I'm Over It

Like any polarizing decision, the Ryan Braun hearing has brought out the best in people all over the internet. But racial slurs (check twitter if you don’t believe me) and straw men aside, the decision has led to many people to do one of two things: chastise Braun for cheating and dishonoring the game, or scream at the top of their lungs as to why policing steroids in baseball is an idiotic pursuit. So for all the discussion surrounding the issue, my question is this: who cares?

The relationship between steroids and improved play is a murky one at best. On one hand, it’s easy to see brick-shithouse players like Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds and Mark McGuire and assume that steroids can lead to massive improvements in player’s on field performance (usually, by way of increased muscle mass). These arguments, however, are far from scientific, and we tend to gloss over all the players in the Mitchell Report who didn’t see huge spikes in their numbers (hey look, another unscientific argument!). But again, this relationship a complicated one, and nothing would please me more than to refrain from adding another uneducated and unproven claim about steroid use to a cannon that is growing larger and larger by the day.

Maybe PED’s do improve performance and maybe they don’t, but after being treated to another week’s worth of analysis, I’m starting to think the discussion around steroid use is more ideological war than productive conversation. I’m tired of hearing how Ryan Braun has cheated the game, and I’m tired of hearing why people that think he cheated the game are stupid. The crazy part is that little of the discussion had to do with how the star leftfielder’s impeding suspension might affect the Brewers’ on field performance. I know this rant itself is an unfair generalization, but as the calendar turns to March, baseball itself is what I’m interested in. When it comes to steroids and Ryan Braun, or steroids and whoever, I’m over it.

Is He A Steal?

Earlier today, the Yankees and Pirates finalized a trade that sent AJ Burnett and cash (the latter almost goes without saying) to Pittsburgh for two low level (and apparently low ceiling) minor leaguers. Even before the trade was finalized, there has been a lot of talk about how this trade could be a win for Pittsburgh (Keith Law, Eric Karabell, Eric Seidman). A move to the weaker National League, getting out of a bandbox home ballpark, and a bit of bad luck over the past two years (3.86 xFIP last year) has these analysts suggesting that Burnett can be a valuable pitcher over the remaining two years of his contract. Now, it might be contrarian in me, or maybe it’s the spiteful Blue Jays fan, but here are a few reasons the trade doesn’t make as much sense to me.

As much as AJ Burnett’s statistics over the last few years could have been attributed to some bad luck, some of his periphery statistics (at least in the interpretation of this non-sabermatrician) have been trending in the wrong direction. Since joining the Yankees, Burnett’s walk rates (4.22, 3.76, 3.92) have been higher than any season in his career since 2001. Similarly, his strikeout rate, has been trending in the wrong direction. With the Blue Jays in 2007 and 2008 AJ averaged K rates of 9.56 and 9.39, since joining the Yankees, that rate dropped to 8.18 last year while he posted a 6.99 k/9 rate in 2010. Burnett has also started to lose a tick of velocity on his fastball which averaged 92.7 mph in 2011 after averaging at least 94.2 mph through 2009. AJ Burnett will also pitch this year at age 35, and it isn’t unheard of to see power pitchers decline quickly, when they start to lose their stuff. Even in a best case scenario, a gradual the decline still appears to be already underway for everyone’s favourite enigma.

Suggestions that Burnett will thrive away from Yankee Stadium could be overblown, as remember, he did post some of his best seasons in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. His declining results could be a combination of age, more walks and fewer strikeouts. Burnett’s inability to handle a major media market and thus his ability to rebound from it, may also be overblown. Stories and accusations about Burnett’s inconsist performance have been following him around throughout his time with the small market Marlins and Blue Jays (in terms of media coverage) and not just with the Yankees.

Beyond the concerns listed above, acquiring Burnett seems to make little sense for a Pirates team that is still at least 2 years away from contention in the NL Central. Even if Burnett is a 2.5 win (above replacement) pitcher over the next two years, this is most likely the difference between fielding 74 win team and fielding a 77 win team. The 13 million dollars the Pirates committed to Burnett could have been better spent in the amateur draft (although this has become more difficult with the new CBA), or signing/trading for a player that can help the team when they are ready to contend again in a few years. Trading Burnett for anything of value could also prove to be difficult given his inability (or at least perceived inability) to pitch in the AL East and his reluctance to move to the west coast (he vetoed an earlier trade that would have sent him to the Angels).

Acquiring AJ Burnett is by no means the worst trade made this offseason, and there are definitely some reasons to suggest it could work out for the Bucs. That said, the little argumentative voice inside me says this trade may not be the steal it appears to be.

Give Him A Break: Josh Hamilton Deserves Our Respect

Much has been written about Josh Hamilton’s January 30th misstep in his ongoing recovery from drug and alcohol problems. While Hamilton’s battle with substance abuse has always been a talking point in the baseball media, the discussion has increased in recent weeks, fuelled no doubt, by the outfielder’s impending free agency. Like any contentious issue, there have been some contentious responses to Hamilton’s most recent slip up. Regrettably, what is overlooked in these responses all of the things Josh Hamilton is doing right.

One of the most important things to remember about Josh Hamilton’s battle with drugs and alcohol is that Hamilton acknowledges his vulnerability and limitation. Not only is this a more human and relatable way to understand a professional athlete, it’s also more realistic. Many people throughout professional sports (and life in general) would benefit from approaching alcohol and drug use like Josh Hamilton. There are most likely many players within Major League baseball that should be dealing with alcohol the same way Hamilton does (trying not to touch it) but choose not to. Hamilton is open about his relationship with drugs and alcohol in a way that other players are not. Typically we only learn of an athlete’s substance abuse if it results in an arrest (Miguel Cabrera’s arrest last offseason as one example). Hamilton is proactive in a way that most people dealing with substance abuse problems are not. This proactivity is valuable tool in his recovery; there is always a better chance of improving at anything (whether it’s dealing with addiction or increasing your OPS against left handed pitching) when you can acknowledge and understand your current limitations. If anyone is going to beat addiction, it’s going to be someone who is actively battling it, not someone who is ignoring the problem.

Unfortunately, last week I read a couple tweets suggesting that Josh Hamilton’s actions were nothing more than a poor choice he made freely. All that kind of statement proves is that whoever is making it has no understanding of what a substance addiction entails, or how the people that suffer from them are required to manage their disease on a daily basis. In the words of Captain Hook – “poor form Jack, poor form”. We should be viewing Josh Hamilton as a success – people that struggle with addictions are always susceptible to relapse. The fact that he has only slipped up (at least publically,) twice in the last five years is admirable. There are many people who struggle with addictions that would love to be able to say the same thing. Josh Hamilton is not perfect, but he handling the most difficult of situations in an admirable way. A way that I hope we can learn from, instead of criticize.

Just Go For It

It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.