Payroll Disparities and the Death of Moneyball

Recently Joe Posnanski wrote an article for Sports Illustrated proclaiming that Moneyball has died - not by virtue of its ineffectiveness, but rather because its principles have been absorbed by larger market teams, which once again leaves small market teams at a disadvantage. He points to how larger market teams started valuing OBP and walks just as much as Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s and that these small market teams are once again left out in the cold looking for a way to compete against the Wal-marts of professional baseball. While this once again sounds like discouraging news for any team not based in New York or Los Angeles, the news isn’t all bad. Spending money does not guarantee you anything in baseball and teams that invest reasonably (in both payroll or organizational development) still do have a chance at making it to the big dance. For all the success of the major market teams, there have also been many failures. The New York Yankees continually spend at least double to that of most teams in the way of payroll yet have not won a World Series since 2000. While many would suggest that the Yanks are still able to field competitive teams and make the playoffs, when you are spending 70 million dollars more than the next closest team (and 188 million more than the Florida Marlins), is that really any excuse or consolation? If it was my 209 million dollars (Yankees ‘09 payroll) I would have fielded three different MLB teams with 70 million dollar payrolls and taken my chances that way. Of 2009’s top 10 spenders the Mets, Cubs, Mariners, Astros and (potentially) Tigers are all at risk of not making the playoffs. Many smaller and mid market teams have been able to build winners despite not being able to spend like the big boys: the Cardinals, Rays, Rockies, Twins, Brewers and Indians have continually made playoff runs in the last few years despite limited payrolls. While Posnanski might suggest that these teams have the advantage of time – being able to tolerate losing at certain points while their young players develop or the roster is rebuilt; big spending teams lose at almost the same clip. The Yankees, Tigers and Mets all missed the playoffs last year despite all ranking in the top 5 in spending. The Giants, Astros and Mariners are all big spenders that have continually failed to make the playoffs over the last 5 years. Since we inked BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett, the Jays have continued to spend significant amounts of money without making the playoffs. J.P. might want to complain about how much the Yankees and Boston spend but you know who doesn’t? 2008 American League Champion Tampa Bay. It would be wrong to suggest that there is no correlation between spending money and being competitive, spending does increase your chances of winning, but all is not lost. Teams with strong scouting/drafting and player development programs (the Cardinals turn seemingly every castoff pitcher into gold; or, productive outfielders in the case of Rick Ankiel) still have a chance at making the playoffs. What is the fun in rooting for Wal-mart anyway?

Top 5 Ballparks

Every year at this time my buddy Max and several other friends go on an annual vacation where they spend a week driving around the US taking in baseball games at several different major and minor league ballparks. This has inspired me to write this weeks blog on my own favorite ballparks. Feel free to weigh in

1) Wrigley Field (Chicago Cubs) - Aside from Albert Pujlos, The Friendly Confines might be the only thing that makes the National League worth watching. It is the only ballpark I know planted right in the middle of a residential neighborhood, and the ivy brick outfield wall gives Alfonso Soriano and the rest of the Cubs outfielders an excuse for dogging it.

2) Yankee Stadium (NY Yankees) - I absolutely can't stand the Yankees but hey, it is Yankee Stadium. There is more history in that ballpark than the rest of the American league parks combined.

3) PNC Park (Pittsburgh Pirates) - I got to go to PNC field last year and the park really is amazing. Great sight lines for watching the games, a great view of downtown Pittsburgh and the Allageny (sp.?) River and awesome food. Once they get a major league team to play there it will be even better.

4) Skydome/Rogers Centre (Jays Baby) - I know its ugly and it has a stupid name, but it is the home of the Toronto Blue Jays and when you grow up watching a team, getting to go and see the place where your favorite players come and play everyday has a charm that can't be replaced. Its where John Olerud very politely made a run at .400, where Robbie Alomar made No Fear t-shirts the best selling clothing item in the world for boys between the ages of 7 and 12 and where Joe Carter touched em all'.

5) Labatt Park (London, ON) - I figured I should put one non-MLB park on the list. While some might suggest that I am biased because I grew up in London, I would challenge anyone to find a nicer minor league ballpark park. It used to be the home of the London Tigers, the AA affiliate of the Detroit Tigers, but currently only houses local and intercounty games. The field is kept in amazing condition, there is a great view of the downtown London skyline and if you are doing enough steroids you can probably hit a ding dong into the Thames River.

Adios Alex

On Monday night we saw the Jays trade away the most stylish member of the 2009 team. Alex Rios - http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/AlexisRios2008Season.jpg (honourable mention to Rod Barajas). While the move makes financial sense for the Blue Jays, it is still tough to swallow. The trade is so tough to swallow because of how talented we always hear that Rios is. We saw glimpses of it, and we thought he was starting to put it together after his 2007 season. Whatever is preventing him from producing, it isn't a lack of physical skill or baseball attributes (in MLB 09 the Show for Playstation, he is rated at 90 something overall and that definitely tells you something). For whatever reason he didn't seem to be able to put it together in Toronto (it wasn't because he spent too much time singing autographs). I think that a change of scenery to Chicago will help him produce. Hitting in the same lineup as Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Carlos Quinten and Paul Konerko will take a lot of the pressure of him, as he won't be asked to be a main run producer. And despite his yelling match with that fan in Toronto, playing with AJ Pierzinski will make Rios look like Mother Theresa. Now maybe the Jays can use that payroll flexibility to sign Raul Chavez and Jose Bautista longterm.

Trade Deadline

Today was the MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline and what I (and all other Jays fans) was surprised by was the move that didn’t happen: our very own smooth pimp general manager J.P Riccardi decided to hang on to Roy Halladay. While the Philadelphia Phillies seemed to be the most logical fit for Halladay, they fell out of the sweepstakes early Wednesday when they acquired Cliff Lee from Cleveland, but what surprised me the most about this years deadline was that Halladay was not perused more aggressively by the Bosox or Yankees. Neither the Yanks or Bosox are particularly thin on starting pitching, but given the kind of difference maker Halladay is, he could have single handedly changed the face of competition in the AL East. If I was either the Yankees or Red Sox, I would have been heavily pursuing Doc. Imagine Boston going into the playoffs with a rotation fronted by Halladay, Josh Beckett, Dice-K and Jon Lester or the Yankees running out Halladay, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlin. Adding Halladay would make either rotation the most dominant in the game. Whichever team that acquired him would have instantly become World Series and AL East favorites for both this year and next as well as provide a striking blow in the on-going rivalry between the two teams. If Boston was still pissed that New York poached Mark Texiera this off season what better way to get payback? If New York is serious about dethroning Boston as reigning division champ and reasserting their dominance what better way then by acquiring one of the games best pitchers? Halladay is one of the only players in baseball who could change the dynamic between the two rival teams in this way. Because these two rivals play in the Jays’ own division they would have had to give up much more in the way of prospects in order to acquire Halladay. However, obtaining a player like Halladay is well worth a Clay Bucholtz or a Phil Hughes or any other combination of high ceiling prospects, especially considering you would have Halladay for at least 2 post seasons and have a good chance to resigning him to a long term deal (the guy just wants to win dammit). Lastly although I know that baseball people will say that it was a mistake to keep Halladay and that his value will never again be this high, I am still happy to see him stay in Toronto. Even if the Jays can’t seem to be able to win with him, he is good enough that he makes the Jays exciting - every fifth day, we get to watch one of the best pitchers in baseball. If he had been traded the only thing worth watching in a Blue Jays game would be Adam Lind and Aaron Hill at bats. So while it may not be the best move for the team long term, the 2009 Blue Jays are a lot more palatable now that I know Roy is still going to pitching every 5th day.