Boston Red Sox Offseason Review

It’s been a big offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a 90 win season, the AL East powerhouse was able to add two superstars (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) to their already formidable lineup. If that wasn’t enough to get Red Sox fans excited, the team also saw their biggest rival come up empty in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and give away their first round pick in next year’s draft (along with $30 million dollars) for a set up man. So while the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez have lots of people talking, Boston’s improvements in 2011 should have more to do with some less publicized moving and shaking than their two big name signings.

There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.

Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.

This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.

Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.