Payroll Disparities and the Death of Moneyball

Recently Joe Posnanski wrote an article for Sports Illustrated proclaiming that Moneyball has died - not by virtue of its ineffectiveness, but rather because its principles have been absorbed by larger market teams, which once again leaves small market teams at a disadvantage. He points to how larger market teams started valuing OBP and walks just as much as Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s and that these small market teams are once again left out in the cold looking for a way to compete against the Wal-marts of professional baseball. While this once again sounds like discouraging news for any team not based in New York or Los Angeles, the news isn’t all bad. Spending money does not guarantee you anything in baseball and teams that invest reasonably (in both payroll or organizational development) still do have a chance at making it to the big dance. For all the success of the major market teams, there have also been many failures. The New York Yankees continually spend at least double to that of most teams in the way of payroll yet have not won a World Series since 2000. While many would suggest that the Yanks are still able to field competitive teams and make the playoffs, when you are spending 70 million dollars more than the next closest team (and 188 million more than the Florida Marlins), is that really any excuse or consolation? If it was my 209 million dollars (Yankees ‘09 payroll) I would have fielded three different MLB teams with 70 million dollar payrolls and taken my chances that way. Of 2009’s top 10 spenders the Mets, Cubs, Mariners, Astros and (potentially) Tigers are all at risk of not making the playoffs. Many smaller and mid market teams have been able to build winners despite not being able to spend like the big boys: the Cardinals, Rays, Rockies, Twins, Brewers and Indians have continually made playoff runs in the last few years despite limited payrolls. While Posnanski might suggest that these teams have the advantage of time – being able to tolerate losing at certain points while their young players develop or the roster is rebuilt; big spending teams lose at almost the same clip. The Yankees, Tigers and Mets all missed the playoffs last year despite all ranking in the top 5 in spending. The Giants, Astros and Mariners are all big spenders that have continually failed to make the playoffs over the last 5 years. Since we inked BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett, the Jays have continued to spend significant amounts of money without making the playoffs. J.P. might want to complain about how much the Yankees and Boston spend but you know who doesn’t? 2008 American League Champion Tampa Bay. It would be wrong to suggest that there is no correlation between spending money and being competitive, spending does increase your chances of winning, but all is not lost. Teams with strong scouting/drafting and player development programs (the Cardinals turn seemingly every castoff pitcher into gold; or, productive outfielders in the case of Rick Ankiel) still have a chance at making the playoffs. What is the fun in rooting for Wal-mart anyway?