What Could Go Wrong: 2012 Seattle Mariners

Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Seattle Mariners, that much, everybody knows. But what if things aren’t on their way to improving like we think they are? This weeks’ absolutely worst case scenario looks at the Seattle Mariners.

If anyone doubted Seattle’s commitment to rebuilding, the January trade of Michael Pineda to New York should leave no doubt that this team is not trying to win anything in 2012, and playing in a division that includes the Rangers and Angels, means they really shouldn’t be. Because Seattle isn’t expecting to contend in 2012, the only thing that could really hinder the team this year is a lack of development by players counted on to be cornerstones of the Mariners’ rebuild. Seattle is rich in pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), and while the team is not devoid of position player depth (Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez), they do lack projectable, high upside, middle of the order bats outside of Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

This January, the Mariners sent Michael Pineda, a top of the rotation talent with a solid rookie season already under his belt, to the Yankees with the idea that they could build their offense around Jesus Montero. While he does have the ability to become a middle of the order bat, there are some unanswered questions in his game. By some accounts, Montero appeared bored last year in the minor leagues (he slugged under .500 for the first time since 2008), and playing for a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily inspire focus. No one outside the clubhouse (like a random Canadian baseball fan taken to blogging...) really knows the extent of the problems, but if Montero does have issues related to focus or motivation, these problems may follow him to a team that wins 70 games for the next couple years.

There is also the issue of Montero’s ability to develop as a power hitter. By all accounts, Montero is a strong kid with power to all fields. If, for some reason however, that power doesn’t translate at Safeco Field, where Mariners brass are banking he will show power to the right field(the only place power hitters can exploit in Seattle), his on-base and contact skills may not be worth the price Seattle paid to acquire him. There is also some concern from scouts who believe that Montero‘s defence is not good enough to have him stick at catcher in the major leagues. A version of Montero that is used primarily as a DH and isn’t able to produce middle of the order power numbers will definitely lead to more questions than answers for Seattle over the next few years.

The Mariners’ other power bat of the future, Justin Smoak, has also failed to live up to the expectations that made him the centrepiece of the Cliff Lee trade two years ago. Smoak is still only twenty five years old and has suffered a rash of injuries and personal setbacks (he lost his father last season), that suggest it is too early to write him off yet. With this in mind, his performance since arriving in the big leagues in 2010 has not been stellar. In 886, plate appearances – not the smallest of sample sizes, he has posted a slash line of .227/.318/.385.

The Mariners have young pitching to spare. It’s why they traded Michael Pineda, and it’s why they can absorb the blow if someone like Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen doesn’t pan out as they hoped. 2012 won’t be Seattle’s year, but if Justin Smoak or Jesus Montero aren’t able to develop into middle of the order power bats the team can pair with Dustin Ackley (who needs to avoid a sophomore slump of his own), the team may need to re-evaluate and consider trading another arm (maybe eve Felix Hernandez) and another couple years of losing before they are once again competitive in the AL West.

What Could Go Wrong: Atlanta Braves

If I’ve learned anything from Fox News, it’s that sensationalism plays big. I’ve also learned that nothing gets people’s attention better than worst case scenarios. The kind of coverage that screams loudly that something COULD happen, however unlikely it may be. So in the spirit of Fox News and in liu of a measured analysis (which most spring previews at least try for), I thought I would change it up by over-reacting and looking at an everything-goes- wrong, worst case scenario for a few teams around the Major Leagues. First on the docket, the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves were a playoff team up until the last day of the regular season, and they come into 2012 with the roster primarily intact. A lot of things didn’t break right for Atlanta in 2011, but the 2012 season also brings with it some unanswered questions, namely, can the team stay healthy enough to compete.

In 2011, Jason Heyward’s sophomore season was plagued by some combination of injuries and underperformance. Now while there is reason to believe that a healthy Jayson Heyward can build on his 2010 rookie season, there are questions as to whether or not he will stay healthy, as Heyward appears to be building a reputation as injury prone. Without Heyward, the heart of Atlanta’s order is overly reliant on the aging Chipper Jones, strikeout machine Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann. Entering the twilight of his career, Jones’ production has begun to fall off, and McCann, who is quietly putting together a great career of his own (he’s slugged at least .450 every year since ‘06), will only play 120-130 games a year to stay fresh and avoid wear and tear. Between Heyward, Jones and McCann, the Braves will need things to break right to ensure their middle of the order bats stay on the field for the majority of the year. If they don’t, it will get pretty frustrating watching Dan Uggla strikeout in 25% of his at bats.

While the lineup contains question marks, the biggest uncertainties for the Braves come from the pitching staff. On the surface, the Braves have a loaded staff, with more reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. But aside from their depth, Atlanta could face some obstacles. Ace Tommy Hanson‘s torn rotator cuff and seemingly endless DL stints are concerning. Already sidelined briefly this spring with a concussion, Hanson has only started over 22 games once in the last 3 seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees limited action this year. Number two starter Tim Hudson is facing concerns of his own, as he turns 38 this summer and attempts to come back from off season back surgery. Combine Hudson and Hanson’s potential to miss time with All-Star Jair Jurrjens potential to regress (his xFIP was over a run higher than his ERA in 2011), and Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland, the Braves’ rotation could end up thinner than it appears in 2012.

When it comes to the back end of the bullpen, no one was better than Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. The downside however, is that almost no one pitched as many innings as Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Freddi Gonzalez’s usage of the duo was heavily criticized he but he could very well be run out of town if they are unable to repeat their rookie performances, or even worse, blow out their arms. Let’s hope Gonazalez doesn’t turn into Dusty Baker version 2.0.

So there you have it, an everything that could possibly go wrong outlook on the Atlanta Braves. Not a realistic, thorough, or measured assessment (that would include things like Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn and the ability of Vizcaino and Teheran to step into the rotation), but one that was fast, quick and might leave you more worried than you should be. Kind of like how you feel after watching Fox News.