2012 AL Predictions in 723 Words

Here are my quick and dirty American League Predictions for 2012.
Division Winners

AL East – New York Yankees

You never get fired for buying IBM, and this winter, IBM’s rotation got a whole lot better. Adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to a rotation that already includes CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova turned an organizational weakness into an organizational strength. The Yank’s offence should be as potent as ever (2nd in baseball with 867 runs scored) and it wouldn’t be crazy to see better years from Mark Teixeira (he had a line of .248/.341/.494 in 2011, his lowest since his rookie season) and Alex Rodriguez (who should be healthier). The bullpen should be stellar, especially if Raphael Soriano is pitching effectively – the prospect of using David Robertson in the seventh inning is a scary one for the rest of the AL East. And it’s always hard to bet against the team that can just go out and buy whatever it is they don’t have (maybe a catcher or a DH-type) at the trade deadline.

AL Central – Cleveland Indians

You gotta take some chances or these things all boring as hell to read. It’s easy to think the Tigers are going to run away with the division, but I’m not convinced. Sure, they signed Prince Fielder, but he is replacing the injured Victor Martinez, so the offensive upgrade should not be as drastic as many think. There is no way Jose Valverde is going to have anything close to the year he had in 2011, and the rest of their bullpen options are less than ideal. Kansas City is on the rise but I think their young pitching needs another year of seasoning before they can contend. Cleveland on the other hand, has a solid rotation that has the potential to be very good if Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to form and I expect Shin Soo-Choo to rebound from a down year. Combined with the Indians young players (Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis), and the fact they play in baseball’s easiest division, I say the Tribe upset Detroit and sneak into the playoffs.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A lot of people are down on the Angels’ offence. I’m not as bearish as most. The Halos are able to get above average production from their middle infielders - Erik Aybar and Howie/Howard Kendrick. If the team can employ Mike Trout, Alberto Callaspo and Mark Trumbo correctly (ie. not playing Trumbo everyday), combined with Albert Pujols and a potential return of Kendrys Morales, the offence should be significantly better. Combined with the Angels’ rotation, Los Angeles should come out on top of the AL West. Texas is very good team too, but until Yu Darvish (who they are counting on to replace CJ Wilson) establishes himself as a frontline starter and Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler prove they can stay off the disabled list, I wouldn’t bet against the Angels.

Wildcard - Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers

While these teams may have a few more question marks in my mind than the Angels and Yankees, they are still very, very good teams; even if there are injury concerns and Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard struggle to make the transition to the starting rotation. I am hesitant to think that the Rays or Blue Jays can hang with the Rangers and Red Sox. Tampa’s rotation is as good as anyone’s, but outside of Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and maybe Desmond Jennings, their offence is sporting some significant holes (shortstop, catcher) and features an absolute tonne of strikeout potential thanks to Carlos Pena and BJ Upton.

Rookie of the Year – Matt Moore, Tampa Rays

This award is the Tampa righty’s to lose. He has shown no reason (although admittedly in a small sample last season) that he can’t continue to be successful at the Major League level, even in baseball’s toughest division.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria, Tampa Rays

There are going to be a lot of players that have big offensive seasons this year in the American League. Longoria is going to be one of them. He is also going to be one of the only big hitters that plays stellar defence at a demanding position. The Rays should play well enough for him to secure the “winning matters” contingent of the vote.

What Could Go Wrong: 2012 Seattle Mariners

Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Seattle Mariners, that much, everybody knows. But what if things aren’t on their way to improving like we think they are? This weeks’ absolutely worst case scenario looks at the Seattle Mariners.

If anyone doubted Seattle’s commitment to rebuilding, the January trade of Michael Pineda to New York should leave no doubt that this team is not trying to win anything in 2012, and playing in a division that includes the Rangers and Angels, means they really shouldn’t be. Because Seattle isn’t expecting to contend in 2012, the only thing that could really hinder the team this year is a lack of development by players counted on to be cornerstones of the Mariners’ rebuild. Seattle is rich in pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), and while the team is not devoid of position player depth (Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez), they do lack projectable, high upside, middle of the order bats outside of Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

This January, the Mariners sent Michael Pineda, a top of the rotation talent with a solid rookie season already under his belt, to the Yankees with the idea that they could build their offense around Jesus Montero. While he does have the ability to become a middle of the order bat, there are some unanswered questions in his game. By some accounts, Montero appeared bored last year in the minor leagues (he slugged under .500 for the first time since 2008), and playing for a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily inspire focus. No one outside the clubhouse (like a random Canadian baseball fan taken to blogging...) really knows the extent of the problems, but if Montero does have issues related to focus or motivation, these problems may follow him to a team that wins 70 games for the next couple years.

There is also the issue of Montero’s ability to develop as a power hitter. By all accounts, Montero is a strong kid with power to all fields. If, for some reason however, that power doesn’t translate at Safeco Field, where Mariners brass are banking he will show power to the right field(the only place power hitters can exploit in Seattle), his on-base and contact skills may not be worth the price Seattle paid to acquire him. There is also some concern from scouts who believe that Montero‘s defence is not good enough to have him stick at catcher in the major leagues. A version of Montero that is used primarily as a DH and isn’t able to produce middle of the order power numbers will definitely lead to more questions than answers for Seattle over the next few years.

The Mariners’ other power bat of the future, Justin Smoak, has also failed to live up to the expectations that made him the centrepiece of the Cliff Lee trade two years ago. Smoak is still only twenty five years old and has suffered a rash of injuries and personal setbacks (he lost his father last season), that suggest it is too early to write him off yet. With this in mind, his performance since arriving in the big leagues in 2010 has not been stellar. In 886, plate appearances – not the smallest of sample sizes, he has posted a slash line of .227/.318/.385.

The Mariners have young pitching to spare. It’s why they traded Michael Pineda, and it’s why they can absorb the blow if someone like Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen doesn’t pan out as they hoped. 2012 won’t be Seattle’s year, but if Justin Smoak or Jesus Montero aren’t able to develop into middle of the order power bats the team can pair with Dustin Ackley (who needs to avoid a sophomore slump of his own), the team may need to re-evaluate and consider trading another arm (maybe eve Felix Hernandez) and another couple years of losing before they are once again competitive in the AL West.

What Could Go Wrong: Atlanta Braves

If I’ve learned anything from Fox News, it’s that sensationalism plays big. I’ve also learned that nothing gets people’s attention better than worst case scenarios. The kind of coverage that screams loudly that something COULD happen, however unlikely it may be. So in the spirit of Fox News and in liu of a measured analysis (which most spring previews at least try for), I thought I would change it up by over-reacting and looking at an everything-goes- wrong, worst case scenario for a few teams around the Major Leagues. First on the docket, the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves were a playoff team up until the last day of the regular season, and they come into 2012 with the roster primarily intact. A lot of things didn’t break right for Atlanta in 2011, but the 2012 season also brings with it some unanswered questions, namely, can the team stay healthy enough to compete.

In 2011, Jason Heyward’s sophomore season was plagued by some combination of injuries and underperformance. Now while there is reason to believe that a healthy Jayson Heyward can build on his 2010 rookie season, there are questions as to whether or not he will stay healthy, as Heyward appears to be building a reputation as injury prone. Without Heyward, the heart of Atlanta’s order is overly reliant on the aging Chipper Jones, strikeout machine Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann. Entering the twilight of his career, Jones’ production has begun to fall off, and McCann, who is quietly putting together a great career of his own (he’s slugged at least .450 every year since ‘06), will only play 120-130 games a year to stay fresh and avoid wear and tear. Between Heyward, Jones and McCann, the Braves will need things to break right to ensure their middle of the order bats stay on the field for the majority of the year. If they don’t, it will get pretty frustrating watching Dan Uggla strikeout in 25% of his at bats.

While the lineup contains question marks, the biggest uncertainties for the Braves come from the pitching staff. On the surface, the Braves have a loaded staff, with more reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. But aside from their depth, Atlanta could face some obstacles. Ace Tommy Hanson‘s torn rotator cuff and seemingly endless DL stints are concerning. Already sidelined briefly this spring with a concussion, Hanson has only started over 22 games once in the last 3 seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees limited action this year. Number two starter Tim Hudson is facing concerns of his own, as he turns 38 this summer and attempts to come back from off season back surgery. Combine Hudson and Hanson’s potential to miss time with All-Star Jair Jurrjens potential to regress (his xFIP was over a run higher than his ERA in 2011), and Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland, the Braves’ rotation could end up thinner than it appears in 2012.

When it comes to the back end of the bullpen, no one was better than Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. The downside however, is that almost no one pitched as many innings as Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Freddi Gonzalez’s usage of the duo was heavily criticized he but he could very well be run out of town if they are unable to repeat their rookie performances, or even worse, blow out their arms. Let’s hope Gonazalez doesn’t turn into Dusty Baker version 2.0.

So there you have it, an everything that could possibly go wrong outlook on the Atlanta Braves. Not a realistic, thorough, or measured assessment (that would include things like Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn and the ability of Vizcaino and Teheran to step into the rotation), but one that was fast, quick and might leave you more worried than you should be. Kind of like how you feel after watching Fox News.

I'm Over It

Like any polarizing decision, the Ryan Braun hearing has brought out the best in people all over the internet. But racial slurs (check twitter if you don’t believe me) and straw men aside, the decision has led to many people to do one of two things: chastise Braun for cheating and dishonoring the game, or scream at the top of their lungs as to why policing steroids in baseball is an idiotic pursuit. So for all the discussion surrounding the issue, my question is this: who cares?

The relationship between steroids and improved play is a murky one at best. On one hand, it’s easy to see brick-shithouse players like Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds and Mark McGuire and assume that steroids can lead to massive improvements in player’s on field performance (usually, by way of increased muscle mass). These arguments, however, are far from scientific, and we tend to gloss over all the players in the Mitchell Report who didn’t see huge spikes in their numbers (hey look, another unscientific argument!). But again, this relationship a complicated one, and nothing would please me more than to refrain from adding another uneducated and unproven claim about steroid use to a cannon that is growing larger and larger by the day.

Maybe PED’s do improve performance and maybe they don’t, but after being treated to another week’s worth of analysis, I’m starting to think the discussion around steroid use is more ideological war than productive conversation. I’m tired of hearing how Ryan Braun has cheated the game, and I’m tired of hearing why people that think he cheated the game are stupid. The crazy part is that little of the discussion had to do with how the star leftfielder’s impeding suspension might affect the Brewers’ on field performance. I know this rant itself is an unfair generalization, but as the calendar turns to March, baseball itself is what I’m interested in. When it comes to steroids and Ryan Braun, or steroids and whoever, I’m over it.

Is He A Steal?

Earlier today, the Yankees and Pirates finalized a trade that sent AJ Burnett and cash (the latter almost goes without saying) to Pittsburgh for two low level (and apparently low ceiling) minor leaguers. Even before the trade was finalized, there has been a lot of talk about how this trade could be a win for Pittsburgh (Keith Law, Eric Karabell, Eric Seidman). A move to the weaker National League, getting out of a bandbox home ballpark, and a bit of bad luck over the past two years (3.86 xFIP last year) has these analysts suggesting that Burnett can be a valuable pitcher over the remaining two years of his contract. Now, it might be contrarian in me, or maybe it’s the spiteful Blue Jays fan, but here are a few reasons the trade doesn’t make as much sense to me.

As much as AJ Burnett’s statistics over the last few years could have been attributed to some bad luck, some of his periphery statistics (at least in the interpretation of this non-sabermatrician) have been trending in the wrong direction. Since joining the Yankees, Burnett’s walk rates (4.22, 3.76, 3.92) have been higher than any season in his career since 2001. Similarly, his strikeout rate, has been trending in the wrong direction. With the Blue Jays in 2007 and 2008 AJ averaged K rates of 9.56 and 9.39, since joining the Yankees, that rate dropped to 8.18 last year while he posted a 6.99 k/9 rate in 2010. Burnett has also started to lose a tick of velocity on his fastball which averaged 92.7 mph in 2011 after averaging at least 94.2 mph through 2009. AJ Burnett will also pitch this year at age 35, and it isn’t unheard of to see power pitchers decline quickly, when they start to lose their stuff. Even in a best case scenario, a gradual the decline still appears to be already underway for everyone’s favourite enigma.

Suggestions that Burnett will thrive away from Yankee Stadium could be overblown, as remember, he did post some of his best seasons in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. His declining results could be a combination of age, more walks and fewer strikeouts. Burnett’s inability to handle a major media market and thus his ability to rebound from it, may also be overblown. Stories and accusations about Burnett’s inconsist performance have been following him around throughout his time with the small market Marlins and Blue Jays (in terms of media coverage) and not just with the Yankees.

Beyond the concerns listed above, acquiring Burnett seems to make little sense for a Pirates team that is still at least 2 years away from contention in the NL Central. Even if Burnett is a 2.5 win (above replacement) pitcher over the next two years, this is most likely the difference between fielding 74 win team and fielding a 77 win team. The 13 million dollars the Pirates committed to Burnett could have been better spent in the amateur draft (although this has become more difficult with the new CBA), or signing/trading for a player that can help the team when they are ready to contend again in a few years. Trading Burnett for anything of value could also prove to be difficult given his inability (or at least perceived inability) to pitch in the AL East and his reluctance to move to the west coast (he vetoed an earlier trade that would have sent him to the Angels).

Acquiring AJ Burnett is by no means the worst trade made this offseason, and there are definitely some reasons to suggest it could work out for the Bucs. That said, the little argumentative voice inside me says this trade may not be the steal it appears to be.

Give Him A Break: Josh Hamilton Deserves Our Respect

Much has been written about Josh Hamilton’s January 30th misstep in his ongoing recovery from drug and alcohol problems. While Hamilton’s battle with substance abuse has always been a talking point in the baseball media, the discussion has increased in recent weeks, fuelled no doubt, by the outfielder’s impending free agency. Like any contentious issue, there have been some contentious responses to Hamilton’s most recent slip up. Regrettably, what is overlooked in these responses all of the things Josh Hamilton is doing right.

One of the most important things to remember about Josh Hamilton’s battle with drugs and alcohol is that Hamilton acknowledges his vulnerability and limitation. Not only is this a more human and relatable way to understand a professional athlete, it’s also more realistic. Many people throughout professional sports (and life in general) would benefit from approaching alcohol and drug use like Josh Hamilton. There are most likely many players within Major League baseball that should be dealing with alcohol the same way Hamilton does (trying not to touch it) but choose not to. Hamilton is open about his relationship with drugs and alcohol in a way that other players are not. Typically we only learn of an athlete’s substance abuse if it results in an arrest (Miguel Cabrera’s arrest last offseason as one example). Hamilton is proactive in a way that most people dealing with substance abuse problems are not. This proactivity is valuable tool in his recovery; there is always a better chance of improving at anything (whether it’s dealing with addiction or increasing your OPS against left handed pitching) when you can acknowledge and understand your current limitations. If anyone is going to beat addiction, it’s going to be someone who is actively battling it, not someone who is ignoring the problem.

Unfortunately, last week I read a couple tweets suggesting that Josh Hamilton’s actions were nothing more than a poor choice he made freely. All that kind of statement proves is that whoever is making it has no understanding of what a substance addiction entails, or how the people that suffer from them are required to manage their disease on a daily basis. In the words of Captain Hook – “poor form Jack, poor form”. We should be viewing Josh Hamilton as a success – people that struggle with addictions are always susceptible to relapse. The fact that he has only slipped up (at least publically,) twice in the last five years is admirable. There are many people who struggle with addictions that would love to be able to say the same thing. Josh Hamilton is not perfect, but he handling the most difficult of situations in an admirable way. A way that I hope we can learn from, instead of criticize.

Just Go For It

It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.