NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East is beginning to look a lot like the ultra competitive American League East – four teams that should win more than they lose and one team you’d rather not think about. Washington (Gio Gonzalez) and Miami (Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle) both made significant offseason acquisitions, but until I know that Josh Johnson in Miami and Ryan Zimmerman in Washington, can stay off the DL, I am hesitant to think they can overtake Philadelphia or Atlanta. The Phillies took the NL East crown once again last year, despite a poor season from Ryan Howard and the usual time lost to injury by Chase Utley. Going into 2012, Howard and Utley will begin the season on the disabled list, leaving the Philadelphia offence without two of its better hitters. While the aging roster and declining offensive production makes it feel like the Phillies should be at the end of their rope, until one of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels are sidelined with a major injury, it’s hard to be against the Phills. I’ve done it before and learned my lesson, so going into 2012 I’m picking the Phillies to once again win the NL East.
NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
It has not been a good spring for the Cincinnati Reds. New closer Ryan Madson is out for the season and new ace Mat Latos is suffering from a strained calf, although this injury may be minor. While the Reds have signalled all in by trading for Latos and Sean Marshall, there are too many question marks for me to pick them as division winners. Outside of Latos, the effectiveness of Johhny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake is somewhat of an unknown. Can Scott Rolen stay healthy? What kind of season is Zack Cozart going to have? St. Louis should field a competitive team, but their offence, while potentially dangerous, is also pretty rickety and vulnerable to injury; Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal and David Freese have all lost significant time to injuries over the last two years. I think the Milwaukee Brewers are in a position to once again win the NL Central. While the offence did take a hit, Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel should be able to replace a fair bit of the production lost by Prince Fielder’s defection. Signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop should be a major defensive upgrade over Yuni Betancourt and I expect an even better season from Zack Greinke (2.56 xFIP verses 3.83 ERA), who pitched through some bad luck in 2011. Combined with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum the Brewers’ rotation posted the 2nd best starters’ xFIP (3.65) in the National League last year, while the bullpen posted an xFIP of 3.43, also good for second best. The NL Central is still the Brewers’ to lose.
NL West – Arizona Diamondbacks
For me, the NL West appears to be one of the most open divisions in baseball heading into 2012. For a team that has arguably the best position player and pitcher in the league in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the LA Dodgers really don’t have much else. The Rockies, now with more Michael Cuddyer, are poised for another middle of the road finish, unless some of their young pitchers (Alex White, Drew Pomeranz) take major strides very quickly. The Arizona Diamondbacks, last year’s division champs, return a roster primarily intact, with the addition of Trevor Cahill to the rotation. While Ian Kennedy (3.50 xFIP, 2.88 ERA) and Josh Collmenter may regress, paired with Daniel Hudson and Cahill, Arizona fields a decent enough starting rotation. Outside of Justin Upton and Miguel Montero, their offense is nothing special, but their complimentary pieces (Jason Kubel, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young, and Gerardo Perra) are probably better than anything the rest of the division is trotting out there. The song remains the same in San Francisco, where the pitching will be there, it’s just a question of how much offense the Giants’ can provide. Until San Fran shows that they are committed to playing Brandon Belt fulltime, it’s hard to get behind an offense that features, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and not much else. I’ll take the D-backs by a hair.
NL Wildcard – Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While most of the Cards’ key offensive pieces are major injury risks, St Louis should be able to hit enough to stay in contention. If these players go down for an extended period of time, the Cardinals’’ young arms (Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jason Motte), along with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia, will be counted on to keep them competitive. I am much higher on the Braves than many (Eric Karabell and Mark Simon of Baseball Today, both projected Miami to finish ahead of Atlanta) heading into 2012. Health is a major issue for the Braves. Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Chipper Jones are all key contributors with significant health issues heading into the season. With that said, the Braves are a deep team. Their pitching depth is no secret. Behind Hanson and Jurrjens, they have Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy, two pitchers who also had very successful 2011 seasons. They also have young arms on the way, in the form of Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. The lineup is also a better than most people are giving them credit for. Aside from Jones and Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Martin Prado all have the ability to be above average offensive players. Their bullpen is equally deep. Even if things go wrong, I think the Braves will find their way into the playoffs. Until Josh Johnson makes twenty starts for Miami, in think they are still on the outside looking in.
NL Rookie of the Year – Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
I can’t tell you who the 2012 NL ROY will be, but I can say that there is a very good chance that they have come out of the Cincinnati Reds farm system. It’s a wide open race. While Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yonder Alonso are all candidates, I’ll take Alonso based on the fact that playing for a non-contender means he should get the at bats to work through any growing pains and boost his counting stats (which worked out pretty well for Mark Trumbo last year).
NL MVP – Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Stanton is a beast that is ready to go off. He hit 34 ding dongs last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 50 this year. There may be better all around players in the NL (Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton may be more deserving), but if Stanton has a Jose Bautista like offensive year, the votes will likely go to him. Plus, he should get a tonne of RBIs hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
