Toronto’s offence seemingly just keeps rolling. After a weekend in which the Blue Birds hit six home runs on Friday night and scored twelve runs two days later, it is safe to say that no one saw this year’s tater surge coming. Toronto is far and away out homering the rest of baseball, and it is in large part due to many pleasant surprises in the Jays lineup: Kevin Youkilis Jr. (John Buck) and Alex Gonzalez are both on pace for career highs in ding dongs. Edwin Encarnacion came off the DL to hit 5 bombs in one weekend, and Jose Bautista leads the majors in homers, no one saw this coming. While it is easy to get excited about this unexpected power surge and a 27-20 start; I am hoping that cooler heads prevail inside the Jays organization and this season is still treated as the first year of a rebuilding process.
Treating this team as one that is rebuilding means several things for the currently surging Jays. With Bautista, Encarnacion and Fred Lewis all exceeding expectations, creating playing time for Travis Snider will prove to be a challenge. Developing young players that will become cornerstones of the franchise should still be priority number one (unless we plan on singing Alex Gonzalez long term). Hopefully someone that has the potential to become an impact player like Snider doesn’t have to ride the pine because Cito wants to play the hot hand of Fred Lewis.
Despite the Jay’s impressive home run total, this offence needs to be put into perspective. Friday against Arizona the team hit six dingers and STILL lost. While the Jays may be leading the league in homers, they sit 12th in the 14 team AL in on base percentage, which is not the sign of a dominant offensive team and suggests the Jays will be fumbling to score runs if the home run fountain dries up. The Jays coaching staff needs to be preaching patience along with power if this team wants to truly develop into an offensive force.
Lastly, the surprise offensive output of so many different Blue Jay hitters should be used to do what rebuilding teams do best: trade for younger players. Many around baseball are suggesting that Jose Bautista is for real: he has made adjustments to his swing that will translate into sustained results (it is also important to note that despite his .241 average, he has a respectable OBP. Of .354). That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t sell high on players like Alex Gonzalez, Fred Lewis, and John Buck (on the pitching side of things Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor could be attractive to contending teams). If any of these chips can be turned into productive young players, they Jays should pull the trigger.
Despite this offensive surge the Jays are still facing several challenges: they sit in third place, 7 games behind the Rays, the fourth place Red Sox are beginning to surge and Kevin Gregg is currently closing. As exciting as the team is playing, taking the long view in this situation by focusing on player development and building for the future will ensure that two years from now the are contending and not just exciting.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Monday, May 3, 2010
So It's Been Four Weeks...
We are four weeks into the 2010 season and before we start buying Alex Gonzalez jersey’s (don’t do it) or putting all our money on the San Diego Padres to win the NL (don’t do it), let’s take a minute to evaluate some of the unexpected things that have happened this April and predict what surprises are for real and what teams and players will come back down to earth.
Will Travis Snider Hit Under .200?
Things look bleak for the Jays sophomore, but don’t worry everyone, stat heads to the rescue! Snider has one of the lowest batting average on balls in play in the major leagues. Translation: he has run into a streak of bad luck and is swinging the bat much better than his average suggests. If Cito keeps with him (and he should) Travis’ numbers will improve.
Red Sox Woes
Let’s not freak out Red Sox Nation, the team is still playing .500 baseball but there are reasons for concern. There were questions about Boston’s offence coming into the season, and with injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with the continual struggles of David Ortiz the offence has been more anemic that the BoSox are used to. This may be a problem (although one that can be addressed via trade) in the coming months, but what is really responsible for the Red Sox slow start is poor pitching and defense. Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey have ERA’s over 5.00 and Victor Martinez has throw out 2 baserunners all month. I wouldn’t expect either of these trends to continue all season long: Lackey and Beckett are quality pitchers and should rebound as the season moves along and Daisuke Matsuzaka is replacing Wakefield in the rotation. While he is no Johnny Bench, Victor Martinez is a better defensive catcher than how he is playing (he has thrown out 30% of runners in past seasons). Once the catching and pitching are sorted, the Red Sox will be in a better position to judge how the 2010 team will perform.
Is Andruw Jones Going to Rake All Year?
Over the last few years, Andruw Jones’ production has deteriorated to the point that his signing with the White Sox this winter went virtually unnoticed. This year he reported to camp in great shape and has already hit 8 big flies for the Sox. Can he keep it up? There are reasons to believe he can: He is playing his home games at US Cellular Field, one of the best hitters parks in the American League, he is protected in the order by Paul Konerko and Carlos Quinten but most importantly, Jones appears to be more motivated than he has been in years past (hence the better shape). Jones’ talent coupled with his newfound work ethic, should ensure that he continues to produce all year for the South Siders.
Seattle’s Offensive Struggles
Every sports writer in America is muttering “I told you so” over this one. What I can’t understand is why Jermaine Dye is still sitting at home without a contract.
Are the Mets for Real?
Let’s wait and see. I expect the New York offence to produce enough to contend but it all depends on their pitching. Right now, Mike Pelfrey has an ERA under 2.00, Jon Niese is pitching incredibly well for a rookie and Oliver Perez is still the most expensive fifth starter in baseball. Its only May and I do expect that these two young pitchers come back to earth but if they can continue put up decent numbers behind Johan Santana, the Mets may not overtake the Phillies but they do have a shot at staying in playoff contention.
Will Travis Snider Hit Under .200?
Things look bleak for the Jays sophomore, but don’t worry everyone, stat heads to the rescue! Snider has one of the lowest batting average on balls in play in the major leagues. Translation: he has run into a streak of bad luck and is swinging the bat much better than his average suggests. If Cito keeps with him (and he should) Travis’ numbers will improve.
Red Sox Woes
Let’s not freak out Red Sox Nation, the team is still playing .500 baseball but there are reasons for concern. There were questions about Boston’s offence coming into the season, and with injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with the continual struggles of David Ortiz the offence has been more anemic that the BoSox are used to. This may be a problem (although one that can be addressed via trade) in the coming months, but what is really responsible for the Red Sox slow start is poor pitching and defense. Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey have ERA’s over 5.00 and Victor Martinez has throw out 2 baserunners all month. I wouldn’t expect either of these trends to continue all season long: Lackey and Beckett are quality pitchers and should rebound as the season moves along and Daisuke Matsuzaka is replacing Wakefield in the rotation. While he is no Johnny Bench, Victor Martinez is a better defensive catcher than how he is playing (he has thrown out 30% of runners in past seasons). Once the catching and pitching are sorted, the Red Sox will be in a better position to judge how the 2010 team will perform.
Is Andruw Jones Going to Rake All Year?
Over the last few years, Andruw Jones’ production has deteriorated to the point that his signing with the White Sox this winter went virtually unnoticed. This year he reported to camp in great shape and has already hit 8 big flies for the Sox. Can he keep it up? There are reasons to believe he can: He is playing his home games at US Cellular Field, one of the best hitters parks in the American League, he is protected in the order by Paul Konerko and Carlos Quinten but most importantly, Jones appears to be more motivated than he has been in years past (hence the better shape). Jones’ talent coupled with his newfound work ethic, should ensure that he continues to produce all year for the South Siders.
Seattle’s Offensive Struggles
Every sports writer in America is muttering “I told you so” over this one. What I can’t understand is why Jermaine Dye is still sitting at home without a contract.
Are the Mets for Real?
Let’s wait and see. I expect the New York offence to produce enough to contend but it all depends on their pitching. Right now, Mike Pelfrey has an ERA under 2.00, Jon Niese is pitching incredibly well for a rookie and Oliver Perez is still the most expensive fifth starter in baseball. Its only May and I do expect that these two young pitchers come back to earth but if they can continue put up decent numbers behind Johan Santana, the Mets may not overtake the Phillies but they do have a shot at staying in playoff contention.
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