Sunday, October 9, 2011

Notes from the Under-Mound, Oct 8, 2011

ALCS

Yes, the Tigers just disposed of the best (based on record, and strength of schedule) team in the American League, but I’m still betting that they don’t give the Rangers much of a fight in the ALCS. Aside from Miggy and V-Mart (and with Alex Alvila struggling), the Tigers’ lineup looks pretty anaemic. Delmon Young and Dom Kelly played the role of offensive hero in the ALDS, but the Tigers scored just under 3.5 runs per game, which probably won’t be enough to hold down the Rangers. Along with Detroit’s potential offensive issues, there is a Tiger bullpen that relies exclusively on Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. Even if Papa Grande’s inevitable implosion is somehow postponed until next season, Jim Leyland showed us in the Yankee series that he has little faith in anyone other than his setup man and closer, never a good sign. The Ranger lineup is one of the best in baseball (3rd in runs scored, 5th in team OBP, 2nd in team slugging), and the four man rotation will allow Alexi Ogando to pitch out of the pen, strengthening an already formidable relief corps. My pick is Texas in five.

NLCS

With all the shit talking between the Cards and Brewers, Ron Roenicke decided not to start Nyjer Morgan in game one of the NLCS. While on the surface, the move keeps one of the series’ biggest mouthpieces off the field; it also gets one of Milwaukee’s only above average defensive players (Carlos Gomez) into the game. Aside from the trash talk, health is a major issue in this NLCS. Both Ricky Weeks, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are playing hurt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either manager decides that having Weeks/Holliday at 60% isn’t enough to keep them in the lineup; both players look severely limited right now. Predicting the NLCS seems a little more difficult than calling it’s American League counterpart. Both teams are flawed; Milwaukee has defensive issues and holes in their lineup (third base, centerfield and shortstop) while St. Louis has bullpen and lineup (second base and center field) issues of its own. Neither team is more than three starters deep in the rotation. Too bad, Adam Wainwright isn’t healthy. This series is equally talented, equally flawed teams; I’ll take the Brewers in seven.

10th Avenue Freese Out

There has been much ado (read: criticism) about Tony La Russa’s in game managerial tactics so far in these playoffs (listen to ESPN’s Keith Law for an elaboration). While La Russa is often criticized for his bullpen management (he used all but one pitcher in a nine inning NLDS game), he also likes to use the double switch and defensive replacements. Criticizing La Russa’s managerial style at this point would be beating a dead horse. We get it; he likes to make his mark on a game. One recently minted piece of micromanaging that La Russa should reconsider is removing David Freese in the late innings. Freese is one of the Cardinals better offensive weapons (especially with Holliday hurt) and there is evidence (albeit a small sample) that he is improving defensively at third base (he owns a UZR of +2.4 this season). Assuming that Freese can be league average level in the field, the Cards may be best served to keep Freese and his bat in any game.

Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 Playoffs: 5 Players I’m Excited to Watch


The 2011 playoffs start tomorrow, and for a non MLB-TV subscribing Canadian like myself, that means I will be treated to watching baseball players I don’t often get to see. Call it lack of commitment, ignorance or east coast bias; there are teams and games I just don’t get to fully appreciate during the regular season. Here are some of the players I’m most looking forward to getting a closer look at.

Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays

Yes, he plays in the same division as the Blue Jays, but as of now Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings in his major league career, so I should be absolved from not knowing much about the lefty. In that 9.1 innings, Moore has 15 strikeouts. By all accounts Moore has electric stuff and could be a difference maker if the Rays should choose to deploy him (that in itself may be an interesting storyline too). Josh Beckett’s coming out party in the 2003 playoffs was one of the most exciting elements of the Marlins’ World Series run. Moore could be this year’s Josh Beckett.

Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

I am told by many baseball writers that Upton is one of the most underappreciated superstars in the game. Upton can run (20 steals), hit (.369 OBP/.529 SLG) and play defence (a + 8.2UZR rating this year). The talent’s of players that excel at every aspect of the game cannot be justly appreciated by looking at statistics alone (no matter how high his WAR maybe). Here’s hoping the rest of the Arizona lineup can hit enough to prevent Upton from being intentionally walked 10 times so we can all see the superstar he is.

CJ Wilson – Texas Rangers

Wilson has been a very good starting pitcher for the Rangers over the last two years. He is also a free agent come the end of the World Series. Wilson will play next season at age 31 and is hitting the free agent market with only two years of starting experience under his belt. I’m curious to see how Wilson performs. It may be a small sample but his playoff performance will go a long way to shape the narrative and perception of Wilson as a free agent to be. I know, it sounds crazy but some teams are still suckers for “a proven winner”.

Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers

One would think I’d be able to pay close enough attention to someone that stars on a team two hours west of home. That person has probably not been subjected to the same TV blackouts that I have. Yes, he can’t run or play the field (despite all of this, he has still accumulated a WAR of 7.3 this year), but the man can do some serious yard work. Miggy’s career OBP is .395, and in 8 full seasons, he has never hit fewer than 30 HR’s or slugged under .512. Aside from Albert Pujols, Cabrera may be the most consistent hitter in baseball. It’s going to be fun to watch Cabrera terrorize CC Sabathia and the back end of the Yankee bullpen.

Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies

Everyone knows that the Halladay/Lee/Hamels trio at the top of the rotation can neutralize any offence. The question of late has become, whether or not the Phillies can hit enough to ensure their star pitchers efforts do not go to waste. In years past, Howard has been shut down by good left handed pitchers. If Howard can somehow reverse his fortunes against lefties (his career OPS is 272 points higher against righties) for just a couple of weeks, the Phillies may be unstoppable.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept 23, 2011

What RBIs Can Tell Us

“Hey I guess they’re right. Seniors citizens, while slow, and dangerous behind the wheel, can still serve a purpose.” – Lloyd Christmas on the value of old people

RBIs are like Lloyd Christmas’ assessment of senior citizens. They are very limited, but if you think about them in the right light, they can still provide some value. They are not valuable predictors of future performance or accurate ways to describe a players past performance. RBIs are wholly dependent on people getting on base in front of the batter credited with them. That means they are something the hitter credited (or not credited) with the RBI cannot control. That’s why this year’s Blue Jay cleanup hitter Adam Lind (86 RBI) drives in more runs than leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar (48 RBI), despite Escobar’s far superior offensive season (higher OBP, wOBA). While RBIs may not be the best way of evaluating players' past performance or future value, they can serve a purpose as a descriptive stat. When taken as such, RBI can help tell the story of a single game. Knowing Chase Utley had 3 RBIs in the 7th inning of last night’s tie game (even if he hit a squibbler down the line), does more than saying he slugged .667 last night. I don’t see Win Probability Added making its way into the laurels of common vocabulary anytime soon either. RBIs don’t provide insight into a hitter’s true performance or ability, but they can provide some (albeit very limited) context into what happened on the field.

Comeback Player of the Year Award

Like core values and truths in post- enlightenment, western society; how we interpret the Comeback Player of the Year Award is a personal choice. Should it go to a player that is coming back from a major injury? Or should it go to a player coming back from a terrible year? My vote/interpretation goes to the latter. For the most part, players who that get hurt are expected to return to form and get back to their pre-injury level of performance. Players coming off of terrible years are a little more complicated. They are often seen as washed up or too old (Jim Thome), one time overachievers, or just not very good (Carlos Pena before 2007). These are the players I want to see winning comeback player of the year. Their stories are more interesting, and that’s what the Comeback Player Award is all about: the story. I don’t know why Brad Lidge couldn’t get his head right in 2006/2007 but however he went from frazzled late inning headcase to ace reliever is a much more compelling story than the guy who was good, blew out his arm, missed a year and came back to be the exact same player he was before (Chris Carpenter I’m looking at you...). You know how it goes with these interpretive awards: one man, one opinion.

Moneyball Movie


I’m going to spare you one more opinion on the apparently controversial Moneyball movie. What I do want to say is that we should try to remember that Moneyball is a movie, and shouldn’t be evaluated as anything more. Let’s not use it as an argument either for or against the use of statistical analysis in baseball. Enjoy the movie!

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Jerkball 2012: Acquire Logan Morrison?




The Alex Anthopoulos led Blue Jays have had a knack for freeing talented but “troubled” players from the doghouses of other Major League teams. Acquiring a promising young player for what is often perceived as less than market value has recently been dubbed (read: it has surfaced once or twice as a twitter hash tag) Jerkball: the new market inefficiency. In terms of results, it’s been so far so good with Yunel Escobar, who is proving to be one of the better (and relatively inexpensive) shortstops in the league. While the jury is still out on Colby Rasmus, his upside has lead to many analysts calling the trade a win for the Blue Birds. Now keeping in mind that my trade musings are entirely theoretical (given that I know nothing of the asking price, availability, finances, negotiations, and everything else that is needed to make a major league trade), I think I have found the Blue Jay’s next Jerkball trade target.


The latest player to tweet his way out of favour with his current club is the Florida Marlins’ Logan Morrison. Since his August 13th demotion (and subsequent recall), Morrison has hit the club with a grievance that claims he was disciplined (demoted) without just cause. Whatever Morrison may or may not be tweeting about, he is barely 24 years old and sits second on the Marlins (among players with 100 PA) in HR, slugging percentage and wOBA. It’s also important to remember that this is Morrison underachieving. Blue Jay fans (myself included), love Adam Lind and Eric Thames. Lind and Thames are players you root for to succeed. The problem however, is that rooting for these guys to succeed doesn’t seem to help them get on base. Lind (.298) and Thames (.308) are both getting on base at well below league average rates. Acquiring Morrison would be a means of upgrading either position given that he possesses better on-base skills, comparable power, and most importantly, a higher ceiling.


As a left fielder, Morrison has a lot in common with Eric Thames. Neither are considered league average defenders at this point in their careers. However, Morrison has yet to show that he is the same defensive liability at first base, a position he played consistently in the minor leagues (Morrison has since been moved off first base to accommodate slugger Gaby Sanchez). Splitting Morrison’s time between left field, first base and DH would minimize the negative impact of Morrison’s defence. Playing Morrison would also limit Eric Thames (LF/DH) exposure to left handed pitching (.220 AVG/.250 OBP, albeit in a limited sample size), and allow the club to play him in situations where he is more likely to succeed (against right handed pitching).


Right now, Lind, Thames and Morrison have all been 0.7 WAR players this year. Last year, Baseball America and Project Prospect both had Morrison listed as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball. The all-knowing Keith Law had Morrison come in at #21. Let’s hope that Adam Lind can rebound, and hey as long as were hoping, why not hope that Eric Thames can become an average Major League regular. Morrison may not be available, and if he is, his asking price may be too high, but in the spirit of the Jerkball movement, why not take a chance on a player who is young, unhappy and has the unrealized potential that the Alex Anthopoulos run Blue Jays like so much.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Limited Exposure: Why the Rangers Should be Careful with Their Young Starting Pitchers

As we enter the final weeks of September, the Texas Rangers are in contention once again. With a 2.5 game lead on Los Angeles, the Rangers are fighting for their second AL West title in as many years. During this fight, Texas will be relying on three young starting pitchers in Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. As the year moves on, innings limits and shutdown dates are often discussed. However, Texas is in a position where limiting the workload of its young starting pitchers will benefit the Rangers now as well as down the road.

One through four, the Texas rotation is as strong as any in the American League. As of September 5, CJ Wilson, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison all have ERA’s under 4.15 (Holland’s is the highest at 4.13) and xFIP’s under 4.00 (Ogando’s is the highest at 3.95). While the New York and Boston rotations are posting similar numbers, Clay Buchholz return is still up in the air. Down the road in the Bronx, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon (who have contributed to the Yankee rotations’ similar xFIP and ERA numbers) look like they may be turning back into pumpkins. But like New York and Boston, the Texas starters have their own unanswered question: How will their young arms hold up down the stretch?

The question of how to handle young pitchers on playoff bound teams is a contentious one. There is a fairly large body of research that suggests innings limits and shutdown dates have not been as affective as some have suggested (http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id155.html). With this in mind, increased workloads could still be an issue for Texas starters. Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison all threw under 100 innings last year, and while Harrison (in 2007 at AA) and Holland (with the Rangers in 2009) have thrown over 100 innings once in their careers, they have already exceeded their career highs by 40 innings. That number should shoot to around 60+ additional innings (150 for Ogando) as Texas marches through September. Even if you don’t come from the Tom Verducci School of Pitcher Management, there is still risk with having young pitchers significantly increase their workload. In the case of the Rangers three young starters, they will be close to doubling it. Injury risk aside, fatigue may be a real concern for Ranger pitchers moving forward. Alexi Ogando’s August and September ERA’s of 7.14 and 4.50 are the highest of any months this year. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland also saw their highest monthly ERA’s in August. As we move deeper into September, the quality of innings 160 through 190 may not be the same as innings 1 through 100.

This July, Texas acquired some of the best arms on the market (in Koji Uehara and Mike Adams) to accompany Neftali Feliz at the back of the Ranger bullpen. Both pitchers are in the top 30 relievers in Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If deployed, these relievers can affectively shorten a game to six innings. Given fatigue on young arms, and the (newly acquired) quality of the Texas relief corps, the most optimal way to manage the Ranger pitching staff may be to limit their young starters to five (or six innings depending on pitch count) max. This should limit the amount of poor performance the Rangers see from fatigued starters late in the season, increasing their chances of both holding on to their AL West lead, and winning games in the playoffs.

Relying on three potentially exhausted starting pitchers in a pennant race is not an ideal situation. But if Texas can limit the amount of innings these pitchers see, it will help them win now, and win later. Because whether or not there is an increased risk of injury, tired pitchers throwing meaningful innings is never a good thing.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept, 3, 2011

Yankee/Red Sox Games Take Too Long
I thought I liked baseball, but that was before I watched the Sox/Yankee game on Thursday night. I know I’m about the 10 millionth person to complain about the length of these games, but I’m also the 10 millionth person who is right about it. I get that drawing walks and working a count can take up more time, but that has nothing to do with the 35 plus seconds (yeah, I started timing) in between pitches. Can the Yankees and Red Sox please watch how Jose Bautista (who just happens to lead the league in OBP), operates in between pitches? The guy is as patient as anyone but instead of strolling through as much foul territory as possible in between pitches, he keeps one foot in the box most of the time. I know Blue Jays games tend to have fewer A-list celebs sitting behind home plate than Yankee/Red Sox tilts, but for the love of God, stay in the damn batter’s box.


MVP Watch: If Jose Bautista Isn’t Playing for a Contender, Neither is Justin Verlander

Every year I promise myself I’m not going to argue with my friends about MVP races, and every year I get sucked back in. It’s exactly like Michael Corleone trying to get out of the family business... exactly the same. I don’t want to go on some long diatribe about how to interpret what “valuable” means, but I will say that it seems preposterous to suggest the Tigers “contention” makes Verlander a better candidate than Bautista. The Blue Jays are as good a team (if not better) than Detroit. The Tigers, who play in a far weaker division, have still only managed to win 7 more games than the Blue Jays. If you don’t think playing 57 games a year against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, is substantially more difficult than 57 games against the Royals, Indians and Twins, I don’t know what to tell you. The Jays and Jose Bautista in the AL Central are playoff contenders, just like the Tigers in the AL East are nothing more than a .500 team.

Rooting for Lind
Everyone in Toronto is rooting for Adam Lind to succeed, but as we enter September, we may have reason to worry about the smiley Blue Jay. As Jay’s/Sportsnet blogger Tao of Stieb notes, in the last 253 games (save one hot month) Lind’s offensive numbers are eerily similar to the Arizona Diamondbacks first basemen’s. Has the ghost of Lyle Overbay come back to haunt Adam Lind? This year Lind’s WAR is 0.5 and we have seen his AVG and OBP dip down into the .250/.290 range. Looking for any reason I can to hope Lindy can break out of it, let’s remember he is hitting .253 against LHP, a year after he posted an abhorrent .117 clip. His BABIP is a tick low at .264 and despite a WAR of 0.5, I don’t think he is the defensive liability at first base that Fangraphs does (he has a +4 Total Zone rating according to Baseball-Reference.com). His line drive percentage is also right where it was when he had his breakout 2009 season. He still needs to take more walks but let’s not stick the proverbial fork in Lind yet, even if it’s just because we all like him so much.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Bright Future, Missing Link?

You don’t need to be the happiest man in Springfield to admit the Blue Jays future is starting to look pretty bright. The lineup features one of baseball’s best hitters in Jose Bautista. Yunel Escobar, JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie have the potential to become valuable contributors for years to come. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have established themselves as top of the rotation starters. If Travis Snider can’t figure things out, recent history suggests Alex Anthopoulos will be able to trade him for Albert Pujols straight up. Couple this with the fact that Toronto is probably already better than some of this year’s to be determined playoff entrants (AL Central/NL West, I’m looking at you...) and there really is a lot to be excited about. So with all the positives pouring out of camp Blue Jays, there is one thing the team may still be missing if they want to make a playoff push two or three years down the road: another frontline starting pitcher.


According to this year’s Hustle and Heart TV promos, Ricky Romero is the staff ace. This probably has to do with a combination of performance, consistency and service time. Romero is an extremely valuable, top of the rotation major league pitcher (even if this years’ LOB rate of 81.4% suggests he may be a bit lucky). But if you’re more inclined to consider advanced statistics and pure stuff, Brandon Morrow could be viewed as the best pitcher on the team. This year, Morrow is a top twenty pitcher according to xFIP (he may have been last year as well if he had thrown enough innings), he also has ace-calibre stuff and is young enough that he shouldn’t be prone to decline in the next few years. Morrow should be an ace, but as we approach September, we are looking at the second straight year in which his xFIP, K/9 and other periphery statistics don’t seem to be translating into the on field results we expect them to. Some blame the dreaded big inning but I don’t really know what that means. Morrow is young, and turning the corner is not something that would surprise anyone but there is also some reason to believe that he may continue to see results slightly below his true talent level (something called Ricky Nolasco Syndrome). Regardless of whether or not you believe Morrow will make improvements, the need for another frontline starter to accompany Morrow and Romero at the top of the rotation is still something the Blue Jays should consider.


Even with Morrow (in any incarnation) Romero at the top of the rotation, another elite starter is almost necessary to compete in the AL East. The Jays don’t need to look any further than this year’s Red Sox team (who rank just ahead of the Jays in xFIP) to see the problems that arise from a lack of quality starting pitching. Despite having two top of the rotation starters in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the weak underbelly of the Red Sox’s rotation has been exposed (and saved by the BoSox lineup) with the back injury to Clay Buchholz (thats really how you spell BUCHHOLZ!). If you start Andrew Miller enough times, the Yankees are going to gain some ground.


Anecdotal evidence aside, the Blue Jays staff ranks in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.12 and a WAR of 10.2. Unless they plan on slugging their way to the top, improvements need to be made. As frustrating as it is to see lead after lead coughed up by the bullpen, BJ Ryan and every sabermatrician ever born has me doubting that a “proven closer” is the answer to Toronto’s pitching problems. The Jays need better starting pitching. While they do have front of the rotation prospects in the high and low minors, young arms take time to develop (remember Roy Halladay’s first few years?). And like any prospect (or player for that matter), there is also some risk the player may get injured or not live up to their potential. Bringing in a top of the rotation starter would ensure they Jays don’t have to pin their soon to be playoff hopes entirely on one or two young arms the second they get to the big leagues.


Is it possible to contend without three dominant pitchers at the top of a rotation? Sure. The Yankees are doing it; but it’s definitely more difficult. Is it possible that Toronto can solve this problem internally? Yes, but it may be a risky proposition to hang your proverbial hat on Toronto’s current minor league players; especially with Kyle Drabek’s newly developed loss of command and Henderson Alvarez’s inability to miss bats. A top of the rotation starter is one of the rarest commodities in baseball and I admit that acquiring one is no easy task. But the Jays have enough talent and money to make paying the price for a top starter feasible. Whether Toronto looks to finally spend Rogers oft-promised money and acquire an arm via free agency (CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia are both free agents this offseason), or use current minor league position player depth to fill an area of weakness at the major league level, another “outside hire” at the top of the rotation may be needed to put the Jays in a position to compete in the AL East. Whether or not Toronto is ready to compete next year or in 2013, elite starting pitchers don’t grow on trees and one may not be available at moment the Jays are ready to make the jump to certified contending team. That may mean acting sooner rather than later. Acquiring one more starting pitcher might turn what is now a bright future, into an exciting (and hopefully playoff bound) present in Toronto.

Don't Call It a Comeback

So yeah, I’ve been busy over the last few months. But watching the Tea Party storm back onto the Canadian Music scene after years in hibernation (and in Crash Karma), inspired me to continue ranting uncontrollably about my favourite slow moving professional sport.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Why Doesn’t Anyone Like Mike Napoli?

As the Jays spend the better part of the week battling the Rangers (and Canadian interest in the NHL playoffs) down in Texas, we get our first 2011 look at the other player someone was willing to give up in exchange for Vernon Wells; Mike Napoli. Now I’ve been told the common wisdom stating you should avoid tattoos because it will reduce your chance of getting a good job has become outdated, but seeing Napoli struggle to find both playing time and a home has me wondering.


The First question to ask is why Mike Scioscia seems to detest Napoli to the point that the Angels were willing to give up such a productive player while taking on Wells’ $80 million in salary. Yes, he is not a great defensive catcher, but he can play at first or DH, and with Michael Cuddyer manning second base for the Twins, we could be seeing the start of the big-bodied second baseman era. Given that Napoli’s versatility and that the Angels are 18th in the League in OBP and runs scored, it would seem as though he maybe a worthwhile option. That said, the Angels do have options at these positions: Mark Trumbo (even though he’s struggling), Kendrys Morales (even though he’s on the DL), Hank Conger (even though he’s not Jeff Mathis) and Bobby Abreau, so it does make at least some sense that the Angels would let Napoli go. Even if a case can be made that Napoli is a better offensive player than everyone listed above not named Kendrys.


More confusing however, is why the Jays and Rangers made the Napoli trade. From Toronto’s perspective, Napoli would be somewhere between the second and fourth best hitter in their lineup, depending on how much you like Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar (and until Travis Snider breaks out). Sure, that would mean carrying Juan Rivera as a part time player (you probably couldn’t deal him if you wanted to), but Napoli’s bat would still be a welcome addition. Having Napoli take either Rivera or Encarnacion’s share of at bats at DH (while also being able to spell at 1B and C) would mean more production for a Jays’ lineup that seems to “run into” a lot of “hot” pitching. Sabermetrically speaking, Napoli has been god for a 2.7 WAR over the previous three seasons, versus Encarnacion’s 1.9, and Rivera’s 1.0 (the low average is due to injuries and inconsistent play). While Rivera did have a WAR of 3.3 in 2009, he has never in his career posted another WAR above 3, and only once (2006) did he post a plus 2 WAR. Napoli may also see his numbers spike moving from the pitcher friendly Angel Stadium to the homer friendly Ballpark in Arlington (or Rogers Centre, sigh).


As for what the Jays received in the trade, Frank Francisco is a solid (if not underrated) reliever that should help the bullpen. Has posted good strikeout rates along with all the other positive peripheral stats you look for from a reliever. The question isn’t really whether or not Francisco is a good pitcher, but rather did the Jays really need to give up what could be one of their better offensive weapons in order to add to a bullpen that already contains enough serviceable arms? Confusing the situation further are the Rangers motivations for the trade. Why would Texas want to trade Francisco for Napoli given their own pitching issues and unwillingness to play Napoli?


As of today, Napoli has 48 at bats for the Rangers. Fewer than Michael Young(102), Mitch Moreland(74), and Yorvit Torrealba (69), all of whom he is competing with for playing time. That’s not even considering the Rangers’ other first baseman and catcher: Chris Davis and Taylor Teagarden, currently on the active roster (really, they have that many). When Josh Hamilton returns from the DL, Napoli’s playing time may decrease even more with Moreland unable to play in the outfield. For all the depth the Rangers have at 1B/C/OF, their pitching is thin. Aside from Darren Oliver and the now injured Neftali Feliz, the Rangers lack reliable bullpen options. It may have served Texas better to keep Francisco in the pen, rather than trade him for another offensive player that will struggle to get more than 300 ABs. Keeping Francisco and instilling him as closer also would have made it easier to move Neftali Feliz (one of the team’s best arms) out of the bullpen to help shore up an equally weak rotation, an idea Rangers brass was toying with in spring training.


Why Mike Napoli seems unable to get anything more than a part time gig is beyond me. Especially considering Adam Kennedy has batted cleanup for a Major League team in the past two weeks. He isn’t as good against right handed pitching as he is against left, but he does have power, a good eye (save his low OBP last year) and the ability to play three positions, one of which is catcher. This is a skill set that I think shouldn’t leave a guy fighting for 300 at bats after being traded twice. Maybe it is the tattoos.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Panic In Boston? A Response to Dave Cameron

One of the most commonly asked questions after a week’s worth of baseball games has been “should Boston be worried?” The odds on World Series favourites have started the season 0-6, unable to eek out a win against even the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yesterday, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs issued his own more statistically based suggestion that Boston may indeed be in trouble . While it is scary to think about climbing out of an 0-6 hole, I’m still not ready to assume Boston is any less likely to be the team they were expected to be eight days ago.

Cameron’s argument is as follows: At the beginning of the season, Frangraphs writers (as a mean) predicted that Boston would win 98 games this year. This equals 60.5% of all their games. Knowing that Boston has started the season 0-6, Cameron is concerned that if the Red Sox win 60.5% of their remaining games, it will leave them with only 94.4 wins (rounded up to 95 to account for the fact that all 6 loses have came on the road), one win above the 94 wins the Yankees are projected to have this year. This means the Sox have seriously hurt their chances of winning the AL East

Let’s assume that the projection is true, and the Sox are supposed to win 60.5% of their games this year. After a week of 0-6 baseball, there is still no reason to think the initial projection of 98 (or 60.5%) wins should be subject to any change. When you project a team to win 60.5% of its games, you are projecting a team to win 60.5% of all 162 games over the course of a season. This does not mean that the team must win 60.5% of its games over a shorter period of time (one week in this case) within the season. It should be expected that any team over the course of 162 games should go through periods of (for example) winning 9 in a row, losing 6 in a row and a combination of many other hot and cold streaks in between. Even a team expected to win 98 games. The inverse of this point is that no one is ready to suggest that New York, who has started the season winning 66.7% of their games (4-2) should win 108 games. I would guess (seeing as there was no mention of Yankee improvement in the article) that Cameron doesn’t even seem ready to claim that New York is likely to improve upon the 94 wins that Fangraphs initially projected, despite their hot start. Winning and losing streaks shouldn’t affect an overall expectation about a team’s performance. In the case of Boston, the 60.5% represents the winning percentage at the end of the season, not their performance of a selected sample within it.

No one would think twice if a team went on a 6 game skid in the middle of June, and there is a statistical basis to this. Expecting a team to win 60.5% over the course of a season means just that, winning 60.5% of games over the course of an entire season. Boston is every bit as likely to win the American League East as they were eight days ago.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Bold Faced Prediction for the 2011 MLB Season: Florida Marlins Win the World Series

I admit I’m a week late in writing, but the contrarian inside me couldn’t stand to hear another writer/TV analyst tell me that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. What fun is the beginning of a new season if all you’re hearing is a reaffirmation of the conventional wisdom? Saying Boston is going to win is like saying owning land is a good investment, or that the Strokes like getting drunk. Reasonable and measured. But leave the safe bets to your mutual fund manager; it’s a new baseball season. With that in mind, you heard it here first – The Florida Marlins are going to win their third World Series this year. This is my boldfaced prediction for the 2011 MLB season.

The Phillies are still the class of the NL East. The reigning (times three) division champs stole the best pitcher on the free agent market and put together a rotation thought to only be possible if you managed a team in MLB The Show for Xbox. But even with their four aces, nothing is guaranteed. Halladay, Lee and Oswalt are all on the wrong side of 30. It’s not too much of a stretch to think that one of them (I’d bet Lee based on history) spends time on the DL this year. Offensively there are other questions. Chase Utley is hurt and maybe out all year, Jayson Werth is gone, and Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez have to be regression prone seeing as they were drafted in the 1970s. This is not the juggernaut Philadelphia offence of three years ago. And the Phillies bullpen is still the Phillies bullpen. This doesn’t mean they aren’t a good team, it just means that on April 4 it’s not unpossible to imagine a scenario where things break wrong and the Phils miss the playoffs.

The Phillies aren’t the only team standing in the Marlins’ way. The Braves are another team that can be expected to make a lot of noise in the NL East this year. But like every team, there are uncertainties. What happens if Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson start to show their age? Is Jair Jurrjens really going to come off (and stay off) the DL in mid April? Is Larry going to come back and hit like the Chipper of old? Do they have an option in centre field that can hit .200? You get the idea.

Is everything going to break wrong for the Phillies and Braves? Probably not, but could enough break wrong that the Fish sneak into the playoffs? Sure, it’s the wildcard era (sidebar: the Marlins first two World Series victories came as the Wild Card entrant).

The Marlins starting pitching has the potential to be very very good. Josh Johnson is as bona fide ace and could be the best pitcher in the division not named Roy Halladay or RA Dickey. Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are both better than we might think. They are both young (under 28), and coming off seasons in which their FIPs (fielding independent pitching- I’m admittedly very green with sabermetrics) were even lower than their already above league average ERA’s. Throw in Javier Vasquez, who can be one of the best pitchers in the league when no one expects anything out of him, and Chris Volstad whose numbers suggest he is very “Blantonesque” as a number 5 starter, and you have a Marlins’ rotation that could be as strong as their divisional rivals.

Offensively, the team has some breakout potential. Hanley Ramirez is still one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and if Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton continue to develop into the players that many in baseball think they can become, the Marlins will have a solid core in the middle of the lineup this year. Logan Morrison is another player that toils in relative obscurity, but could build on a rookie season that saw him post a .390 OBP (or a 369. wOBA; again with the sabermetrics ) to become a very valuable offensive asset. Sprinkle in a rebound year from Chris Coghlan (don’t expect one defensively now that he’s in CF) and a repeat of John Buck’s 2010 season and Florida will have itself a nice little offence.

This is not to say there aren’t questions surrounding Miami’s least favourite team (the Panthers don’t count because no one knows they exist). As good as Johnson is, he has been injury prone, the offense is still young and unproven, Vasquez could falter if he gets even a whiff of the Yankees, and if you’re a fan of anecdotal (but largely uninformative) evidence, the bullpen has already blown one lead this season. On top of all this, there is a reason I haven’t spoke about their defence, it probably won’t be good. But this is April; it’s a time to look at what could be, and not what will probably happen. So instead of hedging your bets on the Sox/Phillies/Yankees, take a shot with me on the Marlins. If it does happen, watching them play in October will be a lot more rewarding than watching the BoSox play the Phillies. If it doesn’t, odds are some other team will surprise us all. In any case, no one ever gets excited in baseball when exactly what’s supposed to happen does happen. So think bold now and rationally in August. Go Fish.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Jays Spring Training Observations

Jays Spring Training Notes

Brett Lawrie


Lawrie’s big spring is creating a debate (although admittedly I don’t know that anyone who makes decisions for the Jays is actually debating) that he is ready to start the year in Toronto. I have to think this is a bad idea for a few reasons. First off, there is that handy little CBA rule that states the clock on a player’s club controlled years don’t start ticking until the he has reached 170-something days on a Major League roster. Secondly, I know Lawrie is tearing it up, but think of the sample size; his well timed spring training hot streak doesn’t mean he is ready to face Major League pitching everyday for the next six months. Further to that point, I know people are saying he looks good at third base, but I have to think that it takes more than a couple weeks to become comfortable and proficient at a new position if you’re expected to play that position in the Major Leagues. Different story if you’re playing in my softball league. Give BLaw a month and a half in Las Vegas and if he is still killing it, there will be no question he is ready for the show.

Pitching Injuries

Injuries to Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco have (at least temporarily) opened up a couple slots in the Jays’ bullpen. It goes to show that depth really is never a bad thing. The bad news is that while Dotel should rebound quickly, according to Mike Wilner, Frank Francisco (one of the Jays better relief options) is on a more uncertain timetable, out with an undiagnosed shoulder injury. Gulp. Regardless of what happens to the injured relievers, I would like to see Jo-Jo Reyes go North with the team in some capacity. He is still only 26, has less than 200 big league innings to his name, and it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly touted prospect. He can start, pitch in relief, or take the now departed Brian Tallet’s job as swing man. Gambling on Reyes’s upside is a better move than handing the job to an older pitcher with a lower ceiling or a younger pitcher with minor league options left.

Jose Bautista and Defensive Alignment

While there has been plenty of discussion on what kind of offensive player Bautista will be moving forward, I am wondering what kind of defensive contributions he can make. We all know about the great arm, but the metrics suggest he has never been a plus defender at either third base or right field and a player turning 31 is most likely going to start regressing if he hasn’t already. Is it actually possible that playing Edwin Encarnacion at third with Bautista in the outfield (where he’s a bit better) is Toronto’s most efficient defensive alignment? Playing E5 at third, and Bautista in right would allow Juan Rivera to move to DH. This may be the most optimal situation seeing as it gets Rivera out of the field and moves Bautista to the position where he provides the most value. I’m not sure, but it’s something to argue about.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Boston Red Sox Offseason Review

It’s been a big offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Coming off a 90 win season, the AL East powerhouse was able to add two superstars (Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez) to their already formidable lineup. If that wasn’t enough to get Red Sox fans excited, the team also saw their biggest rival come up empty in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and give away their first round pick in next year’s draft (along with $30 million dollars) for a set up man. So while the acquisitions of Crawford and Gonzalez have lots of people talking, Boston’s improvements in 2011 should have more to do with some less publicized moving and shaking than their two big name signings.

There is no doubt that Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are premier players that would help any team, but what many people forget is that the 2011 Red Sox are also losing two premier players in their own right : Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. When you measure the net gains of Gonzalez and Crawford against the loss of Martinez and Beltre, the massive improvements start to look more like a wash. Between Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, Boston is losing: two .300 hitters, over 50 home runs, gold glove defence from Beltre and below average defence from Martinez. In adding Crawford and Gonzalez, the BoSox have gained two .300 hitters capable of 60 home runs, above average defence at both positions and 30+ stolen bases. Minus the stolen bases that Crawford provides, the acquisitions appear to merely offset Boston’s player loses. If we want to play the old sabremetrics card (and I almost always do): Beltre and Martinez combined for a WAR (wins above replacement) in 2010 of 9.9, while Gonzalez and Crawford combined for a WAR of 11.1, a gain of just over one victory per year.

Another problem in assessing the net value of transactions is determining how easily the players that have been lost can be replaced. While moving Kevin Youkilis to third base to replace Beltre doesn’t seem like much of a downgrade (if any), one challenge that Boston will face in 2011 is replacing a catcher as productive as Victor Martinez. Finding a left fielder or first baseman (Crawford and Gonzalez’s positions) that put up productive numbers is a far easier task than replacing a catcher who hits .300 with 20 home runs, even with Martinez’s defensive shortcomings. This year alone, the Sox had free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena and Lyle Overbay to pick from. In comparison, the best free agent catchers on the market: Russell Martin, John Buck and Yorvit Torrealba (gulp). So barring a major trade, the Red Sox look to be replacing Martinez with the platoon of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamachia, both of whom are far less offensively skilled and almost as equally defensively inept. The Sox may have been better off keeping Martinez and replacing either Crawford or Gonzalez with another player who is more effective than their alternatives at catcher.

This doesn’t mean the Red Sox won’t be better with Crawford and Gonzalez in the long term; both players are younger (than Martinez) and more consistent (than Beltre). This doesn’t mean that Boston won’t improve in 2011 either, I think they will. But here are the reasons why: Boston made two far less publicized free agent signings when they inked relievers Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. Jenks and Wheeler should upgrade a Red Sox bullpen that was vulnerable in 2010. The Red Sox can also expect full seasons from number three hitter Kevin Youkilis, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury and little big man Dustin Pedroia, all of whom were on the disabled list for significant amounts of time in 2010. Having these three regulars for a full season will improve Boston’s defence and offence. Oh and don’t forget that last year Josh Beckett and John Lackey were outpitched by Carlos Silva (look it up if you don’t believe me). While there has been much ink spilled on whether or not these two pitchers can ever regain their form, if one of them has a better year in 2011, it will give the Red Sox a very potent 1-2-3 at the top of their rotation. If both improve, they could have one of the leagues deepest starting staffs.

Offseason acquisitions are exciting. It’s hard not get jacked up when your team signs a power bat, or trades for a proven arm. Too often however, us baseball fans get lost in this excitement and commit the error of assuming improvement when our favourite team signs a big piece (see: Seattle Mariners’ Erik Bedard trade of 2007). What gets washed away in all our excitement is that a baseball offseason is not just measured by key acquisitions; it needs to be weighed against player losses, regressions and projected development. I am expecting a big year from the Boston Red Sox, I’m just not going to give Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford all the credit for it.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Albatross II?: What the Jays Shouldn't Do Now That Vernon is Gone

NO ONE saw this coming. When I received a message asking if I’d heard about Vernon Wells, I was confused as to what it meant. Did he get caught using PEDs? Did his wrist flare up and the Jays had to put him on the shelf already? Did he go on the bereavement list because his golden retriever died? I didn’t know why Vernon Wells was suddenly newsworthy, but the idea of him being traded seemed almost impossible. Now we’ve all heard what a horrible deal this is for the Angels and how Alex Anthopoulos is going to win executive of the year (as he should), but there was one element to the trade that I was not expecting. To me, the most surprising part of the Vernon Wells trade is how many people began suggesting the Jays use the money the team saved by selling its magic beans to the Angels on signing Jose Bautista long term.


Jose Bautista was without a doubt Toronto’s best offensive player in 2010, but coming off a career year is no time to sign a player to a long-term contract. If you don’t believe me just ask the Leafs (we can start with Jason Blake, but it’s a long list). The Jose Bautista scenario can play out several ways in 2011: He can regress to his career norms; he can level off but remain productive (something in 25-30 home run range, with corresponding drops in OBP and OPS would be nice); he can get injured; or he can repeat his 2010 performance. If the Jays decide not to negotiate a contract before the season, only if he repeats his 2010 (probably the most unlikely of the situations mentioned above) will they be in a worse position should they choose to negotiate with him after/ later on in the season.


On top of these risks, signing a player long-term is not the modus operandi for Toronto’s current front office team. And that’s a good thing. If you’re a Jays fan, what’s exciting about the Vernon Wells trade is how it will allow the team flexibility to add the pieces they need via free agency or trade when they are ready to contend. Tying up money in Jose Bautista right now could be needlessly spending while the team continues it’s rebuilding. If he is productive again this year, it may benefit the Jays to trade him midseason for prospects, or let him leave via-free agency to collect draft picks. Jose’s time may be now, but it isn’t Toronto’s just yet.


We also need to remember that Jose Bautista is not a spring chicken. He will play this season at age 30 and is two years younger than the star outfielder we just traded to the Angels. Coincidentally, if you read any analysis about the Wells trade, it will no doubt bring up the fact that outfielders in their mid-30s are very susceptible to steep decline, both offensively and defensively. After just getting released from the Wells albatross, the Jays should be thinking long and hard before committing big dollars to a player that will play the first year of his new contract at age 31.



The Vernon Wells trade can mean a lot of things for the Blue Jays moving forward, but one thing that it shouldn’t mean, is signing Jose Bautista to a multi-year contract extension before the 2011 season. Right now, Jose Bautista is in the best position he will ever be to negotiate with the smallest track record he will ever have. Does this mean Jose Bautista is going to be a worthless player? No, but I do think that no one is really sure what kind of player he is going to be in the next few years right now. And if what he has asked for in arbitration is any indication ($10.5 million), he won’t be signing for peanuts. I’m not saying the Jays necessarily need to say goodbye to their cleanup hitter, but I think they should relax, think about it, and not make their final decision just yet.