Thursday, April 26, 2012

Jamie Moyer, Brandon Morrow and the Michael Pineda Injury



Jamie Moyer
One of my favourite baseball writers, Keith Law, has been very tough on Jamie Moyer’s recent comeback. Like many analytically oriented writers, he is quick to mention the power of the “narrative” in Moyer’s performance. Everyone gets that Moyer is running more on fumes at this point. Everyone understands that he hasn’t faced one of the leagues better offences and that he probably can’t continue to be an above average league starter. But can’t you give him at least a little bit of credit? The man is almost fifty years old and doing something that the vast majority of the population can’t do at their physical peak. Sure it’s more story than substantial analysis but some stories are worth telling. Kudos to you Jamie Moyer, I hope you keep getting the attention.

Brandon Nolasco
As a Blue Jays fan, it’s hard to accept things we just don’t want to be true. It was hard for us to come to terms with the fact that Aaron Hill isn’t a 30 home run hitter, or that the team isn’t one “proven closer” away from contention. We have to learn to live with the fact that Adeiny Hechavarria may not ever hit enough to play in the Major Leagues, or that Adam Lind may not revert to his 2009 form. The scariest of these hard truths is that Brandon Morrow may never realize his otherworldly potential and become an ace. Morrow is now entering his third year as a full time starter with the Jays and has not yet been able to harness his potential, despite strong peripheral stats (xFIP and K/9). I know it’s very early in the season, but Morrow also has two full years of pitching exactly like he has thus far to include in his sample size. I don’t want to accept it, but someday soon, we might need to take Morrow to be one of the rare pitchers who despite positive peripheral statistics and enormous raw stuff, is not able to translate this into on field results. Like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco


Michael Pineda Injury

The news that Michael Pineda is out for the year with a torn labrum has led many (including Baseball Prospectus/Grantland writer Rany Jazayerli) to echo a familiar refrain: “this injury shows that hitting prospects are more valuable than pitching prospects”. The injury definitely throws a wrench into the Yankees plans for 2012; and the injury definitely raises question marks about Pineda’s future, but even with Pineda sidelined for the year, I think it’s a little premature to classify the Pineda trade as a failure. The Yankees have a potent offence. They are third in all of baseball in runs scored. That number shouldn’t drop too much as the season continues. The Yankees didn’t need Jesus Montero. They did need another top of the rotation pitcher. Teams have also started locking up their young starting pitchers. Matt Cain, Jarred Weaver, Brandon Morrow, Cory Luebke, and Madison Bumgarner have all signed contract extensions in the past twelve months. There are fewer and fewer high quality pitchers getting to free agency. Young pitching may be more volatile than young hitting, but that doesn’t mean it’s not more valuable. Especially to a team that has offence to spare and a hole in the top of their rotation. Remember that Pineda is out for the year, his career isn’t over. Even if the trade doesn’t work out, Brian Cashman and the Yankees shouldn’t be criticized for taking an area of strength (surplus of hitting) and trying to fill an area of weakness. Even if that pitcher gets hurt.

Monday, April 16, 2012

The All “Put Me In Coach” Team



Nothing is more frustrating to a baseball fan than watching a player you think can contribute ride the pine. If you were in charge, things would be different; and the team would be better off because of it. Like any other fan, I think I know better. Here is a list of players I would like to see penciled into the starting lineup every night.

Brandon Belt – Giants, 1B/OF
Technically he has a Major League job right now, but despite being one of the Giants better offensive players, Belt is always one 0-4 away from a demotion . As far as anyone can tell, Belt has been boxed out of the Giants lineup to ensure that 2010 World Series hero Aubrey Huff gets his hacks. The Giants’ handling of Belt is even more confusing given that they are playoff contender that could help improve the team’s anemic offence. If either Bruce Bochy or Brian Sabean could commit to starting Belt (I’m not picky - left field or first base will do), there would be a glut of baseball bloggers who would need to find someone else to lambaste. At least for a little while.

Lonnie Chisenhall - Indians, 3B
Chisenhall, who was called up to the majors last year, has begun the 2012 season at triple A. Chisenhall, may struggle at the major league level in the short term given his issues with plate discipline, but one of the reasons Indians’ management cited in sending him to AAA is that he was pressing at the plate. What better way to alleviate pressure than give him the starting job and the confidence that comes with knowing it’s secure? Cleveland is in need of offensive production, evidenced by the deal the team just negotiated with left fielder Johnny Damon. Chisenhall’s offensive upside is greater than incumbent Jack Hannahan. If the Tribe have any intention of making things interesting for Detroit in the AL Central, getting Chisenhall hitting will be a necessity. They can always have Hannahan ct as a late game defensive replacement if you really need his defence that badly.

Domenic Brown - Phillies, OF
Kevin Goldstein referred to Brown yesterday on twitter as the “East Coast Brandon Belt”. The Phillies are just as offensively starved as the Giants and have no player (they are currently starting Juan Pierre) blocking Brown in leftfield. According to EPSN’s Eric Karabell, Brown’s defence in left field is still very suspect, but he really shouldn’t be held out of a Phillies lineup that is already without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Brown would inject some much needed youth and upside to a lineup that needs to improve if the Phils are going to hang onto their NL East crown.

John Jaso – Mariners, C
Jaso is unlike the other players on this list; he is older and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. That doesn’t mean he isn’t worthy of more playing time, especially in Seattle. Currently, the Mariners are starting Miguel Olivo behind the plate every night. Jaso has started once this season, and that came as the DH. While Olivo can hit for more power than Jaso, that is the only thing he does better than him. Jaso could provide slightly better defence and more importantly, some much needed on-base skills (.341 career OBP) for an offensively challenged Mariners lineup. Olivo needs to hit a lot more than 19 home runs to make up for a .253 OBP. By the way, this is in no way bitterness related to me drafting Jaso as the second catcher in a very deep fantasy baseball league.

Travis Snider – Blue Jays, OF
The longer Snider stays in the minor leagues, the less likely it appears the talented outfielder will realize hit potential with the Blue Jays. According to some Blue Jays bloggers, Snider’s troubles lie in his inability to hit curveballs and lefthanders. At the end of March, the Blue Jays were not convinced that he had remedied the problem enough to strip Eric Thames of his job. Snider has more upside than any other left fielder in Toronto who is close to Major League ready. He is slugging .844 at Triple A this year and probably won’t fix anything that needs fixing in the Pacific Coast League. If Eric Thames struggles, giving Snider 400 at bats to learn on the job would go a long way in telling whether or not he has a future in Toronto. But that’s what we Snider fans have been advocating for the last three years.

Trevor Bauer – D-Backs, P
I am merely echoing what many qualified baseball bloggers and analysts have already said. Sure he is very young and inexperienced, but Bauer is having his way with minor league hitters and wouldn’t need to be more than a back of the rotation starter to be valuable to the Diamondbacks. If he matures quickly, Arizona could have another weapon in the front of their rotation. It doesn’t hurt that Bauer will be facing the pucnless Padres and Giants a good chunk of the time. Like a lot of teams mentioned above, if the Diamondbacks have intentions of contending, why not use every bullet in the chamber you can?

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Not the Splash You’re Thinking Of – Why Chris Iannetta Might be Key to LA’s Success



Everyone knows about the Angels’ big offseason acquisitions. Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson were two of the top players on the market, and some combination of Jerry DiPoto and Arte Moreno were able to woo them both to Anaheim in one afternoon. Now both Pujols and Wilson are good players that should help the Angels compete with the Rangers in the AL West, but one acquisition that may be the key to their success is the less talked about acquisition of catcher Chris Iannetta.

Back in the winter of 2011, the Tony Reagins led Angels were involved in a string of events that resulted in trading Mike Napoli to the Rangers (via the Blue Jays) for Vernon Wells. Aside from taking on the never talked about Vernon Wells contract, the Angels lost their starting catcher. Or at least what should have been their starting catcher (I’m sure we’ve all heard plenty about Mike Scioscia’s displeasure with Napoli). With Napoli’s plus bat and poor catching skills in Texas, the road was paved for Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger to take over catching duties.

The Mathis/Conger catching platoon did not work out well for Los Angeles in 2011, leaving the many analysts who were opposed to giving Jeff Mathis 300 at bats saying “I told you so”. The two players combined for a WAR (Fangraphs’ version) of -0.5 last season. Chris Iannetta posted a 3.2 WAR in 2011 and has posted a WAR over 2 in three of the four seasons since 2008. Even in his abhorrent 2010 season, where he hit under .200, his .318 OBP was still better than Mathis’ and Conger’s. In one of Jerry DiPoto’s most underrated moves thus far, he was able to ween Mike Scioscia off Jeff Mathis and upgrade a position that was a major weakness for LA at the same time. When evaluating a team’s offseason transactions, it’s not just about who they are acquiring; it’s about who they are replacing. That’s why an upgrade at catcher for the Angels is so important, and why replacing Victor Martinez with Prince Fielder in Detroit may not be as impactful as many people believe it will be.

CJ Wilson strengthens an already talented rotation, and Albert Pujols is most definitely an upgrade over Mark Trumbo, but Iannetta provides value at a position that was an absolute black hole for the Angels last season. If the Angels do overtake Texas this season, we will justifiably hear about Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. Let’s just not forget to give Chris Iannetta his credit either.