Just Go For It

It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.

$214 Million Dollars of Upgrades

With almost a week passing since Prince Fielder singed with the Detroit Tigers, I thought I would do the disservice of writing another blog post about the hefty slugger’s move to the Motor City. While much has already been made about the Tigers’ new 500 pound corner infield, I think it’s important to remember that even though Mike Ilitch’s heart was in the right place, spending big money on Prince Fielder isn’t necessarily the best path to remaining competitive and winning championships for the Tigers given their current roster.

Mike Ilitch spent his hard earned pizza empire millions (of which I have personally contributed via the $5 Hot n’ Ready) with the hope that his Detroit Tigers are able to win a championship in the next few years. While it’s easy to appreciate an owner spending big money to bring home a World Series, I’m not sure if the Tigers’ play for Prince was the best way to do so. Defensively, there are major questions about Miguel Cabrera playing anywhere in the field, be it third base, left field or first base. There are bigger questions if Fielder, another subpar defender, is also starting somewhere other than designated hitter. The team’s pitching staff also has some issues of its own. Can Doug Fister replicate his 2011 outside of Safeco Field? What kind of season can erratic but talented Max Scherzer have? Both Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde had career years in 2011, but what will happen if they regress (which is almost guaranteed in Valverde’s case) to their career norms? Will signing Octavio Dotel really improve the bullpen? On the offensive side of things, can Austin Jackson, Delmon Young and whoever is playing 2B and 3B get on base and be league average offensive players? And what if, as some writers have suggested (like Getting Blanked’s Travis Reitsma), that Fielder merely replaces the production of Victor Martinez, instead of improving on it?

There are a lot of ways to spend $214 million dollars (or in my case, 214 dollars), and given how the Tigers roster is currently constructed, the money may have been better used to upgrade several problem areas. Would the Tigers not have looked better signing Jose Reyes and moving Jhonny Peralta to third base? What if they traded a package of players (like prospect Jacob Turner) for a young starter like Michael Pineda, Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez? They could have upgraded their outfield by trading for Carlos Quentin. If they didn’t want to part with prospects they could have gone after CJ Wilson or Edwin Jackson and they could have shored up the bullpen by signing Ryan Madson, a far superior reliever to Jose Valverde, and one who ended up taking a one year $8.5 million dollar deal. Based on the contracts Wilson, Reyes and Madson signed this offseason, the Tigers could have inked all three (they posted a combined WAR of 13.8 according to Fangraphs) for less money than it cost to sign Prince Fielder (5.5 WAR).

This is not to say any of the players mentioned above wanted to sign with the Tigers, or that they don’t come with risks and problems of their own. It is meant to say that if winning now was indeed priority number one for Detroit this offseason, there were options other than Fielder that should have been examined. Options that may have been more effective and efficient than giving out the fourth largest contract in baseball history to a player with question marks of his own (defence, how he will age given his weight). Especially knowing the Tigers’ roster already has a surplus of viable 1B and DH options.

Having an owner that is committed to winning is a great thing and signing Prince Fielder is certainly symbolic of that commitment. But for a Tigers’ team that has many holes to fill and $214 million dollars to fill them, signing Fielder may not have been the best way to deploy these resources.

Why No Interest in Prince San Fran?

For all the action, (or lack thereof) in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, one team that has not shown interest (at least publicly) are the San Francisco Giants. Why San Fran hasn’t been linked to the husky slugger is a little bit confusing to me. With Fielder, the Giants would improve a punchless lineup that has prevented them from becoming an elite team and ensure that their talented pitching staff isn’t wasted on a team fighting just to get into the playoffs.


The Giants’ offensive issues were on full display this year as they surrendered their NL West division crown to the Diamondbacks. Admittedly, the team was without Buster Posey for most of the year, but even a current Giants’ lineup that includes Posey is still average at best. While Posey is an elite player, some of his value is positional. Posey will be a good hitter, but he will not be putting up Mike Piazza-like numbers in the middle of a line-up anytime soon. Like Posey, Brandon Belt is another potential future star and projects to be a talented hitter, but given his age and inexperience, counting on him to be the anchor in the middle of the lineup may be a bit premature. And that also assumes that one of Brian Sabean or Bruce Bochy actually decides to give the poor guy the playing time he deserves. In either case, the Giants are still in need of a power bat to lengthen the middle of their lineup.
Fielder is fairly close to being a complete offensive player. He is very consistent, since his rookie year, he hasn’t hit any less than 28 HR and has averaged 38. His gets on base (.390 career OBP) and hits for power (.540 career slugging percentage). If 2011 is any indication, his performance against left handed pitching (.822 OPS) is also turning into a non-issue as well. A middle of the order that includes Fielder, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt (Belt would have to move to the outfield to accommodate Fielder) sounds a lot better than the Giants’ teams of 2010 and 2011 that were forced to bat Aubrey Huff and Bengie Molina cleanup (true story).


Fielder doesn’t come without his problems. He is not a good defensive player, but he is remember, a first baseman and if there is anywhere on the diamond you can afford to field a below average defender, it’s first base. And let’s be honest, the Giants don’t really balk at the idea of starting below average defensive players these days (Aubrey Huff, Orlando Cabrera). Scott Boras has also made it know that Fielder will come with hefty price tag. The rumour was that Fielder is aiming to sign a contract similar to Mark Tiexeria and Adrian Gonzalez, but with the Cubs acquiring Anthony Rizzo, big market suitors for Prince appear to be waning. Whatever Fielder’s price will be, San Francisco is a big market team ($116 million dollar payroll last year) and have only $7 million in payroll commitments beyond 2013. Yes, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are due for big raises in the near future, but the Giants also have Posey and Belt under club control until 2017, and they should be able to allocate enough of their 120 million payroll to Fielder.


The Giants already have one of the rarest things in baseball: elite starting pitching. Aside from the Phillies (and maybe the Angels depending on what you think of their top four), San Francisco has the best starting rotation in the game. Adding Fielder to a lineup that already includes young stars like Posey, Belt and Pablo Sandoval would help prevent the anaemic Giants’ offence from struggling the way it did in 2012. With the Dodger’s ownership in limbo,and questions surrounding the Diamondbacks and Rockies, there is no clear powerhouse in the National League West. The division is ripe for the taking. Signing Fielder to a long term contract is definitely a risky proposition, but given his record of past performance, the Giants payroll flexibility relative to smaller market teams and their current roster composition, it may be a risk worth taking for a team he could transform from playoff contender to World Series favourite.