covering the bases with nick dika

Is He A Steal?

2012-02-19T23:32:00.000-08:00

Earlier today, the Yankees and Pirates finalized a trade that sent AJ Burnett and cash (the latter almost goes without saying) to Pittsburgh for two low level (and apparently low ceiling) minor leaguers. Even before the trade was finalized, there has been a lot of talk about how this trade could be a win for Pittsburgh (Keith Law, Eric Karabell, Eric Seidman). A move to the weaker National League, getting out of a bandbox home ballpark, and a bit of bad luck over the past two years (3.86 xFIP last year) has these analysts suggesting that Burnett can be a valuable pitcher over the remaining two years of his contract. Now, it might be contrarian in me, or maybe it’s the spiteful Blue Jays fan, but here are a few reasons the trade doesn’t make as much sense to me.

As much as AJ Burnett’s statistics over the last few years could have been attributed to some bad luck, some of his periphery statistics (at least in the interpretation of this non-sabermatrician) have been trending in the wrong direction. Since joining the Yankees, Burnett’s walk rates (4.22, 3.76, 3.92) have been higher than any season in his career since 2001. Similarly, his strikeout rate, has been trending in the wrong direction. With the Blue Jays in 2007 and 2008 AJ averaged K rates of 9.56 and 9.39, since joining the Yankees, that rate dropped to 8.18 last year while he posted a 6.99 k/9 rate in 2010. Burnett has also started to lose a tick of velocity on his fastball which averaged 92.7 mph in 2011 after averaging at least 94.2 mph through 2009. AJ Burnett will also pitch this year at age 35, and it isn’t unheard of to see power pitchers decline quickly, when they start to lose their stuff. Even in a best case scenario, a gradual the decline still appears to be already underway for everyone’s favourite enigma.

Suggestions that Burnett will thrive away from Yankee Stadium could be overblown, as remember, he did post some of his best seasons in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. His declining results could be a combination of age, more walks and fewer strikeouts. Burnett’s inability to handle a major media market and thus his ability to rebound from it, may also be overblown. Stories and accusations about Burnett’s inconsist performance have been following him around throughout his time with the small market Marlins and Blue Jays (in terms of media coverage) and not just with the Yankees.

Beyond the concerns listed above, acquiring Burnett seems to make little sense for a Pirates team that is still at least 2 years away from contention in the NL Central. Even if Burnett is a 2.5 win (above replacement) pitcher over the next two years, this is most likely the difference between fielding 74 win team and fielding a 77 win team. The 13 million dollars the Pirates committed to Burnett could have been better spent in the amateur draft (although this has become more difficult with the new CBA), or signing/trading for a player that can help the team when they are ready to contend again in a few years. Trading Burnett for anything of value could also prove to be difficult given his inability (or at least perceived inability) to pitch in the AL East and his reluctance to move to the west coast (he vetoed an earlier trade that would have sent him to the Angels).

Acquiring AJ Burnett is by no means the worst trade made this offseason, and there are definitely some reasons to suggest it could work out for the Bucs. That said, the little argumentative voice inside me says this trade may not be the steal it appears to be.

Give Him A Break: Josh Hamilton Deserves Our Respect

2012-02-11T23:10:00.000-08:00

Much has been written about Josh Hamilton’s January 30th misstep in his ongoing recovery from drug and alcohol problems. While Hamilton’s battle with substance abuse has always been a talking point in the baseball media, the discussion has increased in recent weeks, fuelled no doubt, by the outfielder’s impending free agency. Like any contentious issue, there have been some contentious responses to Hamilton’s most recent slip up. Regrettably, what is overlooked in these responses all of the things Josh Hamilton is doing right.

One of the most important things to remember about Josh Hamilton’s battle with drugs and alcohol is that Hamilton acknowledges his vulnerability and limitation. Not only is this a more human and relatable way to understand a professional athlete, it’s also more realistic. Many people throughout professional sports (and life in general) would benefit from approaching alcohol and drug use like Josh Hamilton. There are most likely many players within Major League baseball that should be dealing with alcohol the same way Hamilton does (trying not to touch it) but choose not to. Hamilton is open about his relationship with drugs and alcohol in a way that other players are not. Typically we only learn of an athlete’s substance abuse if it results in an arrest (Miguel Cabrera’s arrest last offseason as one example). Hamilton is proactive in a way that most people dealing with substance abuse problems are not. This proactivity is valuable tool in his recovery; there is always a better chance of improving at anything (whether it’s dealing with addiction or increasing your OPS against left handed pitching) when you can acknowledge and understand your current limitations. If anyone is going to beat addiction, it’s going to be someone who is actively battling it, not someone who is ignoring the problem.

Unfortunately, last week I read a couple tweets suggesting that Josh Hamilton’s actions were nothing more than a poor choice he made freely. All that kind of statement proves is that whoever is making it has no understanding of what a substance addiction entails, or how the people that suffer from them are required to manage their disease on a daily basis. In the words of Captain Hook – “poor form Jack, poor form”. We should be viewing Josh Hamilton as a success – people that struggle with addictions are always susceptible to relapse. The fact that he has only slipped up (at least publically,) twice in the last five years is admirable. There are many people who struggle with addictions that would love to be able to say the same thing. Josh Hamilton is not perfect, but he handling the most difficult of situations in an admirable way. A way that I hope we can learn from, instead of criticize.

Just Go For It

2012-02-03T17:19:00.000-08:00

It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.

$214 Million Dollars of Upgrades

2012-01-30T19:26:00.000-08:00

With almost a week passing since Prince Fielder singed with the Detroit Tigers, I thought I would do the disservice of writing another blog post about the hefty slugger’s move to the Motor City. While much has already been made about the Tigers’ new 500 pound corner infield, I think it’s important to remember that even though Mike Ilitch’s heart was in the right place, spending big money on Prince Fielder isn’t necessarily the best path to remaining competitive and winning championships for the Tigers given their current roster.

Mike Ilitch spent his hard earned pizza empire millions (of which I have personally contributed via the $5 Hot n’ Ready) with the hope that his Detroit Tigers are able to win a championship in the next few years. While it’s easy to appreciate an owner spending big money to bring home a World Series, I’m not sure if the Tigers’ play for Prince was the best way to do so. Defensively, there are major questions about Miguel Cabrera playing anywhere in the field, be it third base, left field or first base. There are bigger questions if Fielder, another subpar defender, is also starting somewhere other than designated hitter. The team’s pitching staff also has some issues of its own. Can Doug Fister replicate his 2011 outside of Safeco Field? What kind of season can erratic but talented Max Scherzer have? Both Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde had career years in 2011, but what will happen if they regress (which is almost guaranteed in Valverde’s case) to their career norms? Will signing Octavio Dotel really improve the bullpen? On the offensive side of things, can Austin Jackson, Delmon Young and whoever is playing 2B and 3B get on base and be league average offensive players? And what if, as some writers have suggested (like Getting Blanked’s Travis Reitsma), that Fielder merely replaces the production of Victor Martinez, instead of improving on it?

There are a lot of ways to spend $214 million dollars (or in my case, 214 dollars), and given how the Tigers roster is currently constructed, the money may have been better used to upgrade several problem areas. Would the Tigers not have looked better signing Jose Reyes and moving Jhonny Peralta to third base? What if they traded a package of players (like prospect Jacob Turner) for a young starter like Michael Pineda, Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez? They could have upgraded their outfield by trading for Carlos Quentin. If they didn’t want to part with prospects they could have gone after CJ Wilson or Edwin Jackson and they could have shored up the bullpen by signing Ryan Madson, a far superior reliever to Jose Valverde, and one who ended up taking a one year $8.5 million dollar deal. Based on the contracts Wilson, Reyes and Madson signed this offseason, the Tigers could have inked all three (they posted a combined WAR of 13.8 according to Fangraphs) for less money than it cost to sign Prince Fielder (5.5 WAR).

This is not to say any of the players mentioned above wanted to sign with the Tigers, or that they don’t come with risks and problems of their own. It is meant to say that if winning now was indeed priority number one for Detroit this offseason, there were options other than Fielder that should have been examined. Options that may have been more effective and efficient than giving out the fourth largest contract in baseball history to a player with question marks of his own (defence, how he will age given his weight). Especially knowing the Tigers’ roster already has a surplus of viable 1B and DH options.

Having an owner that is committed to winning is a great thing and signing Prince Fielder is certainly symbolic of that commitment. But for a Tigers’ team that has many holes to fill and $214 million dollars to fill them, signing Fielder may not have been the best way to deploy these resources.

I Don't Know Davey...

2012-01-24T20:13:00.000-08:00

Rumour has it that the motivation for trading shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Rockies this weekend was to free up money to sign one of several free agents. One of the free agents the Red Sox are supposedly interested in signing is Cody Ross. Now Ross is not an awful player, but this is not exactly the kind of move I have in mind when I think of the Boston Red Sox.

Ross is a player that does some things well. He has a little bit of power (although not a lot for a corner outfielder), and appears to be a decent baserunner, despite not stealing many bases. Defensively he is average at best, and while he may have exhibited some less quantifiable qualities in the Giants World Series run in 2010 (like clutch hitting), there is a reason he is still available on January 23. Ross is also 31 years old and would be moving into the toughest division in baseball. Acquiring Ross also doesn’t account for the question of whether or not Mike Aviles and Nick Punto can replace Scutaro (especially his defence) at short.

Something about the Red Sox moving Scutaro to acquire a player like Cody Ross doesn’t seem right. Time and time again we’ve seen that it makes the most sense to spend money on the players at the very top of the free agent market. Organizations tend to make the most mistakes when they give contracts to veteran players that were never elite talents. Cody Ross could be this year’s Jose Guillen. Maybe I’m misreading the situation and the Sox are really going after Roy Oswalt, a pitcher that could greatly improve their rotation if he can stay healthy enough to make 16 plus starts. While acquiring a good number two starting pitcher (like Oswalt or Edwin Jackson) would still leave somewhat of a hole at shortstop, it makes a little more sense than signing a corner outfielder with limited abilities. If they are intent on replacing Scutaro with Ross, this is a move in a direction that I’m not used to seeing the Red Sox go in, and not one that is going to help them leapfrog the Rays and Yankees in the ultra competitive AL East.

Why I Shouldn't Be Surprised Yanks Landed Pineda

2012-01-15T12:56:00.000-08:00

It’s always easy to accept things that you want to be true, even when they probably aren’t. So when this Blue Jay fan observed the Yankees and Red Sox passing on every impact free agent to date this offseason, I was pleasantly surprised. Sure the Red Sox shored up their bullpen, but all and all it had been a quiet winter. Maybe Toronto could sneak into the playoffs with 90 wins if everything breaks right? But wanting something to be true doesn’t make it so and I should have known better.

Friday night, the Yankees acquired soon to be 23 year old starting pitcher Michael Pineda. Pineda had the third highest strikeout percentage in baseball and an ERA of 3.74 (3.53 xFIP) last year. I will tell myself everything I always do when a trade like this happens: apparently his changeup isn’t that good, he only has one year of experience, and moving from Safeco to Yankee Stadium will mean he gives up more home runs. All this really is though is a Blue Jays fan avoiding the fact that the Yankees, as usual got better on Friday. A lot better.

The AL East is the AL East and it is never going to change. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible for the three teams in the division not battling with the luxury tax to make playoffs, it just means there are no shortcuts. Shortcuts like signing Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish or going after a proven closer. Moves that would help any team no doubt, but not address the fact that the Blue Jays need to develop a system full of quality, high ceiling players and prospects (like Michael Pineda) to be able to run with the big dogs in the East. Things are moving in the right direction, and we should get there soon, but the team still has more than a couple holes to fill. The rotation, second base, left field, DH and first base could all be problem areas for the team this year. Friday’s trade between New York and Seattle was just another reminder that Toronto isn’t in the AL or NL Central. The Jays will need to be one of the best teams in baseball to even have a shot at making the playoffs. Even if I should have known that all along.

Why No Interest in Prince San Fran?

2012-01-09T21:30:00.000-08:00

For all the action, (or lack thereof) in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, one team that has not shown interest (at least publicly) are the San Francisco Giants. Why San Fran hasn’t been linked to the husky slugger is a little bit confusing to me. With Fielder, the Giants would improve a punchless lineup that has prevented them from becoming an elite team and ensure that their talented pitching staff isn’t wasted on a team fighting just to get into the playoffs.

The Giants’ offensive issues were on full display this year as they surrendered their NL West division crown to the Diamondbacks. Admittedly, the team was without Buster Posey for most of the year, but even a current Giants’ lineup that includes Posey is still average at best. While Posey is an elite player, some of his value is positional. Posey will be a good hitter, but he will not be putting up Mike Piazza-like numbers in the middle of a line-up anytime soon. Like Posey, Brandon Belt is another potential future star and projects to be a talented hitter, but given his age and inexperience, counting on him to be the anchor in the middle of the lineup may be a bit premature. And that also assumes that one of Brian Sabean or Bruce Bochy actually decides to give the poor guy the playing time he deserves. In either case, the Giants are still in need of a power bat to lengthen the middle of their lineup.
Fielder is fairly close to being a complete offensive player. He is very consistent, since his rookie year, he hasn’t hit any less than 28 HR and has averaged 38. His gets on base (.390 career OBP) and hits for power (.540 career slugging percentage). If 2011 is any indication, his performance against left handed pitching (.822 OPS) is also turning into a non-issue as well. A middle of the order that includes Fielder, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt (Belt would have to move to the outfield to accommodate Fielder) sounds a lot better than the Giants’ teams of 2010 and 2011 that were forced to bat Aubrey Huff and Bengie Molina cleanup (true story).

Fielder doesn’t come without his problems. He is not a good defensive player, but he is remember, a first baseman and if there is anywhere on the diamond you can afford to field a below average defender, it’s first base. And let’s be honest, the Giants don’t really balk at the idea of starting below average defensive players these days (Aubrey Huff, Orlando Cabrera). Scott Boras has also made it know that Fielder will come with hefty price tag. The rumour was that Fielder is aiming to sign a contract similar to Mark Tiexeria and Adrian Gonzalez, but with the Cubs acquiring Anthony Rizzo, big market suitors for Prince appear to be waning. Whatever Fielder’s price will be, San Francisco is a big market team ($116 million dollar payroll last year) and have only $7 million in payroll commitments beyond 2013. Yes, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are due for big raises in the near future, but the Giants also have Posey and Belt under club control until 2017, and they should be able to allocate enough of their 120 million payroll to Fielder.

The Giants already have one of the rarest things in baseball: elite starting pitching. Aside from the Phillies (and maybe the Angels depending on what you think of their top four), San Francisco has the best starting rotation in the game. Adding Fielder to a lineup that already includes young stars like Posey, Belt and Pablo Sandoval would help prevent the anaemic Giants’ offence from struggling the way it did in 2012. With the Dodger’s ownership in limbo,and questions surrounding the Diamondbacks and Rockies, there is no clear powerhouse in the National League West. The division is ripe for the taking. Signing Fielder to a long term contract is definitely a risky proposition, but given his record of past performance, the Giants payroll flexibility relative to smaller market teams and their current roster composition, it may be a risk worth taking for a team he could transform from playoff contender to World Series favourite.

Notes from the Under-Mound, Oct 8, 2011

2011-10-09T15:49:00.000-07:00

ALCS

Yes, the Tigers just disposed of the best (based on record, and strength of schedule) team in the American League, but I’m still betting that they don’t give the Rangers much of a fight in the ALCS. Aside from Miggy and V-Mart (and with Alex Alvila struggling), the Tigers’ lineup looks pretty anaemic. Delmon Young and Dom Kelly played the role of offensive hero in the ALDS, but the Tigers scored just under 3.5 runs per game, which probably won’t be enough to hold down the Rangers. Along with Detroit’s potential offensive issues, there is a Tiger bullpen that relies exclusively on Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. Even if Papa Grande’s inevitable implosion is somehow postponed until next season, Jim Leyland showed us in the Yankee series that he has little faith in anyone other than his setup man and closer, never a good sign. The Ranger lineup is one of the best in baseball (3rd in runs scored, 5th in team OBP, 2nd in team slugging), and the four man rotation will allow Alexi Ogando to pitch out of the pen, strengthening an already formidable relief corps. My pick is Texas in five.

NLCS

With all the shit talking between the Cards and Brewers, Ron Roenicke decided not to start Nyjer Morgan in game one of the NLCS. While on the surface, the move keeps one of the series’ biggest mouthpieces off the field; it also gets one of Milwaukee’s only above average defensive players (Carlos Gomez) into the game. Aside from the trash talk, health is a major issue in this NLCS. Both Ricky Weeks, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are playing hurt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either manager decides that having Weeks/Holliday at 60% isn’t enough to keep them in the lineup; both players look severely limited right now. Predicting the NLCS seems a little more difficult than calling it’s American League counterpart. Both teams are flawed; Milwaukee has defensive issues and holes in their lineup (third base, centerfield and shortstop) while St. Louis has bullpen and lineup (second base and center field) issues of its own. Neither team is more than three starters deep in the rotation. Too bad, Adam Wainwright isn’t healthy. This series is equally talented, equally flawed teams; I’ll take the Brewers in seven.

10th Avenue Freese Out

There has been much ado (read: criticism) about Tony La Russa’s in game managerial tactics so far in these playoffs (listen to ESPN’s Keith Law for an elaboration). While La Russa is often criticized for his bullpen management (he used all but one pitcher in a nine inning NLDS game), he also likes to use the double switch and defensive replacements. Criticizing La Russa’s managerial style at this point would be beating a dead horse. We get it; he likes to make his mark on a game. One recently minted piece of micromanaging that La Russa should reconsider is removing David Freese in the late innings. Freese is one of the Cardinals better offensive weapons (especially with Holliday hurt) and there is evidence (albeit a small sample) that he is improving defensively at third base (he owns a UZR of +2.4 this season). Assuming that Freese can be league average level in the field, the Cards may be best served to keep Freese and his bat in any game.

2011 Playoffs: 5 Players I’m Excited to Watch

2011-09-30T08:30:00.000-07:00

The 2011 playoffs start tomorrow, and for a non MLB-TV subscribing Canadian like myself, that means I will be treated to watching baseball players I don’t often get to see. Call it lack of commitment, ignorance or east coast bias; there are teams and games I just don’t get to fully appreciate during the regular season. Here are some of the players I’m most looking forward to getting a closer look at.

Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays

Yes, he plays in the same division as the Blue Jays, but as of now Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings in his major league career, so I should be absolved from not knowing much about the lefty. In that 9.1 innings, Moore has 15 strikeouts. By all accounts Moore has electric stuff and could be a difference maker if the Rays should choose to deploy him (that in itself may be an interesting storyline too). Josh Beckett’s coming out party in the 2003 playoffs was one of the most exciting elements of the Marlins’ World Series run. Moore could be this year’s Josh Beckett.

Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

I am told by many baseball writers that Upton is one of the most underappreciated superstars in the game. Upton can run (20 steals), hit (.369 OBP/.529 SLG) and play defence (a + 8.2UZR rating this year). The talent’s of players that excel at every aspect of the game cannot be justly appreciated by looking at statistics alone (no matter how high his WAR maybe). Here’s hoping the rest of the Arizona lineup can hit enough to prevent Upton from being intentionally walked 10 times so we can all see the superstar he is.

CJ Wilson – Texas Rangers

Wilson has been a very good starting pitcher for the Rangers over the last two years. He is also a free agent come the end of the World Series. Wilson will play next season at age 31 and is hitting the free agent market with only two years of starting experience under his belt. I’m curious to see how Wilson performs. It may be a small sample but his playoff performance will go a long way to shape the narrative and perception of Wilson as a free agent to be. I know, it sounds crazy but some teams are still suckers for “a proven winner”.

Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers

One would think I’d be able to pay close enough attention to someone that stars on a team two hours west of home. That person has probably not been subjected to the same TV blackouts that I have. Yes, he can’t run or play the field (despite all of this, he has still accumulated a WAR of 7.3 this year), but the man can do some serious yard work. Miggy’s career OBP is .395, and in 8 full seasons, he has never hit fewer than 30 HR’s or slugged under .512. Aside from Albert Pujols, Cabrera may be the most consistent hitter in baseball. It’s going to be fun to watch Cabrera terrorize CC Sabathia and the back end of the Yankee bullpen.

Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies

Everyone knows that the Halladay/Lee/Hamels trio at the top of the rotation can neutralize any offence. The question of late has become, whether or not the Phillies can hit enough to ensure their star pitchers efforts do not go to waste. In years past, Howard has been shut down by good left handed pitchers. If Howard can somehow reverse his fortunes against lefties (his career OPS is 272 points higher against righties) for just a couple of weeks, the Phillies may be unstoppable.

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept 23, 2011

2011-09-23T13:52:00.000-07:00

What RBIs Can Tell Us

“Hey I guess they’re right. Seniors citizens, while slow, and dangerous behind the wheel, can still serve a purpose.” – Lloyd Christmas on the value of old people

RBIs are like Lloyd Christmas’ assessment of senior citizens. They are very limited, but if you think about them in the right light, they can still provide some value. They are not valuable predictors of future performance or accurate ways to describe a players past performance. RBIs are wholly dependent on people getting on base in front of the batter credited with them. That means they are something the hitter credited (or not credited) with the RBI cannot control. That’s why this year’s Blue Jay cleanup hitter Adam Lind (86 RBI) drives in more runs than leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar (48 RBI), despite Escobar’s far superior offensive season (higher OBP, wOBA). While RBIs may not be the best way of evaluating players' past performance or future value, they can serve a purpose as a descriptive stat. When taken as such, RBI can help tell the story of a single game. Knowing Chase Utley had 3 RBIs in the 7th inning of last night’s tie game (even if he hit a squibbler down the line), does more than saying he slugged .667 last night. I don’t see Win Probability Added making its way into the laurels of common vocabulary anytime soon either. RBIs don’t provide insight into a hitter’s true performance or ability, but they can provide some (albeit very limited) context into what happened on the field.

Comeback Player of the Year Award

Like core values and truths in post- enlightenment, western society; how we interpret the Comeback Player of the Year Award is a personal choice. Should it go to a player that is coming back from a major injury? Or should it go to a player coming back from a terrible year? My vote/interpretation goes to the latter. For the most part, players who that get hurt are expected to return to form and get back to their pre-injury level of performance. Players coming off of terrible years are a little more complicated. They are often seen as washed up or too old (Jim Thome), one time overachievers, or just not very good (Carlos Pena before 2007). These are the players I want to see winning comeback player of the year. Their stories are more interesting, and that’s what the Comeback Player Award is all about: the story. I don’t know why Brad Lidge couldn’t get his head right in 2006/2007 but however he went from frazzled late inning headcase to ace reliever is a much more compelling story than the guy who was good, blew out his arm, missed a year and came back to be the exact same player he was before (Chris Carpenter I’m looking at you...). You know how it goes with these interpretive awards: one man, one opinion.

Moneyball Movie

I’m going to spare you one more opinion on the apparently controversial Moneyball movie. What I do want to say is that we should try to remember that Moneyball is a movie, and shouldn’t be evaluated as anything more. Let’s not use it as an argument either for or against the use of statistical analysis in baseball. Enjoy the movie!

Jerkball 2012: Acquire Logan Morrison?

2011-09-18T20:18:00.000-07:00

The Alex Anthopoulos led Blue Jays have had a knack for freeing talented but “troubled” players from the doghouses of other Major League teams. Acquiring a promising young player for what is often perceived as less than market value has recently been dubbed (read: it has surfaced once or twice as a twitter hash tag) Jerkball: the new market inefficiency. In terms of results, it’s been so far so good with Yunel Escobar, who is proving to be one of the better (and relatively inexpensive) shortstops in the league. While the jury is still out on Colby Rasmus, his upside has lead to many analysts calling the trade a win for the Blue Birds. Now keeping in mind that my trade musings are entirely theoretical (given that I know nothing of the asking price, availability, finances, negotiations, and everything else that is needed to make a major league trade), I think I have found the Blue Jay’s next Jerkball trade target.

The latest player to tweet his way out of favour with his current club is the Florida Marlins’ Logan Morrison. Since his August 13th demotion (and subsequent recall), Morrison has hit the club with a grievance that claims he was disciplined (demoted) without just cause. Whatever Morrison may or may not be tweeting about, he is barely 24 years old and sits second on the Marlins (among players with 100 PA) in HR, slugging percentage and wOBA. It’s also important to remember that this is Morrison underachieving. Blue Jay fans (myself included), love Adam Lind and Eric Thames. Lind and Thames are players you root for to succeed. The problem however, is that rooting for these guys to succeed doesn’t seem to help them get on base. Lind (.298) and Thames (.308) are both getting on base at well below league average rates. Acquiring Morrison would be a means of upgrading either position given that he possesses better on-base skills, comparable power, and most importantly, a higher ceiling.

As a left fielder, Morrison has a lot in common with Eric Thames. Neither are considered league average defenders at this point in their careers. However, Morrison has yet to show that he is the same defensive liability at first base, a position he played consistently in the minor leagues (Morrison has since been moved off first base to accommodate slugger Gaby Sanchez). Splitting Morrison’s time between left field, first base and DH would minimize the negative impact of Morrison’s defence. Playing Morrison would also limit Eric Thames (LF/DH) exposure to left handed pitching (.220 AVG/.250 OBP, albeit in a limited sample size), and allow the club to play him in situations where he is more likely to succeed (against right handed pitching).

Right now, Lind, Thames and Morrison have all been 0.7 WAR players this year. Last year, Baseball America and Project Prospect both had Morrison listed as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball. The all-knowing Keith Law had Morrison come in at #21. Let’s hope that Adam Lind can rebound, and hey as long as were hoping, why not hope that Eric Thames can become an average Major League regular. Morrison may not be available, and if he is, his asking price may be too high, but in the spirit of the Jerkball movement, why not take a chance on a player who is young, unhappy and has the unrealized potential that the Alex Anthopoulos run Blue Jays like so much.

Limited Exposure: Why the Rangers Should be Careful with Their Young Starting Pitchers

2011-09-11T21:38:00.000-07:00

As we enter the final weeks of September, the Texas Rangers are in contention once again. With a 2.5 game lead on Los Angeles, the Rangers are fighting for their second AL West title in as many years. During this fight, Texas will be relying on three young starting pitchers in Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. As the year moves on, innings limits and shutdown dates are often discussed. However, Texas is in a position where limiting the workload of its young starting pitchers will benefit the Rangers now as well as down the road.

One through four, the Texas rotation is as strong as any in the American League. As of September 5, CJ Wilson, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison all have ERA’s under 4.15 (Holland’s is the highest at 4.13) and xFIP’s under 4.00 (Ogando’s is the highest at 3.95). While the New York and Boston rotations are posting similar numbers, Clay Buchholz return is still up in the air. Down the road in the Bronx, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon (who have contributed to the Yankee rotations’ similar xFIP and ERA numbers) look like they may be turning back into pumpkins. But like New York and Boston, the Texas starters have their own unanswered question: How will their young arms hold up down the stretch?

The question of how to handle young pitchers on playoff bound teams is a contentious one. There is a fairly large body of research that suggests innings limits and shutdown dates have not been as affective as some have suggested (http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id155.html). With this in mind, increased workloads could still be an issue for Texas starters. Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison all threw under 100 innings last year, and while Harrison (in 2007 at AA) and Holland (with the Rangers in 2009) have thrown over 100 innings once in their careers, they have already exceeded their career highs by 40 innings. That number should shoot to around 60+ additional innings (150 for Ogando) as Texas marches through September. Even if you don’t come from the Tom Verducci School of Pitcher Management, there is still risk with having young pitchers significantly increase their workload. In the case of the Rangers three young starters, they will be close to doubling it. Injury risk aside, fatigue may be a real concern for Ranger pitchers moving forward. Alexi Ogando’s August and September ERA’s of 7.14 and 4.50 are the highest of any months this year. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland also saw their highest monthly ERA’s in August. As we move deeper into September, the quality of innings 160 through 190 may not be the same as innings 1 through 100.

This July, Texas acquired some of the best arms on the market (in Koji Uehara and Mike Adams) to accompany Neftali Feliz at the back of the Ranger bullpen. Both pitchers are in the top 30 relievers in Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If deployed, these relievers can affectively shorten a game to six innings. Given fatigue on young arms, and the (newly acquired) quality of the Texas relief corps, the most optimal way to manage the Ranger pitching staff may be to limit their young starters to five (or six innings depending on pitch count) max. This should limit the amount of poor performance the Rangers see from fatigued starters late in the season, increasing their chances of both holding on to their AL West lead, and winning games in the playoffs.

Relying on three potentially exhausted starting pitchers in a pennant race is not an ideal situation. But if Texas can limit the amount of innings these pitchers see, it will help them win now, and win later. Because whether or not there is an increased risk of injury, tired pitchers throwing meaningful innings is never a good thing.

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept, 3, 2011

2011-09-03T11:57:00.000-07:00

Yankee/Red Sox Games Take Too Long
I thought I liked baseball, but that was before I watched the Sox/Yankee game on Thursday night. I know I’m about the 10 millionth person to complain about the length of these games, but I’m also the 10 millionth person who is right about it. I get that drawing walks and working a count can take up more time, but that has nothing to do with the 35 plus seconds (yeah, I started timing) in between pitches. Can the Yankees and Red Sox please watch how Jose Bautista (who just happens to lead the league in OBP), operates in between pitches? The guy is as patient as anyone but instead of strolling through as much foul territory as possible in between pitches, he keeps one foot in the box most of the time. I know Blue Jays games tend to have fewer A-list celebs sitting behind home plate than Yankee/Red Sox tilts, but for the love of God, stay in the damn batter’s box.

MVP Watch: If Jose Bautista Isn’t Playing for a Contender, Neither is Justin Verlander
Every year I promise myself I’m not going to argue with my friends about MVP races, and every year I get sucked back in. It’s exactly like Michael Corleone trying to get out of the family business... exactly the same. I don’t want to go on some long diatribe about how to interpret what “valuable” means, but I will say that it seems preposterous to suggest the Tigers “contention” makes Verlander a better candidate than Bautista. The Blue Jays are as good a team (if not better) than Detroit. The Tigers, who play in a far weaker division, have still only managed to win 7 more games than the Blue Jays. If you don’t think playing 57 games a year against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, is substantially more difficult than 57 games against the Royals, Indians and Twins, I don’t know what to tell you. The Jays and Jose Bautista in the AL Central are playoff contenders, just like the Tigers in the AL East are nothing more than a .500 team.

Rooting for Lind
Everyone in Toronto is rooting for Adam Lind to succeed, but as we enter September, we may have reason to worry about the smiley Blue Jay. As Jay’s/Sportsnet blogger Tao of Stieb notes, in the last 253 games (save one hot month) Lind’s offensive numbers are eerily similar to the Arizona Diamondbacks first basemen’s. Has the ghost of Lyle Overbay come back to haunt Adam Lind? This year Lind’s WAR is 0.5 and we have seen his AVG and OBP dip down into the .250/.290 range. Looking for any reason I can to hope Lindy can break out of it, let’s remember he is hitting .253 against LHP, a year after he posted an abhorrent .117 clip. His BABIP is a tick low at .264 and despite a WAR of 0.5, I don’t think he is the defensive liability at first base that Fangraphs does (he has a +4 Total Zone rating according to Baseball-Reference.com). His line drive percentage is also right where it was when he had his breakout 2009 season. He still needs to take more walks but let’s not stick the proverbial fork in Lind yet, even if it’s just because we all like him so much.

Bright Future, Missing Link?

2011-08-31T15:37:00.002-07:00

You don’t need to be the happiest man in Springfield to admit the Blue Jays future is starting to look pretty bright. The lineup features one of baseball’s best hitters in Jose Bautista. Yunel Escobar, JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie have the potential to become valuable contributors for years to come. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have established themselves as top of the rotation starters. If Travis Snider can’t figure things out, recent history suggests Alex Anthopoulos will be able to trade him for Albert Pujols straight up. Couple this with the fact that Toronto is probably already better than some of this year’s to be determined playoff entrants (AL Central/NL West, I’m looking at you...) and there really is a lot to be excited about. So with all the positives pouring out of camp Blue Jays, there is one thing the team may still be missing if they want to make a playoff push two or three years down the road: another frontline starting pitcher.

According to this year’s Hustle and Heart TV promos, Ricky Romero is the staff ace. This probably has to do with a combination of performance, consistency and service time. Romero is an extremely valuable, top of the rotation major league pitcher (even if this years’ LOB rate of 81.4% suggests he may be a bit lucky). But if you’re more inclined to consider advanced statistics and pure stuff, Brandon Morrow could be viewed as the best pitcher on the team. This year, Morrow is a top twenty pitcher according to xFIP (he may have been last year as well if he had thrown enough innings), he also has ace-calibre stuff and is young enough that he shouldn’t be prone to decline in the next few years. Morrow should be an ace, but as we approach September, we are looking at the second straight year in which his xFIP, K/9 and other periphery statistics don’t seem to be translating into the on field results we expect them to. Some blame the dreaded big inning but I don’t really know what that means. Morrow is young, and turning the corner is not something that would surprise anyone but there is also some reason to believe that he may continue to see results slightly below his true talent level (something called Ricky Nolasco Syndrome). Regardless of whether or not you believe Morrow will make improvements, the need for another frontline starter to accompany Morrow and Romero at the top of the rotation is still something the Blue Jays should consider.

Even with Morrow (in any incarnation) Romero at the top of the rotation, another elite starter is almost necessary to compete in the AL East. The Jays don’t need to look any further than this year’s Red Sox team (who rank just ahead of the Jays in xFIP) to see the problems that arise from a lack of quality starting pitching. Despite having two top of the rotation starters in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the weak underbelly of the Red Sox’s rotation has been exposed (and saved by the BoSox lineup) with the back injury to Clay Buchholz (thats really how you spell BUCHHOLZ!). If you start Andrew Miller enough times, the Yankees are going to gain some ground.

Anecdotal evidence aside, the Blue Jays staff ranks in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.12 and a WAR of 10.2. Unless they plan on slugging their way to the top, improvements need to be made. As frustrating as it is to see lead after lead coughed up by the bullpen, BJ Ryan and every sabermatrician ever born has me doubting that a “proven closer” is the answer to Toronto’s pitching problems. The Jays need better starting pitching. While they do have front of the rotation prospects in the high and low minors, young arms take time to develop (remember Roy Halladay’s first few years?). And like any prospect (or player for that matter), there is also some risk the player may get injured or not live up to their potential. Bringing in a top of the rotation starter would ensure they Jays don’t have to pin their soon to be playoff hopes entirely on one or two young arms the second they get to the big leagues.

Is it possible to contend without three dominant pitchers at the top of a rotation? Sure. The Yankees are doing it; but it’s definitely more difficult. Is it possible that Toronto can solve this problem internally? Yes, but it may be a risky proposition to hang your proverbial hat on Toronto’s current minor league players; especially with Kyle Drabek’s newly developed loss of command and Henderson Alvarez’s inability to miss bats. A top of the rotation starter is one of the rarest commodities in baseball and I admit that acquiring one is no easy task. But the Jays have enough talent and money to make paying the price for a top starter feasible. Whether Toronto looks to finally spend Rogers oft-promised money and acquire an arm via free agency (CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia are both free agents this offseason), or use current minor league position player depth to fill an area of weakness at the major league level, another “outside hire” at the top of the rotation may be needed to put the Jays in a position to compete in the AL East. Whether or not Toronto is ready to compete next year or in 2013, elite starting pitchers don’t grow on trees and one may not be available at moment the Jays are ready to make the jump to certified contending team. That may mean acting sooner rather than later. Acquiring one more starting pitcher might turn what is now a bright future, into an exciting (and hopefully playoff bound) present in Toronto.

Don't Call It a Comeback

2011-08-31T15:37:00.001-07:00

So yeah, I’ve been busy over the last few months. But watching the Tea Party storm back onto the Canadian Music scene after years in hibernation (and in Crash Karma), inspired me to continue ranting uncontrollably about my favourite slow moving professional sport.

Why Doesn’t Anyone Like Mike Napoli?

2011-04-29T12:40:00.000-07:00

As the Jays spend the better part of the week battling the Rangers (and Canadian interest in the NHL playoffs) down in Texas, we get our first 2011 look at the other player someone was willing to give up in exchange for Vernon Wells; Mike Napoli. Now I’ve been told the common wisdom stating you should avoid tattoos because it will reduce your chance of getting a good job has become outdated, but seeing Napoli struggle to find both playing time and a home has me wondering.

The First question to ask is why Mike Scioscia seems to detest Napoli to the point that the Angels were willing to give up such a productive player while taking on Wells’ $80 million in salary. Yes, he is not a great defensive catcher, but he can play at first or DH, and with Michael Cuddyer manning second base for the Twins, we could be seeing the start of the big-bodied second baseman era. Given that Napoli’s versatility and that the Angels are 18th in the League in OBP and runs scored, it would seem as though he maybe a worthwhile option. That said, the Angels do have options at these positions: Mark Trumbo (even though he’s struggling), Kendrys Morales (even though he’s on the DL), Hank Conger (even though he’s not Jeff Mathis) and Bobby Abreau, so it does make at least some sense that the Angels would let Napoli go. Even if a case can be made that Napoli is a better offensive player than everyone listed above not named Kendrys.

More confusing however, is why the Jays and Rangers made the Napoli trade. From Toronto’s perspective, Napoli would be somewhere between the second and fourth best hitter in their lineup, depending on how much you like Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar (and until Travis Snider breaks out). Sure, that would mean carrying Juan Rivera as a part time player (you probably couldn’t deal him if you wanted to), but Napoli’s bat would still be a welcome addition. Having Napoli take either Rivera or Encarnacion’s share of at bats at DH (while also being able to spell at 1B and C) would mean more production for a Jays’ lineup that seems to “run into” a lot of “hot” pitching. Sabermetrically speaking, Napoli has been god for a 2.7 WAR over the previous three seasons, versus Encarnacion’s 1.9, and Rivera’s 1.0 (the low average is due to injuries and inconsistent play). While Rivera did have a WAR of 3.3 in 2009, he has never in his career posted another WAR above 3, and only once (2006) did he post a plus 2 WAR. Napoli may also see his numbers spike moving from the pitcher friendly Angel Stadium to the homer friendly Ballpark in Arlington (or Rogers Centre, sigh).

As for what the Jays received in the trade, Frank Francisco is a solid (if not underrated) reliever that should help the bullpen. Has posted good strikeout rates along with all the other positive peripheral stats you look for from a reliever. The question isn’t really whether or not Francisco is a good pitcher, but rather did the Jays really need to give up what could be one of their better offensive weapons in order to add to a bullpen that already contains enough serviceable arms? Confusing the situation further are the Rangers motivations for the trade. Why would Texas want to trade Francisco for Napoli given their own pitching issues and unwillingness to play Napoli?

As of today, Napoli has 48 at bats for the Rangers. Fewer than Michael Young(102), Mitch Moreland(74), and Yorvit Torrealba (69), all of whom he is competing with for playing time. That’s not even considering the Rangers’ other first baseman and catcher: Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden, currently on the active roster (really, they have that many). When Josh Hamilton returns from the DL, Napoli’s playing time may decrease even more with Moreland unable to play in the outfield. For all the depth the Rangers have at 1B/C/OF, their pitching is thin. Aside from Darren Oliver and the now injured Neftali Feliz, the Rangers lack reliable bullpen options. It may have served Texas better to keep Francisco in the pen, rather than trade him for another offensive player that will struggle to get more than 300 ABs. Keeping Francisco and instilling him as closer also would have made it easier to move Neftali Feliz (one of the team’s best arms) out of the bullpen to help shore up an equally weak rotation, an idea Rangers brass was toying with in spring training.

Why Mike Napoli seems unable to get anything more than a part time gig is beyond me. Especially considering Adam Kennedy has batted cleanup for a Major League team in the past two weeks. He isn’t as good against right handed pitching as he is against left, but he does have power, a good eye (save his low OBP last year) and the ability to play three positions, one of which is catcher. This is a skill set that I think shouldn’t leave a guy fighting for 300 at bats after being traded twice. Maybe it is the tattoos.

Panic In Boston? A Response to Dave Cameron

2011-04-08T12:10:00.000-07:00

One of the most commonly asked questions after a week’s worth of baseball games has been “should Boston be worried?” The odds on World Series favourites have started the season 0-6, unable to eek out a win against even the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yesterday, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs issued his own more statistically based suggestion that Boston may indeed be in trouble . While it is scary to think about climbing out of an 0-6 hole, I’m still not ready to assume Boston is any less likely to be the team they were expected to be eight days ago.

Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East

Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.

No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.

Bold Faced Prediction for the 2011 MLB Season: Florida Marlins Win the World Series

2011-04-05T09:25:00.000-07:00

I admit I’m a week late in writing, but the contrarian inside me couldn’t stand to hear another writer/TV analyst tell me that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. What fun is the beginning of a new season if all you’re hearing is a reaffirmation of the conventional wisdom? Saying Boston is going to win is like saying owning land is a good investment, or that the Strokes like getting drunk. Reasonable and measured. But leave the safe bets to your mutual fund manager; it’s a new baseball season. With that in mind, you heard it here first – The Florida Marlins are going to win their third World Series this year. This is my boldfaced prediction for the 2011 MLB season.

The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.

The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.

Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).

The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.

Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.

This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.

Jays Spring Training Observations

2011-03-18T22:55:00.000-07:00

Jays Spring Training Notes

Brett Lawrie

Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.

Pitching Injuries

Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.

Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment

While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.

Boston Red Sox Offseason Review

2011-02-19T11:36:00.000-08:00

It’s been a big offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a 90 win season, the AL East powerhouse was able to add two superstars (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) to their already formidable lineup. If that wasn’t enough to get Red Sox fans excited, the team also saw their biggest rival come up empty in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and give away their first round pick in next year’s draft (along with $30 million dollars) for a set up man. So while the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez have lots of people talking, Boston’s improvements in 2011 should have more to do with some less publicized moving and shaking than their two big name signings.

There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.

Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.

This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.

Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.

Albatross II?: What the Jays Shouldn't Do Now That Vernon is Gone

2011-01-30T20:50:00.000-08:00

NO ONE saw this coming. When I received a message asking if I’d heard about Vernon Wells, I was confused as to what it meant. Did he get caught using PEDs? Did his wrist flare up and the Jays had to put him on the shelf already? Did he go on the bereavement list because his golden retriever died? I didn’t know why Vernon Wells was suddenly newsworthy, but the idea of him being traded seemed almost impossible. Now we’ve all heard what a horrible deal this is for the Angels and how Alex Anthopoulos is going to win executive of the year (as he should), but there was one element to the trade that I was not expecting. To me, the most surprising part of the Vernon Wells trade is how many people began suggesting the Jays use the money the team saved by selling its magic beans to the Angels on signing Jose Bautista long term.

Jose Bautista was without a doubt Toronto’s best offensive player in 2010, but coming off a career year is no time to sign a player to a long-term contract. If you don’t believe me just ask the Leafs (we can start with Jason Blake, but it’s a long list). The Jose Bautista scenario can play out several ways in 2011: He can regress to his career norms; he can level off but remain productive (something in 25-30 home run range, with corresponding drops in OBP and OPS would be nice); he can get injured; or he can repeat his 2010 performance. If the Jays decide not to negotiate a contract before the season, only if he repeats his 2010 (probably the most unlikely of the situations mentioned above) will they be in a worse position should they choose to negotiate with him after/ later on in the season.

On top of these risks, signing a player long-term is not the modus operandi for Toronto’s current front office team. And that’s a good thing. If you’re a Jays fan, what’s exciting about the Vernon Wells trade is how it will allow the team flexibility to add the pieces they need via free agency or trade when they are ready to contend. Tying up money in Jose Bautista right now could be needlessly spending while the team continues it’s rebuilding. If he is productive again this year, it may benefit the Jays to trade him midseason for prospects, or let him leave via-free agency to collect draft picks. Jose’s time may be now, but it isn’t Toronto’s just yet.

We also need to remember that Jose Bautista is not a spring chicken. He will play this season at age 30 and is two years younger than the star outfielder we just traded to the Angels. Coincidentally, if you read any analysis about the Wells trade, it will no doubt bring up the fact that outfielders in their mid-30s are very susceptible to steep decline, both offensively and defensively. After just getting released from the Wells albatross, the Jays should be thinking long and hard before committing big dollars to a player that will play the first year of his new contract at age 31.

The Vernon Wells trade can mean a lot of things for the Blue Jays moving forward, but one thing that it shouldn’t mean, is signing Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract extension before the 2011 season. Right now, Jose Bautista is in the best position he will ever be to negotiate with the smallest track record he will ever have. Does this mean Jose Bautista is going to be a worthless player? No, but I do think that no one is really sure what kind of player he is going to be in the next few years right now. And if what he has asked for in arbitration is any indication ($10.5 million), he won’t be signing for peanuts. I’m not saying the Jays necessarily need to say goodbye to their cleanup hitter, but I think they should relax, think about it, and not make their final decision just yet.

2010 MLB Awards

2010-11-11T21:27:00.000-08:00

The baseball Oscars are here. During the next two weeks, baseball will hand out its 2010 hardware. But does anybody really want to hear another set of picks for the MVP and CY Young winners? Do we need another set of arguments outlining why the voters got it wrong (DEREK JETER) in handing out Gold Gloves? So, in lieu of handicapping the major awards, I have put together a list of alternative awards and award winners for 2010 so we can acknowledge some of the more unappreciated accomplishments, feats and moments of the 2010 season.

Biggest “I Told You So” Team: Seattle Mariners

After coming off an 85 win season and trading for Cliff Lee, the Seattle Mariners thought they were finally contenders again in the AL West. But despite plenty of offseason buzz, every sportswriter in the country was red flagging this team. The rotation behind Lee and Felix Hernandez was susceptible and unproven. Adrian Beltre and Russell Branyan were gone. This meant an already weak offense would be getting weaker and that was if Milton Bradley (acquired from the Cubs) could finally put it together. Needless to say, none of this worked out and Seattle will be drafting second next June.

Most Disappointing Free Agent Signing: Rich Harden.

Texas enjoyed last year’s biggest free agent bargain in Vladdy Guerrero, but the value gained in the Guerrero signing might have been cancelled out by the loss sustained in the Harden signing. Paying $6.5 million dollars for a 5.68 ERA and 5 wins is something only the Yankees can afford to do. Luckily it was only a one year contract.

Most Impressive Season Played With a Sports Hernia: Jose Bautista.

Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres.

I still don’t completely believe that this team won 90 games this year. Now Boston fans will have to wait until July to acquire Adrian Gonzalez.

Biggest Trend That Didn’t Pan Out: Strong Defensive Teams.

Last offseason, defence was a hot commodity. Many teams (Boston and Seattle) based their free agent and trade acquisitions (Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Casey Kotchman, Jack Wilson) on defensive efficiency, assuring their fans they would be competitive through run prevention. The value of defence should not be undermined, but it turns out you still need to pitch and hit. I don’t know who watched the World Series but the San Francisco Giants fielded a defence that included a shortstop that has the range of a traffic cone, a designated hitter at first base AND Pat Burrell.

Biggest “Oh Shit” Moment: Stephen Strasburg Blowing Out His Arm.

The fate of the Nationals future (and Dr. James Andrews’ career practicing sports medicine) hangs on how Strasburg’s arm will respond to Tommy John surgery.

Slowest Player to Steal a Base: Bengie Molina.

At the end of the regular season this title would have gone to Rangers catcher Matt Treanor. That said, Bengie has been far and away the slowest player in MLB since 2003, so when he swiped a bag in the playoffs with the stakes at their highest, he deservedly took the crown away from Treanor. Molina also plans to retire this year, so it’s a nice gesture to have him go out on top.

Player Who Agonizingly Still Failed to Live Up to His Potential: BJ Upton.

Instead of having a breakout campaign in 2010 Upton again seemed to be playing a personal game of “how low can my batting average go before I get platooned”. There’s an old saying in baseball that speed never takes a day off, but whoever said that hasn’t seen Upton run out a ground ball.

2010 Division Series Notes

2010-10-08T12:22:00.000-07:00

Playoff Stats

TBS and Fox – please stop showing playoff statistics in lieu of regular season statistics during telecasts. Thank you for informing us that BJ Upton is hitting .000 but it is a seven at bat sample, and doesn’t really tell us much about him as a player. Unless you catch a player the first time through the order, you will be treated to stats like that instead of regular season numbers that more accurately reflect how a player has preformed over the past 8 months.

Doctober

Roy Halladay is the only pitcher in baseball who you can expect to throw a no hitter and your expectation would sound reasonable. Judging by his subdued no-no celebration, Doc has one thing on his mind, and that is winning the World Series. Now that he is pitching for the Phillies in the National League ( and despite being 33), Doc’s high level of conditioning and modern sports medicine means there is no reason to think he can’t pitch in the next 15 post seasons.

The Yankees and Left Handed Lineups

After two games, the Twinkies are looking awfully susceptible to left handed pitching. While the Yankees expect to throw as much LHP at the Twins as possible, it is worth remembering that the Phillies lineup is also dominated by left handed hitters. As good as their starting pitching looks, New York was able to hold the Phils lineup at bay last October and a potential rematch could bring the same problem for Philadelphia. Does the Philly Fanatic bat right?

Texas Toast

Many are suggesting the Rangers will make some noise in the AL this October and while they did make quick work of Tampa Wednesday and Thursday, I’m still not sold. They limped into the playoffs, key position players are hurt (Josh Hamilton), while others don’t understand what exactly playoffs are (Vladimir Guerrero). Their rotation behind Cliff Lee is also unproven and like many converted relievers, number two starter CJ Wilson may tire from the increased workload that comes with starting.

Rookie Showdown

If anyone wants to get acquainted with the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year, they should be watching the Giants/Braves series. If you are betting against both Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, you might as well cut off your thumb and give it to your bookie now. My vote goes to Posey (because he has to catch Tim Lincecum), but watching Heyward’s combination of speed and power in the middle of the Braves lineup makes for a good debate and an even better NLDS matchup.

The Yankees “Clutch” Players

Its pretty hard to listen to announcers canonize Yankee players for their “clutch” performance abilities. Is it really true that Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter are really that clutch? Sure they are the all time hits/saves/wins/obnoxious first pump leaders, but that has more to do with the expanded playoff format and playing for a team that continually makes the postseason. When it comes to things like batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, winning percentage and career post season ERA only Rivera is present among the top ten all time playoff performers. These Yankees aren’t just that good, they are just there that often.

The Value of the Wild Card and Other September Notes

2010-09-26T14:43:00.000-07:00

While watching a game earlier this week, I heard the validity of the Wild Card questioned by one color commentator for a not to be named Midwestern team. In doing so, John Q. Dinosaur brought up what I thought was a dead issue. The Wild Card is great for baseball, and it only takes a passing interest in some of the series and games being played this past week to see why.

What separates baseball from other North American sports is how difficult it is to reach the playoffs. The NFL has two Wild Card teams in each Conference (10 playoff teams), and if the NBA let anymore teams (16) qualify, it would have to start taking WNBA teams. Less than twenty years ago, baseball was only giving FOUR teams a shot at the big dance. The Wild Card era realignment and playoff expansion has ensured that highly competitive teams are not left out of the playoff picture. In 2001 while the Seattle Mariners (on their way to 119 wins), had locked up the AL West in early May, the Oakland A’s, (on their way to a 96 win season), were able to remain in contention and eventually reach the playoffs. This year the Giants, Phillies, Padres, Braves and Rockies are competing for three playoff spots instead of only two. All of these teams should finish win at least 90 wins, and a winning percentage higher than over half the teams reaching the playoffs in the NHL or NBA this year.

The most common argument against the Wild Card is that it makes winning the division meaningless. Anyone who watched the Rays and Yankees series over the past two weeks can attest that this is not the case. The divisional title is still something worth playing for, especially given that it can translate into home field advantage (the Yankees home winning percentage is nearly 100 points higher). In the Rays/Yankees matchups of the past two weeks, knowing that both teams were headed to the post season no matter what the result (as was probably the case with the Braves and Phillies series) did not detract from some of the most entertaining baseball played this month.

The playoffs and stretch drive (minus sports bag giveaway day) are the most exciting time of the year for baseball and baseball fans and the Wild Card only adds to this excitement.

The Phillies Rotation
This week’s series against the Braves has proven the Phillies made the right call pulling the trigger on the Roy Oswalt trade. Not only will the Hamels/Halladay/Oswalt tandem ensure the Phillies are able to fend off Atlanta for the NL East crown, Philadelphia looks to own the best rotation of any contending team. Behind Sabathia, the Yankees are unsure what they will get from Andy Pettite (due to his injured groin) or A.J. Burnett (because he is A.J Burnett). In Tampa, the Rays rotation behind David Price is also faltering (Matt Garza and Jeff Niemans have struggled of late). The AL doesn’t get scared of its senior circuit opponents very often, but this time it has reason to be.

Felix’s Cy Young Bid
If Felix Hernandez is discounted from CY Young contention it shouldn’t be because he has pitched in fewer meaningful games or in a less competitive division – if this is really a criteria that should be taken seriously than all the awards in both leagues should be given to players on the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.

The Debut Of Young Pitching
With Kyle Drabek’s Major League debut I want to issue a caution to fans: do not to get too high or too low on young pitching. No one should have to be reminded of this, as every baseball fan can tell you about a young pitcher that broke their heart. Whether it was someone who blew out their arm pitching for Dusty Baker (Mark Prior) or someone who just didn’t pan out (Todd Van Poppel), young pitching is one of the most unpredictable commodities in the sport. The news isn’t all bad – for every Todd Van Poppel, there is a pitcher who surprises us and puts together a nice career despite rising through the minors completely unnoticed (Jamie Moyer). In any case pitchers take time (to develop or flame out) and we need to be sensitive to this learning curve, even though it’s often longer than we’d like it to be.

Josh Johnson Is Shut Down
When your home starts consist of pitching in front of 2,000 Miami Dolphin season ticket holders and the cast of Jersey Shore, you’re probably not going to garner much attention. But to give you an idea of how good Josh Johnson is, before he was shut down last week, he had been pitching with significant shoulder problems throughout the second half. During that time, he was in so much pain, his ERA ballooned to 3.50 (he still finished the year with an ERA under 3.00). AL centric fans like myself should remember that Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball and his accomplishments should be celebrated even before he gets traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.

In Defense of Moneyball

2010-08-07T18:08:00.000-07:00

Since Michael Lewis released Moneyball in 2003, the book has been met with criticisms from sports journalists, loudmouths and people within the game. Recently on Bill Simmons’ BS Report, sports writer Buzz Bissinger (author of Friday Night Lights) offered the latest set of criticisms. Given Bissinger’s attack, the announcement of the Moneyball movie (if Brad Pitt was playing one of my rivals I would be taking shots too), and the recent struggles of the Oakland A’s I feel it is important to defend why the themes of Moneyball have been and still are, relevant to major league baseball.

One criticism Bissinger posed was that Billy Beane merely got lucky. According to Bissinger, Beane was able to catch lightning in a bottle when 3 ace-caliber pitchers all developed and rose to the major leagues at the same time: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Bissinger asserts (and rightly) that these three pitchers played a major and understated role in Oakland’s success. What Bissinger doesn’t acknowledge is that it was Beane’s unorthodox evaluation of pitching that allowed him to acquire these pitchers in the first place. In Moneyball, Lewis describes how many teams passed on drafting Barry Zito because of his lack of velocity. Ignoring Zito because of his 87 mph fastball was something Beane saw as an oversight. Where other teams saw nothing, Beane saw a pitcher who didn’t give up walks, something that would translate into success in the major leagues. Bissinger is right to attribute Oakland’s success to the dominance of the big three, but he is wrong if he fails to acknowledge Beane’s role in seeing value in these pitchers while others didn’t.

One of the most common criticisms of the Beane/Moneyball philosophy, (and one echoed by Bissinger) is that Beane completely ignores things like heart, player makeup and team chemistry in building a team. These critics like to paint Beane and his crew as emotionally devoid automatons that see computers and statistics as the exclusive means to winning in major league baseball. This criticism also ignores much of the approach to building a team that Lewis outlines. Beane sees makeup as a major factor in assessing players. In the book, Beane describes an experience from his own playing days of how Lenny Dykstra was able to draw on every success while letting failures roll right off his back. This was something Beane saw as crucial to the makeup of an MLB player, and something he wasn’t able to do himself during his own playing career. This focus on makeup is one of the reason’s Beane valued all around good guy Nick Swisher as highly as he did during the amateur draft while passing on other players. Lewis goes as far as to outline an entire ranking system that Beane and his scouts used to evaluate a players based on makeup and character prior to the draft. To accuse Beane of not caring about makeup is like accusing Paris Hilton of reading too much, it’s just not true.

Other shots at the A’s system include pointing out that Oakland teams did not excel at getting on base despite the value placed on OBP, or that highly touted A’s prospects like Jeremy Brown fizzled out without making an impact in the majors. While the above-mentioned things are undoubtedly true this does not mean that Oakland’s system has failed. Almost ten years after the book has been written, no one can debate the value of the statistical analysis that Beane popularized throughout baseball (although Lewis gives much credit to Sandy Alderson, Bill James and the STATS Inc. homeboys before Beane). A whole school of GM’s have begun to emulate the work of Beane (Theo Epstein, JP Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta). Baseball may be about heart, but the statistical revolution has show that it may be a little more about numbers than some people would care to admit. And yes, many of Beane’s prospects have failed to make an impact in the major leagues but so did John Ford-Griffin and Dave Parrish (look at the Yankees draft record during the same period if these names are unfamiliar).

These failures have more to do with Beane’s situation in Oakland than his lack of skill as a GM. Critics need to remember that Beane was and is working with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. With little margin for error, it becomes about getting the best players you can within a budget, not the best players period. Would Beane have drafted players above Jeremy Brown if he had more money to sign draft picks? Of course. Would his team have a higher OBP if he could afford to sign or keep players that get on base? Definitely.

There are still many people that want to reject the lessons and ideas put forth in Moneyball. Casting Jonah Hill to play Paul DePodesta makes this increasingly clear. Ultimately, Moneyball and the work of Billy Beane in Oakland is not about on base percentage and strike throwing pitchers, it is about finding inefficiencies in the market for baseball players that allow the A’s to compete. As skills like OBP have become valued properly (i.e. other teams flush with cash want to sign players with these skills sets) Beane has been forced to find other inefficiencies. The A’s recent struggles have suggested that he may not have been able to find the next great inefficiency to exploit. However, this search for inefficiencies will always be important and valuable to fielding a winning baseball team, whether it is through exploiting statistics, signing undervalued veterans (ESPN’s Rob Nyer has suggested this may be the next market inefficiency), or using raccoon meat in concession stand hotdogs. That is why the lessons of Moneyball should not be overlooked.

2010 Trade Deadline Advice

2010-07-26T22:36:00.000-07:00

Blue Jays: Hold Jose

With the Jays sitting one game over five hundred in the AL East this year, they are in sell mode and rightfully so. While Toronto should try to move players (John Buck, Lyle Overbay, the entire bullpen) that will bring back prospects, one player that shouldn’t be moved just yet is Jose Bautista. While it is true that Jose Bautista is in the midst of a career year and his value will never be higher, the Jays may benefit from holding onto the AL home run leader.

He plays above average defense at two different positions (3B and RF), a versatility that can be valuable to a team that could look significantly different in 2011. The Jays may finish the year with their lowest OBP in franchise history (which definitely explains why they are losing games 2-1 to Cleveland). Bautista provides reasonable on base skills (.356 OBP) for a team that is in dire need of taking every walk they can get. Bautista is arbitration eligible and due for a hefty raise this offseason given his 2010 production, but let’s remember that he is still only 29, and this year’s production may not be a fluke. If they offer arbitration, the Jays will only be on the hook for paying Bautista next year, and could even trade him at the 2011 deadline if he continues his torrid pace. If not, he could continue to get on base, play above average defense wherever they need him and hit for some power without costing a fortune long term.

Phillies: Take a Shot at It

Yes, Philly has had some offensive troubles, but they should be sorted out as players return from the DL. Everyone knows what is really keeping Philadelphia from their third straight NL pennant: pitching. How good would this team have looked with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee? The Phillies need to add another top tier starting pitcher, and solidify their bullpen. Roy Oswalt, despite numerous roadblocks, (Houston owner Drayton McLean will probably ask for Chase Utley in return, his massive contract will need to be dealt with and Oswalt for some crazy reason, would rather finish his year in Houston than Philadelphia) would be a great fit.

Any of the Jay’s relievers (minus Kevin Gregg) would help solidify the pen. If Zack Grienke is available, he could be a more attractive option than Oswalt. If they can’t land an ace, Ted Lilly is another quality starter that is said to be available and could act as an alternative. If the Phillies want to solidify their status as an NL dynasty and hang with the big boys from the AL East, they need to hold onto Jayson Werth, and upgrade their pitching before its too late.

Angels: Add a Bat

While there will be much debate as to whether or not it was the smartest move to acquire Dan Haren with the team sitting seven games out of first place, this weekend’s trade definitely says the Angels are going all in. Given that they have declared themselves in the race, they need to do everything they can to find offensive help.

Mike Napoli is hitting well and doing a sufficient job filling in at first, but the team needs to replace the middle of the order presence left by Kendry Morales. That middle of the order bat is not Alberto Callapso. There is a reason the Adam Dunn to the Angels rumor has been circulating for years; he would be a great fit. Conspiracy theory: the Angels plan on flipping Dan Haren for a bat.

The White Sox Need to Stand Pat

Despite sitting atop the AL Central standings, the White Sox should not be aggressively pursuing players at the deadline. Kenny Williams and the Sox need remember that Jake Peavy is hurt, they are fighting with the Twins and Tigers, and would still be sitting in third place if it weren’t for one massive winning streak (right before the All-Star break). Yes the playoffs is a crapshoot where anything can happen, but even if the ChiSox sneak into the dance can anyone really see them beating the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays? The White Sox don’t need to be sellers, but given the trades they made last year (acquiring Alex Rios and Peavy), it would serve their long-term interests to not give up more prospects and hope they can win with their current team.

Happy Trails KGJ

2010-06-12T14:47:00.000-07:00

Last Wednesday night when Ken Griffey Jr. retired, the baseball world unanimously agreed that it was sending off one of the game’s all time greats. For someone like me who grew up in the 1990s, Ken Griffey Jr. won’t just be remembered as one of baseball’s all-time greats, he will be remembered as a player who’s combination of ability and personality will leave him untouched as the greatest and most influential baseball player I will ever watch.

As a kid in the 1990s, Griffey was the obvious choice as a favorite player. It wasn’t because he was the best player in baseball (which he was), it was because he had so much fun playing baseball, and that’s why he was so easy to relate to. As focused on winning as Junior was, he exuded a love for the game that appears to be missing in most dominant athletes. When you think of superstars like Kobe Bryant, Alexander Ovechkin and Tiger Woods, these athletes convey first and foremost a love of competition and winning. Griffey, every bit as talented as the above mentioned, will be remembered for having fun: No one can forget the gigantic smile on Junior’s face when scored the winning run in the 1995 ALDS or his ear to ear grins when robbing some flabbergasted hitter of a home run. Griffey’s disassociation with the “win at all costs mentality” (coupled with his lack of interest in working out) can no doubt be one of the reasons he has left baseball as one of the only players of his era, entirely removed suspicion of performance enhancing drug use.

Not only did Griffey embody the child-like virtue of having fun, he also never lost the young person’s propensity to play the game hard. There was no wall KG wasn’t willing to crash into, and no ball he wasn’t willing to lay out for. This is what made him so exciting to watch. Sure Barry Bonds was raking, but when did he rob anyone of a home run? While Griffey’s willingness to slide, dive, or crash into anything may have lead to a few more injuries, (the catch that broke his wrist in 1995 is still one of the greatest ever) it also led to the highlight reel plays that made him so thrilling to watch.

What is not to be lost in celebrating Junior’s love for the game, was just how talented a player he was. Given the rash of injuries he suffered throughout his time in Cincinnati, last Wednesday’s announcement sparked many baseball commentators to ask “what could have been?” if Griff had stayed healthy. “What could have been?” is something that you ask high school football players, draft day phenoms, and the writers of Lost. This is not a question that should be asked in relation to Ken Griffey Jr., because of what he did do. He finished his career as the dominant all around player of his generation, one of the greatest home run hitters (5th on the all time list) and center fielders (10 consecutive Gold Gloves) of all time.

Numbers alone will illustrate that KGJ had one of the great careers in major league baseball history. Numbers aside, what makes Ken Griffey Jr. so special to me is not that he hit so many home runs, but how much he loved hitting them; not that he was a great defensive outfielder, but how hard he went after every ball. That combination of talent and love for the game won’t be matched by another player for a very long time.

What to do With a Surprising Amount of Sock

2010-05-26T13:39:00.000-07:00

Toronto’s offence seemingly just keeps rolling. After a weekend in which the Blue Birds hit six home runs on Friday night and scored twelve runs two days later, it is safe to say that no one saw this year’s tater surge coming. Toronto is far and away out homering the rest of baseball, and it is in large part due to many pleasant surprises in the Jays lineup: Kevin Youkilis Jr. (John Buck) and Alex Gonzalez are both on pace for career highs in ding dongs. Edwin Encarnacion came off the DL to hit 5 bombs in one weekend, and Jose Bautista leads the majors in homers, no one saw this coming. While it is easy to get excited about this unexpected power surge and a 27-20 start; I am hoping that cooler heads prevail inside the Jays organization and this season is still treated as the first year of a rebuilding process.

Treating this team as one that is rebuilding means several things for the currently surging Jays. With Bautista, Encarnacion and Fred Lewis all exceeding expectations, creating playing time for Travis Snider will prove to be a challenge. Developing young players that will become cornerstones of the franchise should still be priority number one (unless we plan on singing Alex Gonzalez long term). Hopefully someone that has the potential to become an impact player like Snider doesn’t have to ride the pine because Cito wants to play the hot hand of Fred Lewis.

Despite the Jay’s impressive home run total, this offence needs to be put into perspective. Friday against Arizona the team hit six dingers and STILL lost. While the Jays may be leading the league in homers, they sit 12th in the 14 team AL in on base percentage, which is not the sign of a dominant offensive team and suggests the Jays will be fumbling to score runs if the home run fountain dries up. The Jays coaching staff needs to be preaching patience along with power if this team wants to truly develop into an offensive force.

Lastly, the surprise offensive output of so many different Blue Jay hitters should be used to do what rebuilding teams do best: trade for younger players. Many around baseball are suggesting that Jose Bautista is for real: he has made adjustments to his swing that will translate into sustained results (it is also important to note that despite his .241 average, he has a respectable OBP. Of .354). That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t sell high on players like Alex Gonzalez, Fred Lewis, and John Buck (on the pitching side of things Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor could be attractive to contending teams). If any of these chips can be turned into productive young players, they Jays should pull the trigger.

Despite this offensive surge the Jays are still facing several challenges: they sit in third place, 7 games behind the Rays, the fourth place Red Sox are beginning to surge and Kevin Gregg is currently closing. As exciting as the team is playing, taking the long view in this situation by focusing on player development and building for the future will ensure that two years from now the are contending and not just exciting.

So It's Been Four Weeks...

2010-05-03T09:20:00.000-07:00

We are four weeks into the 2010 season and before we start buying Alex Gonzalez jersey’s (don’t do it) or putting all our money on the San Diego Padres to win the NL (don’t do it), let’s take a minute to evaluate some of the unexpected things that have happened this April and predict what surprises are for real and what teams and players will come back down to earth.

Will Travis Snider Hit Under .200?

Things look bleak for the Jays sophomore, but don’t worry everyone, stat heads to the rescue! Snider has one of the lowest batting average on balls in play in the major leagues. Translation: he has run into a streak of bad luck and is swinging the bat much better than his average suggests. If Cito keeps with him (and he should) Travis’ numbers will improve.

Red Sox Woes

Let’s not freak out Red Sox Nation, the team is still playing .500 baseball but there are reasons for concern. There were questions about Boston’s offence coming into the season, and with injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with the continual struggles of David Ortiz the offence has been more anemic that the BoSox are used to. This may be a problem (although one that can be addressed via trade) in the coming months, but what is really responsible for the Red Sox slow start is poor pitching and defense. Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey have ERA’s over 5.00 and Victor Martinez has throw out 2 baserunners all month. I wouldn’t expect either of these trends to continue all season long: Lackey and Beckett are quality pitchers and should rebound as the season moves along and Daisuke Matsuzaka is replacing Wakefield in the rotation. While he is no Johnny Bench, Victor Martinez is a better defensive catcher than how he is playing (he has thrown out 30% of runners in past seasons). Once the catching and pitching are sorted, the Red Sox will be in a better position to judge how the 2010 team will perform.

Is Andruw Jones Going to Rake All Year?

Over the last few years, Andruw Jones’ production has deteriorated to the point that his signing with the White Sox this winter went virtually unnoticed. This year he reported to camp in great shape and has already hit 8 big flies for the Sox. Can he keep it up? There are reasons to believe he can: He is playing his home games at US Cellular Field, one of the best hitters parks in the American League, he is protected in the order by Paul Konerko and Carlos Quinten but most importantly, Jones appears to be more motivated than he has been in years past (hence the better shape). Jones’ talent coupled with his newfound work ethic, should ensure that he continues to produce all year for the South Siders.

Seattle’s Offensive Struggles

Every sports writer in America is muttering “I told you so” over this one. What I can’t understand is why Jermaine Dye is still sitting at home without a contract.

Are the Mets for Real?

Let’s wait and see. I expect the New York offence to produce enough to contend but it all depends on their pitching. Right now, Mike Pelfrey has an ERA under 2.00, Jon Niese is pitching incredibly well for a rookie and Oliver Perez is still the most expensive fifth starter in baseball. Its only May and I do expect that these two young pitchers come back to earth but if they can continue put up decent numbers behind Johan Santana, the Mets may not overtake the Phillies but they do have a shot at staying in playoff contention.

2010 Preview: National League East

2010-03-26T08:25:00.000-07:00

The Favourite - Philadelphia Phillies

Far and away the best team in the NL East, the two time National League Champs are still the favourite to win both their division and the National League. With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the Phils are also the sentimental choice for Blue Jays fans that are realistic about their own teams 2010 possibilities. In the last few years the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the upper echelon of MLB teams, so to be division favourites is not enough anymore, the Phils are trying to hang with and beat the Yankees and Red Sox every year. With that in mind, the Phillies have a few holes that the other super powers do not. The Philadelphia bullpen was a mess in 2009 but I expect Brad Lidge to rebound; he was struggling in Houston when he was traded to the Phillies two years ago and he responded by having one of the most dominant seasons ever by a relief pitcher. The signing of Danys Baez should also help fortify the relief corps. The starting rotation behind Halladay also contains question marks: can Cole Hamels bounce back? Can J.A. Happ continue to improve (and contribute during the playoffs) and can Jamie Moyer stave off death long enough to complete a 40th season in the major leagues? Many baseball people suggest that Cole Hamels was particularly unlucky last year, citing strong peripheral stats (a similar strikeout to walk ratio as his breakout 2007 season and an extremely high opponents batting average on balls in play), on top of this, pitching behind Roy Halladay can only have a positive effect (just ask A.J. Burnett). A return to form by Hamels and continued improvement by Happ is likely and should solidify a rotation that in a worst case scenario can be put on the shoulders of one pitcher (Doc is that good). The offence is one of the best in the majors, and should only be solidified by the addition of Placido Polanco. Don't be surprised however if you see a regression by Raul Ibanez (age) and Jayson Werth (who is coming off a career year). Make no mistake this Phillies team is strong and any questions they have are the questions of a championship caliber team not a team that may or may not win the NL East.

The Challengers

Atlanta Braves

After an unprecedented run, 2010 will be Bobby Cox's last season managing in the major leagues, and this makes the Braves a sentimental pick for many people around baseball. In 2009 the Braves had one of the best rotations in baseball, and despite an offseason trade of Javier Vazquez the rotation is still one of the team's strengths. Even with Vazquez gone, the development of Atlanta's young hurlers Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson should offset the loss and allow the rotation to pitch the way it did in 2009. In the bullpen, many questioned the Braves decision to sign 39-year-old Billy Wagner (only a year removed from Tommy John surgery) to close, although his supporters point out that he did look good late last year with Boston. The offence also has a few question marks: Chipper Jones has vowed to retire if he can't elevate his game above its 2009 level and the production the Braves can extract from Troy Glaus (injury) and Jason Heyward (inexperience) is yet to be determined. Despite these uncertainties I expect Bobby Cox to pull the rabbit out of his hat one last time and keep the Tomahawk Choppers competitive in 2010.

New York Mets

There is no team in the major leagues more dysfunctional than the New York Mets. This offseason, headlines about the Mets included their very questionable acquisitions (they actually traded FOR Gary Matthews Jr. and bid against themselves for Jason Bay), their failed negotiations with several free agent catchers (Bengie Molina, Yorvit Torreabla) and very public arguments about whether or not it was ok for Carlos Beltran to go under the knife. When all the dust had settled, the Mets still had no one to start behind Johan Santana and an offence that does not play well to their cavernous home ballpark. The Mets are an expensive team so I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow stay in the race, but I will be equally unsurprised if they melt down yet again.

Florida Marlins

With the signing of Josh Johnson, the Marlins have assured their fans that they will not turn into the southern version of the Montreal Expos and in Hanley Ramirez the Marlins have one of the most exciting and dynamic offensive players in the major leagues. While the Marlins have more bright spots than they have had in recent years (Cody Ross, Chris Coghlan, Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco) but they made need one more year for players like Anibal Sanchez, Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez to develop before they can mount a strong challenge in the NL East.

Maybe Next Year

Washington Nationals

For the last few years, the Nationals have consistently been the worst team in the major leagues. That may change this year. They will still be awful and finish last in the NL East, but they may not be the worst team in baseball. Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham form a respectable middle of the lineup but Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and John Lannan at the top of the rotation spells trouble for the Nats in 2010.

2010 NL Central Preview

2010-03-17T12:45:00.000-07:00

The Favorite

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the NL Central favourites for 4 reasons: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter and Wainwright are dominant the top of the rotation, while Pujols and Holliday anchor the middle of the Cards lineup. After that it comes down to whatever manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan can milk out of the rest of the roster. Luckily for Cardinals fans, the coaching staff has a pretty good record of turning Kyle Loshe into sugar (why else would they sign Brad Penny?). The recent signing of Felipe Lopez should help in stabilizing the offence and questions about the back end of the rotation and bullpen are minor enough that it should not hinder the Cards from repeating as division champs

The Contenders

Chicago Cubs

The 2009 season was somewhat of a disaster for the Cubs. Jim Hendry was the only person on the planet who believed the two angriest people in baseball - Lou Pinella and Milton Bradley - could get along with each other. Geovany Soto was hit with the dreaded sophomore jinx and the stocky backstop took a step backwards, while Alfonso Soriano lived up to his contract in much the same manner as Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has. The Cubs have added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to shore up their outfield and I expect Mike Fontenot to have a better season than last year in the Cubs infield (he hit almost 40 points lower than his 2008 average). Last year’s disaster season still yielded 83 wins for the Cubs, so with Mad Milton out of the picture there is no reason to believe the Cubs won’t be in the thick of the race this year as well.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bernie Brewer better invest in a good pair of overalls, because with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun socking dingers, Bernie will be wearing out the seat of his pants going down the slide at Miller Park every time the Brew Crew hit a home run. Along with Braun and Fielder, I expect improved power numbers from Corey Hart and third baseman Casey McGehee. However there are still some question marks in the Brewers lineup (Gregg Zaun is their starting catcher) and like many teams, the Brewers will go as far as their pitching can take them. I expect Doug Davis, Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan to pitch to their league average levels, but if Yovani Gallardo can improve and Manny Para can get his ERA under six the Brewers can stay in the race.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are this year’s sexy pick for surprise contender in the NL and I can see why they are such an alluring pick. The team is fairly strong offensively – the only major question mark is center field, where the Reds will most likely start rookie Drew Stubbs. While regression could be a problem for veterans such as Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez and Orlando Cabrera, young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should continue to improve on their 2009 seasons. Veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo (who recorded a CD with the same name as my blog) should keep the pressure off promising young Reds starters Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, and Johnny Cueto. This makes the Reds just as dangerous (although more unproven) as the Brewers and Cubs in challenging for the division title.

Maybe Next Year

Houston Astros

Carlos Lee is still hitting baseballs as hard as he hits the clubhouse spread, and that is a good thing for the Astros. What is not a good thing for the Astros is Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon were their biggest free agent signings this offseason (no offence Pedro Feliz). Houston’s pitching is still below where it needs to be to contend in the NL Central in 2010.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Well, maybe not next year, maybe two years. But hey, PNC Park is gorgeous.

2010 NL West Preview

2010-03-11T09:34:00.000-08:00

The Favorite

Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite losing several key players to free agency (Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson) and one to a lack of interest in baseball (Manny Ramirez). This is still the Dodgers division to lose. They have a young core of hitters in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and James Loney that compliment veteran hitters like Ramierz, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake well. While the rotation lacks a true ace (it is very possible that Clayton Kershaw could prove that statement wrong this year), the Dodgers rotation does have depth. The bullpen is also strength as Jonathan “brick house” Broxton has quickly become a shutdown closer. Two keys for the Dodgers in repeating as division champs are how quickly Russ Martin can recover from injury and if Vicente Padilla can be the same pitcher he was after the Dodgers acquired him late last season.

The Contenders

Colorado Rockies

The only reason there isn’t more discussion of Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez is that no one can spell his name correctly (this is also the reason more Rockies fans don’t have his jersey). The lanky, fire-balling righty is a dominant pitcher with a ton of upside and continues to improve. If Jimenez, Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa can pitch as well as they did last year (a return to form from Jeff Francis would be gravy), Troy Tulowitzki and the thin air at Coors field will take care of the rest.

San Francisco Giants

Offence. Just get some offence.

Arizona Diamondbacks

After a disappointing 2009, the D-backs could be poised for a winning season in 2010 and may surprise some people. If things break right for the D-Backs, don’t be surprised if they are contenders. That being said, much of the team’s success hinges on many unknowns. While the lineup was solidified with the addition of Adam Laroche, will Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds continue to develop? Can Conor Jackson return to form after playing only 30 games in 2009? Will Chris Young ever hit over .210? The rotation could have one of the best one two punches in the game if Brandon Webb (paired with Dan Haren) can return to form after major surgery. There are also questions about Edwin Jackson (who faded badly in the second half of 2009) and Ian Kennedy at the back end of the rotation. The signing of new closer Brandon Lyon (remember him Jays fans?) was also heavily scrutinized this offseason. In a competitive NL West the odds may be against them, but I am not ready to count Arizona out yet.

Maybe Next Year

San Diego Padres

Don’t despair Padres fans. With Jed Hoyer at the helm there is also reason to hope. If Chris Young, Heath Bell or Adrian Gonzalez are traded, Hoyer is the man to make a deal that is right for the Friars. The Padres also have acquired some high ceiling prospects (pitcher Clayton Richard) that should start to contribute sooner rather than later. In the meantime though, other than the above-mentioned players Tony Gwynn (junior of course) is one of the more recognizable faces on the 2010 Padres. Yikes.

It's That Time of Year

2010-02-24T07:25:00.000-08:00

Everybody has that one friend. They aren’t a sports fan, they are a sport fan. It’s the guy who watches the completely meaningless Raptors game instead of playoff hockey, or the guy who insists on watching the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in July instead of watching Italy and France in the World Cup final. When it comes to baseball, I am that fan. So with the Olympics in full swing, the only thing that I am interested in is pitchers and catchers reporting to camp and all the great rituals that accompany it.

One great ritual of spring is the reappearance of baseball games on television. This usually occurs once a week starting in mid-March in the form of a Saturday afternoon game. As I mentioned above, these games are not for sports fans but rather only for baseball fans. Only someone who truly loves baseball could put up with (what is often) shots from a single, stationary camera behind home plate and the split squad rosters that ensure you won’t see a single player that will make the opening day roster play more than two innings. These games are so lax that the players don’t even wear real jerseys. Despite these glaring shortcomings, there is nothing like watching that first game of the year to remind myself that I really only watch football because there is nothing else on.

Another great ritual of springtime is the requisite smack talk that occurs between rival teams. This year has been so exception. Not sure who the best pitcher in the NL East is? Don’t worry, Johan Santana will tell you. Not sure who will win the division? No sweat, David Wright knows. All that is missing so far in the Mets/Phillies smack talk is for Roy Halladay to tell a ‘yo momma’ joke aimed at Carlos Beltran. As ludicrous and misinformed as these predictions can be, they a little drama can keep things interesting during a time of year when starting players only play a few innings a game.

Spring training is a great time of the year to be a baseball fan for many reasons but the biggest and best of these reasons is that everything is still possible and nothing has been proven untrue: Rookies will perform the same way in the majors that they did in the minors, veterans won’t regress, injured players will return to form, and yes that awful year he had last year was just an aberration (or the last few in the case of Lyle Overbay). Whatever the uncertainty looms large for your favorite team, the cold hard realities of the major league season have not yet kicked in and deflated their chances. For the Jays this means that as of right now Ricky Romero can contend for the Cy Young, Shaun Marcum will return to form, Travis Snider will hit 40 homers, Vernon Wells will earn half his money and Jose Bautista will not play like Jose Bautista.

For many teams not expected to contend (and the Mets), the season can be a long one, but when spring training starts, we all still have the same record. This makes spring training worth watching not only for the rituals and but the hope and excitement that may not be there for fans of every team come June or July. And that’s what makes spring training exciting for all sports fans.

Keeping the Burner On: A Few Ideas for the End of the Hot Stove Season

2010-02-11T22:14:00.000-08:00

Boston Bring in a Big Bat

Yeah they upgraded their pitching (Lackey) and defense (Beltre and Cameron) but the defending champion Yankees added pitching and of their own (not to mention Curtis Granderson). Boston has a deep and versatile lineup but if the season started tomorrow would anyone in Beantown really be comfortable with Shrek (David Ortiz), J.D. Drew, or Victor Martinez hitting fourth? The Sox still lack the dominant middle of the order bat that is needed to usurp the Yankees as AL champs. Not only are the Yankees as rich as ever but it looks like they are starting to make very sound baseball decisions to go with their money. If Boston wants to keep up with the Steinbrenners Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez may be worth a handful of prospects.

Really Detroit? Johnny Damon?

Only months after trading the most popular man in Michigan due to payroll issues, the Tigers are thinking of signing Johnny Damon. Damon is still a productive player and could provide to be a steal if he comes at the right price, but if I was a Tigers fan I would not take kindly to seeing Granderson and his affordable contract being shipped to the Yankees only to see him replaced with an older and comparably priced outfielder (and Jose Valverde).

Wang, Dye, Blalock Go West!

While Seattle has been deemed one of this offseason’s winners, the team still appears to be lacking power and starting pitching depth. If the team took a flyer on Chien-Ming Wang, Jermaine Dye or Hank Blalock (either seems like a better fit than Eric Byrnes) it would solidify the team as a playoff contender. Bringing back Jarrod Washburn wouldn’t hurt either.

Toronto: Bring Big Hot Carl(os)

This might be a tough year for the Jays so what better way to distract fans than bringing back and aging icon? Hey it worked in Seattle. Carlos could provide us with a link to the “glory days” (those 75-85 win teams of the 2000s) and make us forget what the Jays are doing on the field in 2010. Plus he is still probably a better hitter than many of the Jays regulars…if only he could play on the left side of the infield.

Alex Anthopoulos Interm Report Card

2010-01-25T13:25:00.000-08:00

As Alex Anthopoulos nears the end of his first hundred days on the job as Blue Jays GM, things have run a little smoother in the front office than Blue Jays fans are used to. He hasn’t called out Adam Dunn or sent anyone to the minor leagues for calling him a pimp. He has also made some significant moves that will shape the roster for years to come. The biggest of these moves was Anthopoulos’ signing of outfielder Jeremy Reed to a minor league contract. Anthopoulos also traded Roy Halladay.

Anthopoulos’ three way trade with the Phillies and Mariners was the biggest of the winter, and left the Jays with Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud and Brett Wallace (who was acquired for Michael Taylor, the third player Toronto received). While losing Roy may have been tough to swallow for Blue Jays fans, it replenished a farm system that was left barren by J.P. Riccardi. Drabek and Wallace are now Toronto’s #1 and #2 prospects according to Baseball America (which leaves me to wonder who J.P. has been drafting for the last three years). On top of Drabek and Wallace, Travis D’Arnaud gives us hope that we won’t have to reacquire Gregg Zaun next winter. Given that Roy was leaving after 2010 and he was closer to free agency than at the July trade deadline, I have to give Alex credit for making the best of a bad situation and landing some prospects with more upside than anyone else in the Blue Jays farm system.

Anthopoulos’ other significant moves this winter were to sign Alex Gonzalez, John Buck and trade for Seattle’s Brandon Morrow. John Buck and Brendan Morrow both filled holes (although the Jays definitely need more than one starting pitcher) and Anthopoulos was smart not to overspend when the Jays still seem a couple years away from contention. The Alex Gonzalez signing now gives Toronto two defensively skilled, light hitting shortstops which led me to wonder why the move was made. Last year’s offensive spike aside, Alex Gonzalez is a pretty comparable offensive player to John McDonald and everyone in Toronto would love to see Johnny Mac get a chance at a starting job. That being said, the Gonzalez signing is relatively low cost and shouldn’t hinder the Jays moving forward.

Anthopoulos’ first hundred days as GM involved all the moves made by a rebuilding of a team, while that may be depressing news for Jays fans, it appears as though at least we’ve found someone who is going about it the right way.

One Team to Watch in 2010

2010-01-19T12:35:00.000-08:00

One of the noisiest teams this off season has been the Seattle Mariners. Second year GM Jack Zduriencik has made several big deals that have lead many to suggest that Seattle is one of the teams to watch in 2010. Moneyballers have also been singing the praises of “Big Z”, calling him one of the best general managers in the game and many are picking Seattle as this year’s AL West favorites. Now there is NO ONE that wants to see Junior make it to the big dance in what is probably his last season more than I do, but I am a little more cautious about the 2010 Mariners.

Make no mistake about it, Jack Zduriencik is trying to build the Mariners around speed, pitching and defense, and this year’s major offseason acquisitions (Chone Figgins, Cliff Lee and Casey Kotchman) highlight this. Given that Safeco Field is bigger than Jay Leno’s chin (I’m with Coco) you can’t fault Z for building his team this way, but the fact is that even teams built on pitching and D need power threats, something that Seattle doesn’t appear to have. Last season’s two biggest power threats Russell Branyan and Adrian Beltre are gone, inheriting the middle of the line-up is Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez and Milton Bradley - not exactly a murderer’s row. Gutierrez and Lopez are good hitters with power, but are they really number 3 or 4 hitters on a playoff team? We also need to remember that if someone sneezes in Bradley’s vicinity he may take it as a personal attack against him (or an act of racism) and become totally useless to the team. Even someone as likable as Ken Griffey may not be able to keep Mad Milton happy for 8 months. Assuming that Big Griff doesn’t put up his 1993 numbers, this leaves the M’s lacking a bona fide power threat in the middle of their order

The Mariners have other concerns as well. While Seattle’s pitching is appeared to be much improved with the addition of Cliff Lee, the Mariners will be without Jarred Washburn and Brendan Morrow, big contributors to last year’s staff. While Lee improves the staff, the loss of these two pitchers needs to be considered, which makes the staff only marginally better at best. Also troubling is last year’s run differential of -52 which suggests that the 85 wins the team accumulated are not entirely reflective of the team’s performance – the M’s may have enjoyed more than their fair share of lucky bounces. Catching is another major issue. Can anyone name a catcher on their 40 man roster?

Yes, the Angels are significantly worse than they were last year and Oakland is still at least a couple years away, but this Mariners team may not be as good as advertised. The 2007 M’s were a team built on pitching and defence on the cusp of a breakthrough. That off season they made the acquisitions necessary (Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva) to put them over the top. On top of their 100 loss season the next year, Seattle fans get to see Adam Jones rake in Baltimore as a reminder of their misplaced optimism. For Junior’s sake let’s hope that 2010 isn’t a little piece of history repeating.

Halladay Trade Talks

2009-12-11T09:40:00.000-08:00

It’s that special time of year where the amount of gossip in baseball could rival any high school cafeteria, which leaves anyone with an opinion on baseball with plenty to write about. These days most of this baseball gossip is centered on the only starting pitcher on the Blue Jays that didn’t pitch in AAA ball last year; Roy Halladay. New Jay’s GM Alex Anthopoulos has once again made Roy available and unlike JP Riccardi in July, he is not asking for every player that his trading partner signed in the 2007 draft. Depending on which MLB tabloid you read, either the Yankees, Phillies, or Angels are the frontrunners to land Roy, with the Red Sox, Mets and Rays also kicking the tires on a potential trade. People are also split on whether or not Roy would require a contract extension before a trade could be negotiated or if he would veto a trade to any west coast teams or non-contenders.

While the Yankees dealt away Austin Jackson to land Curtis Granderson, they still have the players to make a deal (pitchers Camberlin and Hughes, as well as catching prospect Jesus Montero). The Angels have also potentially offered Erick Aybar, Joe Saunders and a prospect, and the Phillies have offered a package centered on JA Happ. While some are suggesting the Yankees have the best chance at landing Doc, if I were the Jays I would be cautious of Yankee trade proposals. One reason I am skeptical is that the Yankees were unwilling to move either Chamberlin or Hughes in a trade for Johan Santana two years ago and are now willing to part with them. Did the Yankee hype machine turn both pitchers into franchise prospects, when now they look more like merely solid major league pitchers? (Admittedly, the verdict is still out). On top of this, the Yankees only seem willing to give up either Joba Chamberlin or Phil Hughes and not both. Let’s also not forget that party animal Joba Chamberlin could become entirely useless once he gets a taste for Canadian beer. There are also holes in the game of another potential trade centerpiece, catching prospect Jesus Montero. While he has the potential to be a great hitter, he has many scouts believing that he won’t be able to stick as a catcher in the major leagues, which greatly diminishes his value. Assuming that a contract extension does not need to be negotiated and that Halladay would not veto any potential trades, from the Jays perspective it appears as though the Angels would be the best trading partner. The players LA is offering are young, affordable, major league proven and still under club control. Why roll the dice on Yankee prospects, when you can get proven players from LA? There is also talk that the Jays could then even flip Joe Saunders for more prospects if they so desired.

This also keeps Doc out of the AL East.
Like July, one thing that has me confounded is why Boston isn’t making a stronger push for Doc. Josh Beckett is a year away from free agency, Tim Wakefield is a year away from being 50, and there are questions about how Dice-K will pitch this year. On top of this Roy is a certified Yankee killer, and would change the complexion of the AL East race. And I’m sure what’s most pressing to Red Sox fans is that if Boston doesn’t go after Roy and he ends up with New York, their rotation would be scary good. If I’m the Bosox, Doc is definitely worth giving up Clay Bucholtz. Wherever and whenever Roy gets dealt, let’s hope by that time that Scott Boras has generated enough smack talk to keep the rest of the winter interesting.

World Series Wrap Up – A Biased Review from a Yankee Hater

2009-11-11T09:42:00.000-08:00

First World Series victory since 2000? Don’t care. A-Rod finally overcoming his postseason demons? Don’t care. Good for baseball to have Yanks in World Series? Don’t care. Whatever positives come with the Yankees winning the World Series are moot points, to me they should never ever win anything. Here is why they shouldn’t have won this year.

Starting pitching – since when can a team with three starters win the World Series? No other team has even advanced to the World Series using three starters since the 1992 Atlanta Braves. It’s been said before and I will say it again – If you can’t buy four starters for 200 million dollars you shouldn’t win the World Series (and its not like their relief depth was the team’s saving grace either). The Yankees should be sending one of their nicest bottles of wine to whoever schedules the playoffs, because if CC Sabathia isn’t pitching every third game, I think this year’s parade might not go through Manhattan. Secondly, Yankee baseball was particularly frustrating, namely their frequent mound visits and time taken in between pitches. If you want to grind out at bats and take pitches, all the power to you, but for God’s sake stop making a game that is already as slow as erosion even slower. This year’s Yankees were especially bad at over frequently visiting the mound. During game 4 there was one middle inning where Jorge Posada wasn’t even giving out signs, just walking out after every pitch to talk over what the next pitch would be.

Lastly, what irks me the most about the Yankees winning this year was how beatable they looked at certain points. The Angels were a better overall team, but played themselves out of the playoffs with mental errors and their own nervousness. The Phillies took game 1, dominated A.J. Burnett in game 5 and if Brad Lidge doesn’t walk Johnny Damon (I haven’t seen anyone steal two bases on one pitch since I played mosquito) in the ninth inning of game 4, this could be an entirely different series. Throughout the playoffs, the Yankees didn’t hit the way they are capable of. Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeria and Melky Cabrerra all failed to contribute and the Yankees suspect bullpen (and back of the rotation) was not exploited to its full extent. So despite my hatred for the Yankees and my belief that they shouldn’t of taken it all this year, no team stepped up and beat them and that is something I can’t argue with, even if that leaves me grumbling to myself all winter.

ALCS Preview

2009-10-14T17:15:00.000-07:00

The Yankees have been the odds on favorite to win the World Series since before the playoffs began, and to solidify their status as favorites, they made quick and easy work of the Minnesota Twins during the first round. While the Angels were historically unable to handle the Red Sox in the playoffs, this year they exercised their demons by sweeping the Bosox with a dramatic come from behind victory at Fenway Park. There are good reasons to believe that the Yankees are still the odds on favorite to win. Their lineup is one of the most prolific lineups in recent memory and by far the most dangerous lineup in the playoffs. On top of this, much is being made of Alex Rodriguez’s recent post season awakening. There is no letting up with the Yankees offence – they had at least 8 players hit over 20 home runs this year in the regular season. On the mound, this years edition of the Yankees is also the best that it has been in the last few years – CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett are a formidable one two punch at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen is significantly deeper than it has been in the past with Joba Chamberlin and Phil Hughes bridging the gap to Rivera in the ninth. While this Yankee team is good, the Angels are a far better team than Minnesota and a potential upset is not out of the question. While Sabathia and Burnett (depending on which Burnett shows up to pitch) are possibly the two best starters in the series, I believe the Angels starters one through four are better than the Yankees starters. The Angels number 3 and 4 starters (Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders) possess a decided advantage over the Yankees Andy Pettite and Chad Gaudin. While this lack of depth wasn’t a problem for New York in a short five game series, in a best of seven LCS format, this may play a significant factor. Accompanying the Angels starting pitching depth is an offence that more potent and well rounded than Angels teams of the past. In the past the Angels offence relied to heavily on Vladimir Gurrero, but with the additions of Bobby Abreau and Tori Hunter, combined with the emergence of Kendry Morales, all Vlad has to worry about now is trying not to swing at pitches that are going to hit him in the face. The Angels also have excellent team speed thanks to Chone Figgins, Reggie Wilits and Erick Aybar. With George Posada behind the plate, the Yankees inability to contain the running game has been a problem all year long. Another bad sign for the Yankees is that in their first round match up with Boston, the Angels hitters looked very comfortable against the power arms of the Red Sox bullpen, tagging Jonathan Paplebon for four runs in the final game. The Angels offence may not be as good as the Yankees, but they are much more dangerous than the Twins team that New York contained for three games. One area where the Yankees do possess a particularly clear advantage over the Angels is in the bullpen – Brian Fuentes has not been the dominant closer Los Angeles had hoped for when they signed him and with Chamberlin, Hughes and Rivera in the Yankee pen, they can shorten a game to seven innings when they are leading. Here is my prediction for the series: Kate Hudson dumps A-Rod, AJ Burnett and George Posada get in a fight, Scott Boras demands that Mark Tiexeria be traded mid series, Joba Chamberlin gets another DUI, Andy Pettite starts doing steroids again, no matter who is winning Erick Aybar smiles the whole time and the Angels win in seven.

The End of the Riccardi Era

2009-10-05T14:11:00.000-07:00

Over the weekend, Paul Beeston did what many Blue Jays fans wanted done a long time ago. J.P Riccardi’s record as an executive was a spotty one at best. Many have noted his lackluster draft record, his knack for signing players to bloated contracts that ended up biting the Jays in the ass and his inability to build a team that got passed the Yankees and Red Sox (even though the Rays did). But lets not give him shit because he passed on Troy Tulowtizski, traded away Michael Young, or gave long term contracts to Frank Thomas, Cory Koskie, BJ Ryan and Alex Rios. Let’s give him shit because he never knew how to handle being the front office voice for a major league team. It started when he traded Shannon Stewart to the Minnesota Twins the year Riccardi arrived in Toronto. Stewart complained that Riccardi handled the situation with little class, and since that day it seems that the most captivating stories around the Blue Jays (coincidentally because Riccardi hasn’t been able to build a team that can captivate us with their performance) have been J.P.’s blunders and mishaps. Remember when he sent Orlando Hudson to the minors for calling him a smooth pimp? Or when he publicly criticized Adam Dunn (and then lied about apologizing)? When Carlos Tosca was fired, many players were apparently forbidden from saying goodbye to him. What the hell J.P.? This summers handling of the Roy Halladay trade solidified the fact that J.P just couldn’t get it right when it came to handling the media pressures associated with being a general manager. But the one thing that chapped my ass most of all through the Riccardi years was J.P’s constant complaining about how hard it was to compete in the AL East with the Yankees and Red Sox. For eight years, he told Jays fans that they didn’t have a chance, always pointing to next year (and that was if things fell the right way). He essentially told us not to bother watching the team he put together. As badly as I want to be a major league general manager, sadly I am not. This means that I can look past Riccardi’s failings in terms of player development, free agent singings and the lack of on field results – I would probably do a worse job than him. But what I can’t look past is all the times he made Jays fans feel shitty about being Jays fans, by saying things that made the franchise look bad and by telling us we didn’t have a chance in hell. Here’s to hoping he handles his words with more care at his next job.

The MLB(ehave) Team

2009-09-21T13:16:00.000-07:00

Watching baseball on its own merits is great, but sometimes we get to enjoy a little extra entertainment, showmanship and drama as some players just can’t help but lose it. Here are my selections for the all-bad behavior team.

C – AJ Pierzynski: The only player who could get punched in the face by Michael Barrett and still not garner very much sympathy.
1B – Prince Fielder: Not only has he fought with members of his own team (Manny Parra) in the dugout, he waited outside the Dodgers clubhouse after getting beaned. Prince means business.
2B – Roberto Alomar: Class act on the Jays, not so much on the Orioles; needs to keep spit on the ground where it belongs.
SS – Alex Rodriguez: When he is not spending time in Toronto gentleman’s clubs, he is busy yelling at Blue Jays infielders and trying to knock the ball out of first baseman’s hands.
3B – Scott Rolen: Seemed like a good guy in Toronto, but you would have to pretty much punch a baby in the face to piss off Terry Francona.
OF – Milton Bradley: This board game enthusiast is the only player I have ever heard of tearing a his ACL while yelling at an umpire.
OF – Paul O’Neil: My first experience of a professional athlete throwing temper tantrum was seeing the right fielder lose it back in the early 90s.
OF – Carl Everett, responsible for more ruined baseball equipment than any other major league player in the 90s. His interviews are also entertaining, as he claims that dinosaurs never existed; the bones were placed there by God.
P – Roger Clements: This professional baseball player mistook a broken bat for a baseball and THAT is why he threw it at Mike Piazza. Luckily more baseball players don’t mistake shattered bats for balls.
P – Pedro Martinez: Remember when he threw Don Zimmer to the ground in that Yankees/Red Sox brawl? If you’re 45 years older than Pedro, don’t mess with him.
Manager – Lou Pinella: oh yeah.

Why I Want Boston to Win The Wild Card

2009-09-10T06:03:00.001-07:00

With only a few weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture has been all but set minus two key races. In the NL, the G-men and the Rockies are battling it to see who gets to lose to the Cardinals in the NLDS and in AL, the Wildcard is also still up for grabs. The good news for Jays fans is that we are only 13 or 14 games back. But if you choose not to suspend rational belief and suggest the Jays will make the playoffs, the AL race has come down to the big bad Red Sox and the fresh faced Texas Rangers. And while many people are rooting for underdog Texas to keep this years playoffs interesting, I am rooting for Goliath. This is because in baseball I root for two things - for the Blue Jays and against the Yankees. Texas may be new and interesting, but when it comes down to a playoff series, I want the Red Sox in because the have the best chance at taking down the juggernaut Yankees. This year despite many injuries (Dice-k, JD "I Don't Even Like Baseball" Drew) and subpar preformances (from David Ortiz, John Smoltz, Jason Varitek and even Josh Beckett to some extent) the Red Sox are still in a better position to beat New York. Their pitching is still far better than the Rangers: In the playoffs no one dials it up like Beckett, Jon Lester is emerging as a second ace, and Dice-K is slated to return soon. The bullpen is also much improved with the addition of set up man Billy Wagner as when he is on, can effectively shorten a game to seven innings Offensively, they have enough veterans to steady the ship in high pressure playoff situations and enough younger players (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk) to prevent an October fade. While wanting the Yankees out may seem like a selfish personal reason for wanting the BoSox in the playoffs, we will all win because it will lead to better better playoff baseball. As much as I hate them, New York is looking like the best team in the AL right so I want the team with the best chance at taking them down. So until the Yankees are golfing its Go Red Sox and root for the underdog later.

Payroll Disparities and the Death of Moneyball

2009-08-27T10:41:00.000-07:00

Recently Joe Posnanski wrote an article for Sports Illustrated proclaiming that Moneyball has died - not by virtue of its ineffectiveness, but rather because its principles have been absorbed by larger market teams, which once again leaves small market teams at a disadvantage. He points to how larger market teams started valuing OBP and walks just as much as Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s and that these small market teams are once again left out in the cold looking for a way to compete against the Wal-marts of professional baseball. While this once again sounds like discouraging news for any team not based in New York or Los Angeles, the news isn’t all bad. Spending money does not guarantee you anything in baseball and teams that invest reasonably (in both payroll or organizational development) still do have a chance at making it to the big dance. For all the success of the major market teams, there have also been many failures. The New York Yankees continually spend at least double to that of most teams in the way of payroll yet have not won a World Series since 2000. While many would suggest that the Yanks are still able to field competitive teams and make the playoffs, when you are spending 70 million dollars more than the next closest team (and 188 million more than the Florida Marlins), is that really any excuse or consolation? If it was my 209 million dollars (Yankees ‘09 payroll) I would have fielded three different MLB teams with 70 million dollar payrolls and taken my chances that way. Of 2009’s top 10 spenders the Mets, Cubs, Mariners, Astros and (potentially) Tigers are all at risk of not making the playoffs. Many smaller and mid market teams have been able to build winners despite not being able to spend like the big boys: the Cardinals, Rays, Rockies, Twins, Brewers and Indians have continually made playoff runs in the last few years despite limited payrolls. While Posnanski might suggest that these teams have the advantage of time – being able to tolerate losing at certain points while their young players develop or the roster is rebuilt; big spending teams lose at almost the same clip. The Yankees, Tigers and Mets all missed the playoffs last year despite all ranking in the top 5 in spending. The Giants, Astros and Mariners are all big spenders that have continually failed to make the playoffs over the last 5 years. Since we inked BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett, the Jays have continued to spend significant amounts of money without making the playoffs. J.P. might want to complain about how much the Yankees and Boston spend but you know who doesn’t? 2008 American League Champion Tampa Bay. It would be wrong to suggest that there is no correlation between spending money and being competitive, spending does increase your chances of winning, but all is not lost. Teams with strong scouting/drafting and player development programs (the Cardinals turn seemingly every castoff pitcher into gold; or, productive outfielders in the case of Rick Ankiel) still have a chance at making the playoffs. What is the fun in rooting for Wal-mart anyway?

Top 5 Ballparks

2009-08-20T12:40:00.000-07:00

Every year at this time my buddy Max and several other friends go on an annual vacation where they spend a week driving around the US taking in baseball games at several different major and minor league ballparks. This has inspired me to write this weeks blog on my own favorite ballparks. Feel free to weigh in

1) Wrigley Field (Chicago Cubs) - Aside from Albert Pujlos, The Friendly Confines might be the only thing that makes the National League worth watching. It is the only ballpark I know planted right in the middle of a residential neighborhood, and the ivy brick outfield wall gives Alfonso Soriano and the rest of the Cubs outfielders an excuse for dogging it.

2) Yankee Stadium (NY Yankees) - I absolutely can't stand the Yankees but hey, it is Yankee Stadium. There is more history in that ballpark than the rest of the American league parks combined.

3) PNC Park (Pittsburgh Pirates) - I got to go to PNC field last year and the park really is amazing. Great sight lines for watching the games, a great view of downtown Pittsburgh and the Allageny (sp.?) River and awesome food. Once they get a major league team to play there it will be even better.

4) Skydome/Rogers Centre (Jays Baby) - I know its ugly and it has a stupid name, but it is the home of the Toronto Blue Jays and when you grow up watching a team, getting to go and see the place where your favorite players come and play everyday has a charm that can't be replaced. Its where John Olerud very politely made a run at .400, where Robbie Alomar made No Fear t-shirts the best selling clothing item in the world for boys between the ages of 7 and 12 and where Joe Carter touched em all'.

5) Labatt Park (London, ON) - I figured I should put one non-MLB park on the list. While some might suggest that I am biased because I grew up in London, I would challenge anyone to find a nicer minor league ballpark park. It used to be the home of the London Tigers, the AA affiliate of the Detroit Tigers, but currently only houses local and intercounty games. The field is kept in amazing condition, there is a great view of the downtown London skyline and if you are doing enough steroids you can probably hit a ding dong into the Thames River.

Adios Alex

2009-08-12T14:15:00.000-07:00

On Monday night we saw the Jays trade away the most stylish member of the 2009 team. Alex Rios - http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/AlexisRios2008Season.jpg (honourable mention to Rod Barajas). While the move makes financial sense for the Blue Jays, it is still tough to swallow. The trade is so tough to swallow because of how talented we always hear that Rios is. We saw glimpses of it, and we thought he was starting to put it together after his 2007 season. Whatever is preventing him from producing, it isn't a lack of physical skill or baseball attributes (in MLB 09 the Show for Playstation, he is rated at 90 something overall and that definitely tells you something). For whatever reason he didn't seem to be able to put it together in Toronto (it wasn't because he spent too much time singing autographs). I think that a change of scenery to Chicago will help him produce. Hitting in the same lineup as Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Carlos Quinten and Paul Konerko will take a lot of the pressure of him, as he won't be asked to be a main run producer. And despite his yelling match with that fan in Toronto, playing with AJ Pierzinski will make Rios look like Mother Theresa. Now maybe the Jays can use that payroll flexibility to sign Raul Chavez and Jose Bautista longterm.

Trade Deadline

2009-08-03T15:03:00.000-07:00

Today was the MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline and what I (and all other Jays fans) was surprised by was the move that didn’t happen: our very own smooth pimp general manager J.P Riccardi decided to hang on to Roy Halladay. While the Philadelphia Phillies seemed to be the most logical fit for Halladay, they fell out of the sweepstakes early Wednesday when they acquired Cliff Lee from Cleveland, but what surprised me the most about this years deadline was that Halladay was not perused more aggressively by the Bosox or Yankees. Neither the Yanks or Bosox are particularly thin on starting pitching, but given the kind of difference maker Halladay is, he could have single handedly changed the face of competition in the AL East. If I was either the Yankees or Red Sox, I would have been heavily pursuing Doc. Imagine Boston going into the playoffs with a rotation fronted by Halladay, Josh Beckett, Dice-K and Jon Lester or the Yankees running out Halladay, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlin. Adding Halladay would make either rotation the most dominant in the game. Whichever team that acquired him would have instantly become World Series and AL East favorites for both this year and next as well as provide a striking blow in the on-going rivalry between the two teams. If Boston was still pissed that New York poached Mark Texiera this off season what better way to get payback? If New York is serious about dethroning Boston as reigning division champ and reasserting their dominance what better way then by acquiring one of the games best pitchers? Halladay is one of the only players in baseball who could change the dynamic between the two rival teams in this way. Because these two rivals play in the Jays’ own division they would have had to give up much more in the way of prospects in order to acquire Halladay. However, obtaining a player like Halladay is well worth a Clay Bucholtz or a Phil Hughes or any other combination of high ceiling prospects, especially considering you would have Halladay for at least 2 post seasons and have a good chance to resigning him to a long term deal (the guy just wants to win dammit). Lastly although I know that baseball people will say that it was a mistake to keep Halladay and that his value will never again be this high, I am still happy to see him stay in Toronto. Even if the Jays can’t seem to be able to win with him, he is good enough that he makes the Jays exciting - every fifth day, we get to watch one of the best pitchers in baseball. If he had been traded the only thing worth watching in a Blue Jays game would be Adam Lind and Aaron Hill at bats. So while it may not be the best move for the team long term, the 2009 Blue Jays are a lot more palatable now that I know Roy is still going to pitching every 5th day.