As the Jays spend the better part of the week battling the Rangers (and Canadian interest in the NHL playoffs) down in Texas, we get our first 2011 look at the other player someone was willing to give up in exchange for Vernon Wells; Mike Napoli. Now I’ve been told the common wisdom stating you should avoid tattoos because it will reduce your chance of getting a good job has become outdated, but seeing Napoli struggle to find both playing time and a home has me wondering.
The First question to ask is why Mike Scioscia seems to detest Napoli to the point that the Angels were willing to give up such a productive player while taking on Wells’ $80 million in salary. Yes, he is not a great defensive catcher, but he can play at first or DH, and with Michael Cuddyer manning second base for the Twins, we could be seeing the start of the big-bodied second baseman era. Given that Napoli’s versatility and that the Angels are 18th in the League in OBP and runs scored, it would seem as though he maybe a worthwhile option. That said, the Angels do have options at these positions: Mark Trumbo (even though he’s struggling), Kendrys Morales (even though he’s on the DL), Hank Conger (even though he’s not Jeff Mathis) and Bobby Abreau, so it does make at least some sense that the Angels would let Napoli go. Even if a case can be made that Napoli is a better offensive player than everyone listed above not named Kendrys.
More confusing however, is why the Jays and Rangers made the Napoli trade. From Toronto’s perspective, Napoli would be somewhere between the second and fourth best hitter in their lineup, depending on how much you like Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar (and until Travis Snider breaks out). Sure, that would mean carrying Juan Rivera as a part time player (you probably couldn’t deal him if you wanted to), but Napoli’s bat would still be a welcome addition. Having Napoli take either Rivera or Encarnacion’s share of at bats at DH (while also being able to spell at 1B and C) would mean more production for a Jays’ lineup that seems to “run into” a lot of “hot” pitching. Sabermetrically speaking, Napoli has been god for a 2.7 WAR over the previous three seasons, versus Encarnacion’s 1.9, and Rivera’s 1.0 (the low average is due to injuries and inconsistent play). While Rivera did have a WAR of 3.3 in 2009, he has never in his career posted another WAR above 3, and only once (2006) did he post a plus 2 WAR. Napoli may also see his numbers spike moving from the pitcher friendly Angel Stadium to the homer friendly Ballpark in Arlington (or Rogers Centre, sigh).
As for what the Jays received in the trade, Frank Francisco is a solid (if not underrated) reliever that should help the bullpen. Has posted good strikeout rates along with all the other positive peripheral stats you look for from a reliever. The question isn’t really whether or not Francisco is a good pitcher, but rather did the Jays really need to give up what could be one of their better offensive weapons in order to add to a bullpen that already contains enough serviceable arms? Confusing the situation further are the Rangers motivations for the trade. Why would Texas want to trade Francisco for Napoli given their own pitching issues and unwillingness to play Napoli?
As of today, Napoli has 48 at bats for the Rangers. Fewer than Michael Young(102), Mitch Moreland(74), and Yorvit Torrealba (69), all of whom he is competing with for playing time. That’s not even considering the Rangers’ other first baseman and catcher: Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden, currently on the active roster (really, they have that many). When Josh Hamilton returns from the DL, Napoli’s playing time may decrease even more with Moreland unable to play in the outfield. For all the depth the Rangers have at 1B/C/OF, their pitching is thin. Aside from Darren Oliver and the now injured Neftali Feliz, the Rangers lack reliable bullpen options. It may have served Texas better to keep Francisco in the pen, rather than trade him for another offensive player that will struggle to get more than 300 ABs. Keeping Francisco and instilling him as closer also would have made it easier to move Neftali Feliz (one of the team’s best arms) out of the bullpen to help shore up an equally weak rotation, an idea Rangers brass was toying with in spring training.
Why Mike Napoli seems unable to get anything more than a part time gig is beyond me. Especially considering Adam Kennedy has batted cleanup for a Major League team in the past two weeks. He isn’t as good against right handed pitching as he is against left, but he does have power, a good eye (save his low OBP last year) and the ability to play three positions, one of which is catcher. This is a skill set that I think shouldn’t leave a guy fighting for 300 at bats after being traded twice. Maybe it is the tattoos.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Friday, April 8, 2011
Panic In Boston? A Response to Dave Cameron
One of the most commonly asked questions after a week’s worth of baseball games has been “should Boston be worried?” The odds on World Series favourites have started the season 0-6, unable to eek out a win against even the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yesterday, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs issued his own more statistically based suggestion that Boston may indeed be in trouble . While it is scary to think about climbing out of an 0-6 hole, I’m still not ready to assume Boston is any less likely to be the team they were expected to be eight days ago.
Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East
Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.
No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.
Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East
Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.
No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Bold Faced Prediction for the 2011 MLB Season: Florida Marlins Win the World Series
I admit I’m a week late in writing, but the contrarian inside me couldn’t stand to hear another writer/TV analyst tell me that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. What fun is the beginning of a new season if all you’re hearing is a reaffirmation of the conventional wisdom? Saying Boston is going to win is like saying owning land is a good investment, or that the Strokes like getting drunk. Reasonable and measured. But leave the safe bets to your mutual fund manager; it’s a new baseball season. With that in mind, you heard it here first – The Florida Marlins are going to win their third World Series this year. This is my boldfaced prediction for the 2011 MLB season.
The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.
The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.
Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).
The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.
Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.
This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.
The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.
The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.
Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).
The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.
Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.
This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.
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