake in Baltimore as a reminder of their misplaced optimism. For Junior’s sake let’s hope that 2010 isn’t a little piece of history repeating.