NO ONE saw this coming. When I received a message asking if I’d heard about Vernon Wells, I was confused as to what it meant. Did he get caught using PEDs? Did his wrist flare up and the Jays had to put him on the shelf already? Did he go on the bereavement list because his golden retriever died? I didn’t know why Vernon Wells was suddenly newsworthy, but the idea of him being traded seemed almost impossible. Now we’ve all heard what a horrible deal this is for the Angels and how Alex Anthopoulos is going to win executive of the year (as he should), but there was one element to the trade that I was not expecting. To me, the most surprising part of the Vernon Wells trade is how many people began suggesting the Jays use the money the team saved by selling its magic beans to the Angels on signing Jose Bautista long term.
Jose Bautista was without a doubt Toronto’s best offensive player in 2010, but coming off a career year is no time to sign a player to a long-term contract. If you don’t believe me just ask the Leafs (we can start with Jason Blake, but it’s a long list). The Jose Bautista scenario can play out several ways in 2011: He can regress to his career norms; he can level off but remain productive (something in 25-30 home run range, with corresponding drops in OBP and OPS would be nice); he can get injured; or he can repeat his 2010 performance. If the Jays decide not to negotiate a contract before the season, only if he repeats his 2010 (probably the most unlikely of the situations mentioned above) will they be in a worse position should they choose to negotiate with him after/ later on in the season.
On top of these risks, signing a player long-term is not the modus operandi for Toronto’s current front office team. And that’s a good thing. If you’re a Jays fan, what’s exciting about the Vernon Wells trade is how it will allow the team flexibility to add the pieces they need via free agency or trade when they are ready to contend. Tying up money in Jose Bautista right now could be needlessly spending while the team continues it’s rebuilding. If he is productive again this year, it may benefit the Jays to trade him midseason for prospects, or let him leave via-free agency to collect draft picks. Jose’s time may be now, but it isn’t Toronto’s just yet.
We also need to remember that Jose Bautista is not a spring chicken. He will play this season at age 30 and is two years younger than the star outfielder we just traded to the Angels. Coincidentally, if you read any analysis about the Wells trade, it will no doubt bring up the fact that outfielders in their mid-30s are very susceptible to steep decline, both offensively and defensively. After just getting released from the Wells albatross, the Jays should be thinking long and hard before committing big dollars to a player that will play the first year of his new contract at age 31.
The Vernon Wells trade can mean a lot of things for the Blue Jays moving forward, but one thing that it shouldn’t mean, is signing Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract extension before the 2011 season. Right now, Jose Bautista is in the best position he will ever be to negotiate with the smallest track record he will ever have. Does this mean Jose Bautista is going to be a worthless player? No, but I do think that no one is really sure what kind of player he is going to be in the next few years right now. And if what he has asked for in arbitration is any indication ($10.5 million), he won’t be signing for peanuts. I’m not saying the Jays necessarily need to say goodbye to their cleanup hitter, but I think they should relax, think about it, and not make their final decision just yet.
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