I admit I’m a week late in writing, but the contrarian inside me couldn’t stand to hear another writer/TV analyst tell me that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. What fun is the beginning of a new season if all you’re hearing is a reaffirmation of the conventional wisdom? Saying Boston is going to win is like saying owning land is a good investment, or that the Strokes like getting drunk. Reasonable and measured. But leave the safe bets to your mutual fund manager; it’s a new baseball season. With that in mind, you heard it here first – The Florida Marlins are going to win their third World Series this year. This is my boldfaced prediction for the 2011 MLB season.
The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.
The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.
Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).
The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.
Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.
This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
Jays Spring Training Observations
Jays Spring Training Notes
Brett Lawrie
Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.
Pitching Injuries
Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.
Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment
While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.
Brett Lawrie
Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.
Pitching Injuries
Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.
Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment
While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Boston Red Sox Offseason Review
It’s been a big offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a 90 win season, the AL East powerhouse was able to add two superstars (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) to their already formidable lineup. If that wasn’t enough to get Red Sox fans excited, the team also saw their biggest rival come up empty in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and give away their first round pick in next year’s draft (along with $30 million dollars) for a set up man. So while the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez have lots of people talking, Boston’s improvements in 2011 should have more to do with some less publicized moving and shaking than their two big name signings.
There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.
Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.
This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.
Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.
There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.
Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.
This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.
Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Albatross II?: What the Jays Shouldn't Do Now That Vernon is Gone
NO ONE saw this coming. When I received a message asking if I’d heard about Vernon Wells, I was confused as to what it meant. Did he get caught using PEDs? Did his wrist flare up and the Jays had to put him on the shelf already? Did he go on the bereavement list because his golden retriever died? I didn’t know why Vernon Wells was suddenly newsworthy, but the idea of him being traded seemed almost impossible. Now we’ve all heard what a horrible deal this is for the Angels and how Alex Anthopoulos is going to win executive of the year (as he should), but there was one element to the trade that I was not expecting. To me, the most surprising part of the Vernon Wells trade is how many people began suggesting the Jays use the money the team saved by selling its magic beans to the Angels on signing Jose Bautista long term.
Jose Bautista was without a doubt Toronto’s best offensive player in 2010, but coming off a career year is no time to sign a player to a long-term contract. If you don’t believe me just ask the Leafs (we can start with Jason Blake, but it’s a long list). The Jose Bautista scenario can play out several ways in 2011: He can regress to his career norms; he can level off but remain productive (something in 25-30 home run range, with corresponding drops in OBP and OPS would be nice); he can get injured; or he can repeat his 2010 performance. If the Jays decide not to negotiate a contract before the season, only if he repeats his 2010 (probably the most unlikely of the situations mentioned above) will they be in a worse position should they choose to negotiate with him after/ later on in the season.
On top of these risks, signing a player long-term is not the modus operandi for Toronto’s current front office team. And that’s a good thing. If you’re a Jays fan, what’s exciting about the Vernon Wells trade is how it will allow the team flexibility to add the pieces they need via free agency or trade when they are ready to contend. Tying up money in Jose Bautista right now could be needlessly spending while the team continues it’s rebuilding. If he is productive again this year, it may benefit the Jays to trade him midseason for prospects, or let him leave via-free agency to collect draft picks. Jose’s time may be now, but it isn’t Toronto’s just yet.
We also need to remember that Jose Bautista is not a spring chicken. He will play this season at age 30 and is two years younger than the star outfielder we just traded to the Angels. Coincidentally, if you read any analysis about the Wells trade, it will no doubt bring up the fact that outfielders in their mid-30s are very susceptible to steep decline, both offensively and defensively. After just getting released from the Wells albatross, the Jays should be thinking long and hard before committing big dollars to a player that will play the first year of his new contract at age 31.
The Vernon Wells trade can mean a lot of things for the Blue Jays moving forward, but one thing that it shouldn’t mean, is signing Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract extension before the 2011 season. Right now, Jose Bautista is in the best position he will ever be to negotiate with the smallest track record he will ever have. Does this mean Jose Bautista is going to be a worthless player? No, but I do think that no one is really sure what kind of player he is going to be in the next few years right now. And if what he has asked for in arbitration is any indication ($10.5 million), he won’t be signing for peanuts. I’m not saying the Jays necessarily need to say goodbye to their cleanup hitter, but I think they should relax, think about it, and not make their final decision just yet.
Jose Bautista was without a doubt Toronto’s best offensive player in 2010, but coming off a career year is no time to sign a player to a long-term contract. If you don’t believe me just ask the Leafs (we can start with Jason Blake, but it’s a long list). The Jose Bautista scenario can play out several ways in 2011: He can regress to his career norms; he can level off but remain productive (something in 25-30 home run range, with corresponding drops in OBP and OPS would be nice); he can get injured; or he can repeat his 2010 performance. If the Jays decide not to negotiate a contract before the season, only if he repeats his 2010 (probably the most unlikely of the situations mentioned above) will they be in a worse position should they choose to negotiate with him after/ later on in the season.
On top of these risks, signing a player long-term is not the modus operandi for Toronto’s current front office team. And that’s a good thing. If you’re a Jays fan, what’s exciting about the Vernon Wells trade is how it will allow the team flexibility to add the pieces they need via free agency or trade when they are ready to contend. Tying up money in Jose Bautista right now could be needlessly spending while the team continues it’s rebuilding. If he is productive again this year, it may benefit the Jays to trade him midseason for prospects, or let him leave via-free agency to collect draft picks. Jose’s time may be now, but it isn’t Toronto’s just yet.
We also need to remember that Jose Bautista is not a spring chicken. He will play this season at age 30 and is two years younger than the star outfielder we just traded to the Angels. Coincidentally, if you read any analysis about the Wells trade, it will no doubt bring up the fact that outfielders in their mid-30s are very susceptible to steep decline, both offensively and defensively. After just getting released from the Wells albatross, the Jays should be thinking long and hard before committing big dollars to a player that will play the first year of his new contract at age 31.
The Vernon Wells trade can mean a lot of things for the Blue Jays moving forward, but one thing that it shouldn’t mean, is signing Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract extension before the 2011 season. Right now, Jose Bautista is in the best position he will ever be to negotiate with the smallest track record he will ever have. Does this mean Jose Bautista is going to be a worthless player? No, but I do think that no one is really sure what kind of player he is going to be in the next few years right now. And if what he has asked for in arbitration is any indication ($10.5 million), he won’t be signing for peanuts. I’m not saying the Jays necessarily need to say goodbye to their cleanup hitter, but I think they should relax, think about it, and not make their final decision just yet.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
2010 MLB Awards
The baseball Oscars are here. During the next two weeks, baseball will hand out its 2010 hardware. But does anybody really want to hear another set of picks for the MVP and CY Young winners? Do we need another set of arguments outlining why the voters got it wrong (DEREK JETER) in handing out Gold Gloves? So, in lieu of handicapping the major awards, I have put together a list of alternative awards and award winners for 2010 so we can acknowledge some of the more unappreciated accomplishments, feats and moments of the 2010 season.
Biggest “I Told You So” Team: Seattle Mariners
After coming off an 85 win season and trading for Cliff Lee, the Seattle Mariners thought they were finally contenders again in the AL West. But despite plenty of offseason buzz, every sportswriter in the country was red flagging this team. The rotation behind Lee and Felix Hernandez was susceptible and unproven. Adrian Beltre and Russell Branyan were gone. This meant an already weak offense would be getting weaker and that was if Milton Bradley (acquired from the Cubs) could finally put it together. Needless to say, none of this worked out and Seattle will be drafting second next June.
Most Disappointing Free Agent Signing: Rich Harden.
Texas enjoyed last year’s biggest free agent bargain in Vladdy Guerrero, but the value gained in the Guerrero signing might have been cancelled out by the loss sustained in the Harden signing. Paying $6.5 million dollars for a 5.68 ERA and 5 wins is something only the Yankees can afford to do. Luckily it was only a one year contract.
Most Impressive Season Played With a Sports Hernia: Jose Bautista.
Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres.
I still don’t completely believe that this team won 90 games this year. Now Boston fans will have to wait until July to acquire Adrian Gonzalez.
Biggest Trend That Didn’t Pan Out: Strong Defensive Teams.
Last offseason, defence was a hot commodity. Many teams (Boston and Seattle) based their free agent and trade acquisitions (Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Casey Kotchman, Jack Wilson) on defensive efficiency, assuring their fans they would be competitive through run prevention. The value of defence should not be undermined, but it turns out you still need to pitch and hit. I don’t know who watched the World Series but the San Francisco Giants fielded a defence that included a shortstop that has the range of a traffic cone, a designated hitter at first base AND Pat Burrell.
Biggest “Oh Shit” Moment: Stephen Strasburg Blowing Out His Arm.
The fate of the Nationals future (and Dr. James Andrews’ career practicing sports medicine) hangs on how Strasburg’s arm will respond to Tommy John surgery.
Slowest Player to Steal a Base: Bengie Molina.
At the end of the regular season this title would have gone to Rangers catcher Matt Treanor. That said, Bengie has been far and away the slowest player in MLB since 2003, so when he swiped a bag in the playoffs with the stakes at their highest, he deservedly took the crown away from Treanor. Molina also plans to retire this year, so it’s a nice gesture to have him go out on top.
Player Who Agonizingly Still Failed to Live Up to His Potential: BJ Upton.
Instead of having a breakout campaign in 2010 Upton again seemed to be playing a personal game of “how low can my batting average go before I get platooned”. There’s an old saying in baseball that speed never takes a day off, but whoever said that hasn’t seen Upton run out a ground ball.
Biggest “I Told You So” Team: Seattle Mariners
After coming off an 85 win season and trading for Cliff Lee, the Seattle Mariners thought they were finally contenders again in the AL West. But despite plenty of offseason buzz, every sportswriter in the country was red flagging this team. The rotation behind Lee and Felix Hernandez was susceptible and unproven. Adrian Beltre and Russell Branyan were gone. This meant an already weak offense would be getting weaker and that was if Milton Bradley (acquired from the Cubs) could finally put it together. Needless to say, none of this worked out and Seattle will be drafting second next June.
Most Disappointing Free Agent Signing: Rich Harden.
Texas enjoyed last year’s biggest free agent bargain in Vladdy Guerrero, but the value gained in the Guerrero signing might have been cancelled out by the loss sustained in the Harden signing. Paying $6.5 million dollars for a 5.68 ERA and 5 wins is something only the Yankees can afford to do. Luckily it was only a one year contract.
Most Impressive Season Played With a Sports Hernia: Jose Bautista.
Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres.
I still don’t completely believe that this team won 90 games this year. Now Boston fans will have to wait until July to acquire Adrian Gonzalez.
Biggest Trend That Didn’t Pan Out: Strong Defensive Teams.
Last offseason, defence was a hot commodity. Many teams (Boston and Seattle) based their free agent and trade acquisitions (Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Casey Kotchman, Jack Wilson) on defensive efficiency, assuring their fans they would be competitive through run prevention. The value of defence should not be undermined, but it turns out you still need to pitch and hit. I don’t know who watched the World Series but the San Francisco Giants fielded a defence that included a shortstop that has the range of a traffic cone, a designated hitter at first base AND Pat Burrell.
Biggest “Oh Shit” Moment: Stephen Strasburg Blowing Out His Arm.
The fate of the Nationals future (and Dr. James Andrews’ career practicing sports medicine) hangs on how Strasburg’s arm will respond to Tommy John surgery.
Slowest Player to Steal a Base: Bengie Molina.
At the end of the regular season this title would have gone to Rangers catcher Matt Treanor. That said, Bengie has been far and away the slowest player in MLB since 2003, so when he swiped a bag in the playoffs with the stakes at their highest, he deservedly took the crown away from Treanor. Molina also plans to retire this year, so it’s a nice gesture to have him go out on top.
Player Who Agonizingly Still Failed to Live Up to His Potential: BJ Upton.
Instead of having a breakout campaign in 2010 Upton again seemed to be playing a personal game of “how low can my batting average go before I get platooned”. There’s an old saying in baseball that speed never takes a day off, but whoever said that hasn’t seen Upton run out a ground ball.
Friday, October 8, 2010
2010 Division Series Notes
Playoff Stats
TBS and Fox – please stop showing playoff statistics in lieu of regular season statistics during telecasts. Thank you for informing us that BJ Upton is hitting .000 but it is a seven at bat sample, and doesn’t really tell us much about him as a player. Unless you catch a player the first time through the order, you will be treated to stats like that instead of regular season numbers that more accurately reflect how a player has preformed over the past 8 months.
Doctober
Roy Halladay is the only pitcher in baseball who you can expect to throw a no hitter and your expectation would sound reasonable. Judging by his subdued no-no celebration, Doc has one thing on his mind, and that is winning the World Series. Now that he is pitching for the Phillies in the National League ( and despite being 33), Doc’s high level of conditioning and modern sports medicine means there is no reason to think he can’t pitch in the next 15 post seasons.
The Yankees and Left Handed Lineups
After two games, the Twinkies are looking awfully susceptible to left handed pitching. While the Yankees expect to throw as much LHP at the Twins as possible, it is worth remembering that the Phillies lineup is also dominated by left handed hitters. As good as their starting pitching looks, New York was able to hold the Phils lineup at bay last October and a potential rematch could bring the same problem for Philadelphia. Does the Philly Fanatic bat right?
Texas Toast
Many are suggesting the Rangers will make some noise in the AL this October and while they did make quick work of Tampa Wednesday and Thursday, I’m still not sold. They limped into the playoffs, key position players are hurt (Josh Hamilton), while others don’t understand what exactly playoffs are (Vladimir Guerrero). Their rotation behind Cliff Lee is also unproven and like many converted relievers, number two starter CJ Wilson may tire from the increased workload that comes with starting.
Rookie Showdown
If anyone wants to get acquainted with the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year, they should be watching the Giants/Braves series. If you are betting against both Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, you might as well cut off your thumb and give it to your bookie now. My vote goes to Posey (because he has to catch Tim Lincecum), but watching Heyward’s combination of speed and power in the middle of the Braves lineup makes for a good debate and an even better NLDS matchup.
The Yankees “Clutch” Players
Its pretty hard to listen to announcers canonize Yankee players for their “clutch” performance abilities. Is it really true that Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter are really that clutch? Sure they are the all time hits/saves/wins/obnoxious first pump leaders, but that has more to do with the expanded playoff format and playing for a team that continually makes the postseason. When it comes to things like batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, winning percentage and career post season ERA only Rivera is present among the top ten all time playoff performers. These Yankees aren’t just that good, they are just there that often.
TBS and Fox – please stop showing playoff statistics in lieu of regular season statistics during telecasts. Thank you for informing us that BJ Upton is hitting .000 but it is a seven at bat sample, and doesn’t really tell us much about him as a player. Unless you catch a player the first time through the order, you will be treated to stats like that instead of regular season numbers that more accurately reflect how a player has preformed over the past 8 months.
Doctober
Roy Halladay is the only pitcher in baseball who you can expect to throw a no hitter and your expectation would sound reasonable. Judging by his subdued no-no celebration, Doc has one thing on his mind, and that is winning the World Series. Now that he is pitching for the Phillies in the National League ( and despite being 33), Doc’s high level of conditioning and modern sports medicine means there is no reason to think he can’t pitch in the next 15 post seasons.
The Yankees and Left Handed Lineups
After two games, the Twinkies are looking awfully susceptible to left handed pitching. While the Yankees expect to throw as much LHP at the Twins as possible, it is worth remembering that the Phillies lineup is also dominated by left handed hitters. As good as their starting pitching looks, New York was able to hold the Phils lineup at bay last October and a potential rematch could bring the same problem for Philadelphia. Does the Philly Fanatic bat right?
Texas Toast
Many are suggesting the Rangers will make some noise in the AL this October and while they did make quick work of Tampa Wednesday and Thursday, I’m still not sold. They limped into the playoffs, key position players are hurt (Josh Hamilton), while others don’t understand what exactly playoffs are (Vladimir Guerrero). Their rotation behind Cliff Lee is also unproven and like many converted relievers, number two starter CJ Wilson may tire from the increased workload that comes with starting.
Rookie Showdown
If anyone wants to get acquainted with the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year, they should be watching the Giants/Braves series. If you are betting against both Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, you might as well cut off your thumb and give it to your bookie now. My vote goes to Posey (because he has to catch Tim Lincecum), but watching Heyward’s combination of speed and power in the middle of the Braves lineup makes for a good debate and an even better NLDS matchup.
The Yankees “Clutch” Players
Its pretty hard to listen to announcers canonize Yankee players for their “clutch” performance abilities. Is it really true that Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter are really that clutch? Sure they are the all time hits/saves/wins/obnoxious first pump leaders, but that has more to do with the expanded playoff format and playing for a team that continually makes the postseason. When it comes to things like batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, winning percentage and career post season ERA only Rivera is present among the top ten all time playoff performers. These Yankees aren’t just that good, they are just there that often.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
The Value of the Wild Card and Other September Notes
While watching a game earlier this week, I heard the validity of the Wild Card questioned by one color commentator for a not to be named Midwestern team. In doing so, John Q. Dinosaur brought up what I thought was a dead issue. The Wild Card is great for baseball, and it only takes a passing interest in some of the series and games being played this past week to see why.
What separates baseball from other North American sports is how difficult it is to reach the playoffs. The NFL has two Wild Card teams in each Conference (10 playoff teams), and if the NBA let anymore teams (16) qualify, it would have to start taking WNBA teams. Less than twenty years ago, baseball was only giving FOUR teams a shot at the big dance. The Wild Card era realignment and playoff expansion has ensured that highly competitive teams are not left out of the playoff picture. In 2001 while the Seattle Mariners (on their way to 119 wins), had locked up the AL West in early May, the Oakland A’s, (on their way to a 96 win season), were able to remain in contention and eventually reach the playoffs. This year the Giants, Phillies, Padres, Braves and Rockies are competing for three playoff spots instead of only two. All of these teams should finish win at least 90 wins, and a winning percentage higher than over half the teams reaching the playoffs in the NHL or NBA this year.
The most common argument against the Wild Card is that it makes winning the division meaningless. Anyone who watched the Rays and Yankees series over the past two weeks can attest that this is not the case. The divisional title is still something worth playing for, especially given that it can translate into home field advantage (the Yankees home winning percentage is nearly 100 points higher). In the Rays/Yankees matchups of the past two weeks, knowing that both teams were headed to the post season no matter what the result (as was probably the case with the Braves and Phillies series) did not detract from some of the most entertaining baseball played this month.
The playoffs and stretch drive (minus sports bag giveaway day) are the most exciting time of the year for baseball and baseball fans and the Wild Card only adds to this excitement.
The Phillies Rotation
This week’s series against the Braves has proven the Phillies made the right call pulling the trigger on the Roy Oswalt trade. Not only will the Hamels/Halladay/Oswalt tandem ensure the Phillies are able to fend off Atlanta for the NL East crown, Philadelphia looks to own the best rotation of any contending team. Behind Sabathia, the Yankees are unsure what they will get from Andy Pettite (due to his injured groin) or A.J. Burnett (because he is A.J Burnett). In Tampa, the Rays rotation behind David Price is also faltering (Matt Garza and Jeff Niemans have struggled of late). The AL doesn’t get scared of its senior circuit opponents very often, but this time it has reason to be.
Felix’s Cy Young Bid
If Felix Hernandez is discounted from CY Young contention it shouldn’t be because he has pitched in fewer meaningful games or in a less competitive division – if this is really a criteria that should be taken seriously than all the awards in both leagues should be given to players on the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
The Debut Of Young Pitching
With Kyle Drabek’s Major League debut I want to issue a caution to fans: do not to get too high or too low on young pitching. No one should have to be reminded of this, as every baseball fan can tell you about a young pitcher that broke their heart. Whether it was someone who blew out their arm pitching for Dusty Baker (Mark Prior) or someone who just didn’t pan out (Todd Van Poppel), young pitching is one of the most unpredictable commodities in the sport. The news isn’t all bad – for every Todd Van Poppel, there is a pitcher who surprises us and puts together a nice career despite rising through the minors completely unnoticed (Jamie Moyer). In any case pitchers take time (to develop or flame out) and we need to be sensitive to this learning curve, even though it’s often longer than we’d like it to be.
Josh Johnson Is Shut Down
When your home starts consist of pitching in front of 2,000 Miami Dolphin season ticket holders and the cast of Jersey Shore, you’re probably not going to garner much attention. But to give you an idea of how good Josh Johnson is, before he was shut down last week, he had been pitching with significant shoulder problems throughout the second half. During that time, he was in so much pain, his ERA ballooned to 3.50 (he still finished the year with an ERA under 3.00). AL centric fans like myself should remember that Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball and his accomplishments should be celebrated even before he gets traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.
What separates baseball from other North American sports is how difficult it is to reach the playoffs. The NFL has two Wild Card teams in each Conference (10 playoff teams), and if the NBA let anymore teams (16) qualify, it would have to start taking WNBA teams. Less than twenty years ago, baseball was only giving FOUR teams a shot at the big dance. The Wild Card era realignment and playoff expansion has ensured that highly competitive teams are not left out of the playoff picture. In 2001 while the Seattle Mariners (on their way to 119 wins), had locked up the AL West in early May, the Oakland A’s, (on their way to a 96 win season), were able to remain in contention and eventually reach the playoffs. This year the Giants, Phillies, Padres, Braves and Rockies are competing for three playoff spots instead of only two. All of these teams should finish win at least 90 wins, and a winning percentage higher than over half the teams reaching the playoffs in the NHL or NBA this year.
The most common argument against the Wild Card is that it makes winning the division meaningless. Anyone who watched the Rays and Yankees series over the past two weeks can attest that this is not the case. The divisional title is still something worth playing for, especially given that it can translate into home field advantage (the Yankees home winning percentage is nearly 100 points higher). In the Rays/Yankees matchups of the past two weeks, knowing that both teams were headed to the post season no matter what the result (as was probably the case with the Braves and Phillies series) did not detract from some of the most entertaining baseball played this month.
The playoffs and stretch drive (minus sports bag giveaway day) are the most exciting time of the year for baseball and baseball fans and the Wild Card only adds to this excitement.
The Phillies Rotation
This week’s series against the Braves has proven the Phillies made the right call pulling the trigger on the Roy Oswalt trade. Not only will the Hamels/Halladay/Oswalt tandem ensure the Phillies are able to fend off Atlanta for the NL East crown, Philadelphia looks to own the best rotation of any contending team. Behind Sabathia, the Yankees are unsure what they will get from Andy Pettite (due to his injured groin) or A.J. Burnett (because he is A.J Burnett). In Tampa, the Rays rotation behind David Price is also faltering (Matt Garza and Jeff Niemans have struggled of late). The AL doesn’t get scared of its senior circuit opponents very often, but this time it has reason to be.
Felix’s Cy Young Bid
If Felix Hernandez is discounted from CY Young contention it shouldn’t be because he has pitched in fewer meaningful games or in a less competitive division – if this is really a criteria that should be taken seriously than all the awards in both leagues should be given to players on the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
The Debut Of Young Pitching
With Kyle Drabek’s Major League debut I want to issue a caution to fans: do not to get too high or too low on young pitching. No one should have to be reminded of this, as every baseball fan can tell you about a young pitcher that broke their heart. Whether it was someone who blew out their arm pitching for Dusty Baker (Mark Prior) or someone who just didn’t pan out (Todd Van Poppel), young pitching is one of the most unpredictable commodities in the sport. The news isn’t all bad – for every Todd Van Poppel, there is a pitcher who surprises us and puts together a nice career despite rising through the minors completely unnoticed (Jamie Moyer). In any case pitchers take time (to develop or flame out) and we need to be sensitive to this learning curve, even though it’s often longer than we’d like it to be.
Josh Johnson Is Shut Down
When your home starts consist of pitching in front of 2,000 Miami Dolphin season ticket holders and the cast of Jersey Shore, you’re probably not going to garner much attention. But to give you an idea of how good Josh Johnson is, before he was shut down last week, he had been pitching with significant shoulder problems throughout the second half. During that time, he was in so much pain, his ERA ballooned to 3.50 (he still finished the year with an ERA under 3.00). AL centric fans like myself should remember that Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball and his accomplishments should be celebrated even before he gets traded to the Yankees or Red Sox.
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