You don’t need to be the happiest man in Springfield to admit the Blue Jays future is starting to look pretty bright. The lineup features one of baseball’s best hitters in Jose Bautista. Yunel Escobar, JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie have the potential to become valuable contributors for years to come. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have established themselves as top of the rotation starters. If Travis Snider can’t figure things out, recent history suggests Alex Anthopoulos will be able to trade him for Albert Pujols straight up. Couple this with the fact that Toronto is probably already better than some of this year’s to be determined playoff entrants (AL Central/NL West, I’m looking at you...) and there really is a lot to be excited about. So with all the positives pouring out of camp Blue Jays, there is one thing the team may still be missing if they want to make a playoff push two or three years down the road: another frontline starting pitcher.
According to this year’s Hustle and Heart TV promos, Ricky Romero is the staff ace. This probably has to do with a combination of performance, consistency and service time. Romero is an extremely valuable, top of the rotation major league pitcher (even if this years’ LOB rate of 81.4% suggests he may be a bit lucky). But if you’re more inclined to consider advanced statistics and pure stuff, Brandon Morrow could be viewed as the best pitcher on the team. This year, Morrow is a top twenty pitcher according to xFIP (he may have been last year as well if he had thrown enough innings), he also has ace-calibre stuff and is young enough that he shouldn’t be prone to decline in the next few years. Morrow should be an ace, but as we approach September, we are looking at the second straight year in which his xFIP, K/9 and other periphery statistics don’t seem to be translating into the on field results we expect them to. Some blame the dreaded big inning but I don’t really know what that means. Morrow is young, and turning the corner is not something that would surprise anyone but there is also some reason to believe that he may continue to see results slightly below his true talent level (something called Ricky Nolasco Syndrome). Regardless of whether or not you believe Morrow will make improvements, the need for another frontline starter to accompany Morrow and Romero at the top of the rotation is still something the Blue Jays should consider.
Even with Morrow (in any incarnation) Romero at the top of the rotation, another elite starter is almost necessary to compete in the AL East. The Jays don’t need to look any further than this year’s Red Sox team (who rank just ahead of the Jays in xFIP) to see the problems that arise from a lack of quality starting pitching. Despite having two top of the rotation starters in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the weak underbelly of the Red Sox’s rotation has been exposed (and saved by the BoSox lineup) with the back injury to Clay Buchholz (thats really how you spell BUCHHOLZ!). If you start Andrew Miller enough times, the Yankees are going to gain some ground.
Anecdotal evidence aside, the Blue Jays staff ranks in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.12 and a WAR of 10.2. Unless they plan on slugging their way to the top, improvements need to be made. As frustrating as it is to see lead after lead coughed up by the bullpen, BJ Ryan and every sabermatrician ever born has me doubting that a “proven closer” is the answer to Toronto’s pitching problems. The Jays need better starting pitching. While they do have front of the rotation prospects in the high and low minors, young arms take time to develop (remember Roy Halladay’s first few years?). And like any prospect (or player for that matter), there is also some risk the player may get injured or not live up to their potential. Bringing in a top of the rotation starter would ensure they Jays don’t have to pin their soon to be playoff hopes entirely on one or two young arms the second they get to the big leagues.
Is it possible to contend without three dominant pitchers at the top of a rotation? Sure. The Yankees are doing it; but it’s definitely more difficult. Is it possible that Toronto can solve this problem internally? Yes, but it may be a risky proposition to hang your proverbial hat on Toronto’s current minor league players; especially with Kyle Drabek’s newly developed loss of command and Henderson Alvarez’s inability to miss bats. A top of the rotation starter is one of the rarest commodities in baseball and I admit that acquiring one is no easy task. But the Jays have enough talent and money to make paying the price for a top starter feasible. Whether Toronto looks to finally spend Rogers oft-promised money and acquire an arm via free agency (CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia are both free agents this offseason), or use current minor league position player depth to fill an area of weakness at the major league level, another “outside hire” at the top of the rotation may be needed to put the Jays in a position to compete in the AL East. Whether or not Toronto is ready to compete next year or in 2013, elite starting pitchers don’t grow on trees and one may not be available at moment the Jays are ready to make the jump to certified contending team. That may mean acting sooner rather than later. Acquiring one more starting pitcher might turn what is now a bright future, into an exciting (and hopefully playoff bound) present in Toronto.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Don't Call It a Comeback
So yeah, I’ve been busy over the last few months. But watching the Tea Party storm back onto the Canadian Music scene after years in hibernation (and in Crash Karma), inspired me to continue ranting uncontrollably about my favourite slow moving professional sport.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Why Doesn’t Anyone Like Mike Napoli?
As the Jays spend the better part of the week battling the Rangers (and Canadian interest in the NHL playoffs) down in Texas, we get our first 2011 look at the other player someone was willing to give up in exchange for Vernon Wells; Mike Napoli. Now I’ve been told the common wisdom stating you should avoid tattoos because it will reduce your chance of getting a good job has become outdated, but seeing Napoli struggle to find both playing time and a home has me wondering.
The First question to ask is why Mike Scioscia seems to detest Napoli to the point that the Angels were willing to give up such a productive player while taking on Wells’ $80 million in salary. Yes, he is not a great defensive catcher, but he can play at first or DH, and with Michael Cuddyer manning second base for the Twins, we could be seeing the start of the big-bodied second baseman era. Given that Napoli’s versatility and that the Angels are 18th in the League in OBP and runs scored, it would seem as though he maybe a worthwhile option. That said, the Angels do have options at these positions: Mark Trumbo (even though he’s struggling), Kendrys Morales (even though he’s on the DL), Hank Conger (even though he’s not Jeff Mathis) and Bobby Abreau, so it does make at least some sense that the Angels would let Napoli go. Even if a case can be made that Napoli is a better offensive player than everyone listed above not named Kendrys.
More confusing however, is why the Jays and Rangers made the Napoli trade. From Toronto’s perspective, Napoli would be somewhere between the second and fourth best hitter in their lineup, depending on how much you like Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar (and until Travis Snider breaks out). Sure, that would mean carrying Juan Rivera as a part time player (you probably couldn’t deal him if you wanted to), but Napoli’s bat would still be a welcome addition. Having Napoli take either Rivera or Encarnacion’s share of at bats at DH (while also being able to spell at 1B and C) would mean more production for a Jays’ lineup that seems to “run into” a lot of “hot” pitching. Sabermetrically speaking, Napoli has been god for a 2.7 WAR over the previous three seasons, versus Encarnacion’s 1.9, and Rivera’s 1.0 (the low average is due to injuries and inconsistent play). While Rivera did have a WAR of 3.3 in 2009, he has never in his career posted another WAR above 3, and only once (2006) did he post a plus 2 WAR. Napoli may also see his numbers spike moving from the pitcher friendly Angel Stadium to the homer friendly Ballpark in Arlington (or Rogers Centre, sigh).
As for what the Jays received in the trade, Frank Francisco is a solid (if not underrated) reliever that should help the bullpen. Has posted good strikeout rates along with all the other positive peripheral stats you look for from a reliever. The question isn’t really whether or not Francisco is a good pitcher, but rather did the Jays really need to give up what could be one of their better offensive weapons in order to add to a bullpen that already contains enough serviceable arms? Confusing the situation further are the Rangers motivations for the trade. Why would Texas want to trade Francisco for Napoli given their own pitching issues and unwillingness to play Napoli?
As of today, Napoli has 48 at bats for the Rangers. Fewer than Michael Young(102), Mitch Moreland(74), and Yorvit Torrealba (69), all of whom he is competing with for playing time. That’s not even considering the Rangers’ other first baseman and catcher: Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden, currently on the active roster (really, they have that many). When Josh Hamilton returns from the DL, Napoli’s playing time may decrease even more with Moreland unable to play in the outfield. For all the depth the Rangers have at 1B/C/OF, their pitching is thin. Aside from Darren Oliver and the now injured Neftali Feliz, the Rangers lack reliable bullpen options. It may have served Texas better to keep Francisco in the pen, rather than trade him for another offensive player that will struggle to get more than 300 ABs. Keeping Francisco and instilling him as closer also would have made it easier to move Neftali Feliz (one of the team’s best arms) out of the bullpen to help shore up an equally weak rotation, an idea Rangers brass was toying with in spring training.
Why Mike Napoli seems unable to get anything more than a part time gig is beyond me. Especially considering Adam Kennedy has batted cleanup for a Major League team in the past two weeks. He isn’t as good against right handed pitching as he is against left, but he does have power, a good eye (save his low OBP last year) and the ability to play three positions, one of which is catcher. This is a skill set that I think shouldn’t leave a guy fighting for 300 at bats after being traded twice. Maybe it is the tattoos.
The First question to ask is why Mike Scioscia seems to detest Napoli to the point that the Angels were willing to give up such a productive player while taking on Wells’ $80 million in salary. Yes, he is not a great defensive catcher, but he can play at first or DH, and with Michael Cuddyer manning second base for the Twins, we could be seeing the start of the big-bodied second baseman era. Given that Napoli’s versatility and that the Angels are 18th in the League in OBP and runs scored, it would seem as though he maybe a worthwhile option. That said, the Angels do have options at these positions: Mark Trumbo (even though he’s struggling), Kendrys Morales (even though he’s on the DL), Hank Conger (even though he’s not Jeff Mathis) and Bobby Abreau, so it does make at least some sense that the Angels would let Napoli go. Even if a case can be made that Napoli is a better offensive player than everyone listed above not named Kendrys.
More confusing however, is why the Jays and Rangers made the Napoli trade. From Toronto’s perspective, Napoli would be somewhere between the second and fourth best hitter in their lineup, depending on how much you like Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar (and until Travis Snider breaks out). Sure, that would mean carrying Juan Rivera as a part time player (you probably couldn’t deal him if you wanted to), but Napoli’s bat would still be a welcome addition. Having Napoli take either Rivera or Encarnacion’s share of at bats at DH (while also being able to spell at 1B and C) would mean more production for a Jays’ lineup that seems to “run into” a lot of “hot” pitching. Sabermetrically speaking, Napoli has been god for a 2.7 WAR over the previous three seasons, versus Encarnacion’s 1.9, and Rivera’s 1.0 (the low average is due to injuries and inconsistent play). While Rivera did have a WAR of 3.3 in 2009, he has never in his career posted another WAR above 3, and only once (2006) did he post a plus 2 WAR. Napoli may also see his numbers spike moving from the pitcher friendly Angel Stadium to the homer friendly Ballpark in Arlington (or Rogers Centre, sigh).
As for what the Jays received in the trade, Frank Francisco is a solid (if not underrated) reliever that should help the bullpen. Has posted good strikeout rates along with all the other positive peripheral stats you look for from a reliever. The question isn’t really whether or not Francisco is a good pitcher, but rather did the Jays really need to give up what could be one of their better offensive weapons in order to add to a bullpen that already contains enough serviceable arms? Confusing the situation further are the Rangers motivations for the trade. Why would Texas want to trade Francisco for Napoli given their own pitching issues and unwillingness to play Napoli?
As of today, Napoli has 48 at bats for the Rangers. Fewer than Michael Young(102), Mitch Moreland(74), and Yorvit Torrealba (69), all of whom he is competing with for playing time. That’s not even considering the Rangers’ other first baseman and catcher: Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden, currently on the active roster (really, they have that many). When Josh Hamilton returns from the DL, Napoli’s playing time may decrease even more with Moreland unable to play in the outfield. For all the depth the Rangers have at 1B/C/OF, their pitching is thin. Aside from Darren Oliver and the now injured Neftali Feliz, the Rangers lack reliable bullpen options. It may have served Texas better to keep Francisco in the pen, rather than trade him for another offensive player that will struggle to get more than 300 ABs. Keeping Francisco and instilling him as closer also would have made it easier to move Neftali Feliz (one of the team’s best arms) out of the bullpen to help shore up an equally weak rotation, an idea Rangers brass was toying with in spring training.
Why Mike Napoli seems unable to get anything more than a part time gig is beyond me. Especially considering Adam Kennedy has batted cleanup for a Major League team in the past two weeks. He isn’t as good against right handed pitching as he is against left, but he does have power, a good eye (save his low OBP last year) and the ability to play three positions, one of which is catcher. This is a skill set that I think shouldn’t leave a guy fighting for 300 at bats after being traded twice. Maybe it is the tattoos.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Panic In Boston? A Response to Dave Cameron
One of the most commonly asked questions after a week’s worth of baseball games has been “should Boston be worried?” The odds on World Series favourites have started the season 0-6, unable to eek out a win against even the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yesterday, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs issued his own more statistically based suggestion that Boston may indeed be in trouble . While it is scary to think about climbing out of an 0-6 hole, I’m still not ready to assume Boston is any less likely to be the team they were expected to be eight days ago.
Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East
Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.
No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.
Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East
Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.
No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Bold Faced Prediction for the 2011 MLB Season: Florida Marlins Win the World Series
I admit I’m a week late in writing, but the contrarian inside me couldn’t stand to hear another writer/TV analyst tell me that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. What fun is the beginning of a new season if all you’re hearing is a reaffirmation of the conventional wisdom? Saying Boston is going to win is like saying owning land is a good investment, or that the Strokes like getting drunk. Reasonable and measured. But leave the safe bets to your mutual fund manager; it’s a new baseball season. With that in mind, you heard it here first – The Florida Marlins are going to win their third World Series this year. This is my boldfaced prediction for the 2011 MLB season.
The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.
The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.
Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).
The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.
Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.
This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.
The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.
The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.
Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).
The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.
Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.
This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Jays Spring Training Observations
Jays Spring Training Notes
Brett Lawrie
Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.
Pitching Injuries
Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.
Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment
While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.
Brett Lawrie
Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.
Pitching Injuries
Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.
Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment
While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Boston Red Sox Offseason Review
It’s been a big offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a 90 win season, the AL East powerhouse was able to add two superstars (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) to their already formidable lineup. If that wasn’t enough to get Red Sox fans excited, the team also saw their biggest rival come up empty in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and give away their first round pick in next year’s draft (along with $30 million dollars) for a set up man. So while the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez have lots of people talking, Boston’s improvements in 2011 should have more to do with some less publicized moving and shaking than their two big name signings.
There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.
Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.
This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.
Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.
There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.
Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.
This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.
Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.
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