Earlier today, the Yankees and Pirates finalized a trade that sent AJ Burnett and cash (the latter almost goes without saying) to Pittsburgh for two low level (and apparently low ceiling) minor leaguers. Even before the trade was finalized, there has been a lot of talk about how this trade could be a win for Pittsburgh (Keith Law, Eric Karabell, Eric Seidman). A move to the weaker National League, getting out of a bandbox home ballpark, and a bit of bad luck over the past two years (3.86 xFIP last year) has these analysts suggesting that Burnett can be a valuable pitcher over the remaining two years of his contract. Now, it might be contrarian in me, or maybe it’s the spiteful Blue Jays fan, but here are a few reasons the trade doesn’t make as much sense to me.
As much as AJ Burnett’s statistics over the last few years could have been attributed to some bad luck, some of his periphery statistics (at least in the interpretation of this non-sabermatrician) have been trending in the wrong direction. Since joining the Yankees, Burnett’s walk rates (4.22, 3.76, 3.92) have been higher than any season in his career since 2001. Similarly, his strikeout rate, has been trending in the wrong direction. With the Blue Jays in 2007 and 2008 AJ averaged K rates of 9.56 and 9.39, since joining the Yankees, that rate dropped to 8.18 last year while he posted a 6.99 k/9 rate in 2010. Burnett has also started to lose a tick of velocity on his fastball which averaged 92.7 mph in 2011 after averaging at least 94.2 mph through 2009. AJ Burnett will also pitch this year at age 35, and it isn’t unheard of to see power pitchers decline quickly, when they start to lose their stuff. Even in a best case scenario, a gradual the decline still appears to be already underway for everyone’s favourite enigma.
Suggestions that Burnett will thrive away from Yankee Stadium could be overblown, as remember, he did post some of his best seasons in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. His declining results could be a combination of age, more walks and fewer strikeouts. Burnett’s inability to handle a major media market and thus his ability to rebound from it, may also be overblown. Stories and accusations about Burnett’s inconsist performance have been following him around throughout his time with the small market Marlins and Blue Jays (in terms of media coverage) and not just with the Yankees.
Beyond the concerns listed above, acquiring Burnett seems to make little sense for a Pirates team that is still at least 2 years away from contention in the NL Central. Even if Burnett is a 2.5 win (above replacement) pitcher over the next two years, this is most likely the difference between fielding 74 win team and fielding a 77 win team. The 13 million dollars the Pirates committed to Burnett could have been better spent in the amateur draft (although this has become more difficult with the new CBA), or signing/trading for a player that can help the team when they are ready to contend again in a few years. Trading Burnett for anything of value could also prove to be difficult given his inability (or at least perceived inability) to pitch in the AL East and his reluctance to move to the west coast (he vetoed an earlier trade that would have sent him to the Angels).
Acquiring AJ Burnett is by no means the worst trade made this offseason, and there are definitely some reasons to suggest it could work out for the Bucs. That said, the little argumentative voice inside me says this trade may not be the steal it appears to be.
