2012 National League Preview in 1,155 Words

NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East is beginning to look a lot like the ultra competitive American League East – four teams that should win more than they lose and one team you’d rather not think about. Washington (Gio Gonzalez) and Miami (Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle) both made significant offseason acquisitions, but until I know that Josh Johnson in Miami and Ryan Zimmerman in Washington, can stay off the DL, I am hesitant to think they can overtake Philadelphia or Atlanta. The Phillies took the NL East crown once again last year, despite a poor season from Ryan Howard and the usual time lost to injury by Chase Utley. Going into 2012, Howard and Utley will begin the season on the disabled list, leaving the Philadelphia offence without two of its better hitters. While the aging roster and declining offensive production makes it feel like the Phillies should be at the end of their rope, until one of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels are sidelined with a major injury, it’s hard to be against the Phills. I’ve done it before and learned my lesson, so going into 2012 I’m picking the Phillies to once again win the NL East.

NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
It has not been a good spring for the Cincinnati Reds. New closer Ryan Madson is out for the season and new ace Mat Latos is suffering from a strained calf, although this injury may be minor. While the Reds have signalled all in by trading for Latos and Sean Marshall, there are too many question marks for me to pick them as division winners. Outside of Latos, the effectiveness of Johhny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake is somewhat of an unknown. Can Scott Rolen stay healthy? What kind of season is Zack Cozart going to have? St. Louis should field a competitive team, but their offence, while potentially dangerous, is also pretty rickety and vulnerable to injury; Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal and David Freese have all lost significant time to injuries over the last two years. I think the Milwaukee Brewers are in a position to once again win the NL Central. While the offence did take a hit, Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel should be able to replace a fair bit of the production lost by Prince Fielder’s defection. Signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop should be a major defensive upgrade over Yuni Betancourt and I expect an even better season from Zack Greinke (2.56 xFIP verses 3.83 ERA), who pitched through some bad luck in 2011. Combined with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum the Brewers’ rotation posted the 2nd best starters’ xFIP (3.65) in the National League last year, while the bullpen posted an xFIP of 3.43, also good for second best. The NL Central is still the Brewers’ to lose.

NL West – Arizona Diamondbacks
For me, the NL West appears to be one of the most open divisions in baseball heading into 2012. For a team that has arguably the best position player and pitcher in the league in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the LA Dodgers really don’t have much else. The Rockies, now with more Michael Cuddyer, are poised for another middle of the road finish, unless some of their young pitchers (Alex White, Drew Pomeranz) take major strides very quickly. The Arizona Diamondbacks, last year’s division champs, return a roster primarily intact, with the addition of Trevor Cahill to the rotation. While Ian Kennedy (3.50 xFIP, 2.88 ERA) and Josh Collmenter may regress, paired with Daniel Hudson and Cahill, Arizona fields a decent enough starting rotation. Outside of Justin Upton and Miguel Montero, their offense is nothing special, but their complimentary pieces (Jason Kubel, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young, and Gerardo Perra) are probably better than anything the rest of the division is trotting out there. The song remains the same in San Francisco, where the pitching will be there, it’s just a question of how much offense the Giants’ can provide. Until San Fran shows that they are committed to playing Brandon Belt fulltime, it’s hard to get behind an offense that features, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and not much else. I’ll take the D-backs by a hair.

NL Wildcard – Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While most of the Cards’ key offensive pieces are major injury risks, St Louis should be able to hit enough to stay in contention. If these players go down for an extended period of time, the Cardinals’’ young arms (Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jason Motte), along with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia, will be counted on to keep them competitive. I am much higher on the Braves than many (Eric Karabell and Mark Simon of Baseball Today, both projected Miami to finish ahead of Atlanta) heading into 2012. Health is a major issue for the Braves. Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Chipper Jones are all key contributors with significant health issues heading into the season. With that said, the Braves are a deep team. Their pitching depth is no secret. Behind Hanson and Jurrjens, they have Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy, two pitchers who also had very successful 2011 seasons. They also have young arms on the way, in the form of Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. The lineup is also a better than most people are giving them credit for. Aside from Jones and Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Martin Prado all have the ability to be above average offensive players. Their bullpen is equally deep. Even if things go wrong, I think the Braves will find their way into the playoffs. Until Josh Johnson makes twenty starts for Miami, in think they are still on the outside looking in.

NL Rookie of the Year – Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
I can’t tell you who the 2012 NL ROY will be, but I can say that there is a very good chance that they have come out of the Cincinnati Reds farm system. It’s a wide open race. While Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yonder Alonso are all candidates, I’ll take Alonso based on the fact that playing for a non-contender means he should get the at bats to work through any growing pains and boost his counting stats (which worked out pretty well for Mark Trumbo last year).

NL MVP – Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Stanton is a beast that is ready to go off. He hit 34 ding dongs last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 50 this year. There may be better all around players in the NL (Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton may be more deserving), but if Stanton has a Jose Bautista like offensive year, the votes will likely go to him. Plus, he should get a tonne of RBIs hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

Don't Blame Eric

When Travis Snider got sent down today – my twitter feed exploded. At least as much as a person who follows 60 people’s feed can explode. It goes without saying that I’m new to twitter. In any case, there was a fair amount of frustration, sarcasm and or indignation – it’s hard to tell in 140 characters sometimes, on Snider being sent down. Now I am as bummed out as the next guy that Luchbox (see, I know that’s his nickname from twitter), won’t be starting the year in Toronto. He is a talented player with more upside than any of the left field candidates, but that doesn’t mean we should entirely write off Eric Thames either.

Much has been made about Eric Thames and what he can’t do. He is a poor left fielder, swings and misses too much and can’t get on base. Eric Thames is 25 years old. He has only played 95 Major League games. In those games he struck out too often, played a poor left field and didn’t take enough walks. He also slugged .456 and posted a .333 wOBA. Both of those numbers are better than what Colby Rasmus posted in his breakout (let’s hope it was a breakout) 2010 season. Last season Thames posted a higher walk rate than Snider (5.8 to 5.4) and according to Fangraphs comprehensive base running stat UBR, comparable value on the bases (2.4 to 1.4). Thames has never posted a minor league OBP of less than .360, and we should remember that defensive metrics usually require much more than a 95 game sample to determine a fielder’s true defensive value. That said, it would be hard to suggest Thames passed the “eye test” of defensive evaluation either last year.

The point here is not to suggest Thames is or will be a better player than Snider in the long run; only that it is possible, if things break right for Eric and wrong for Travis. As much as it sucks to see Snider get sent down, we shouldn’t take it out on Thames, by writing off a player who could be valuable, whether it’s for the Jays, or as a trade chip. The shitty thing about the situation is that it has become a dichotomy of one against the other. I’m bummed Snider isn’t playing, but that doesn’t mean I hate the idea of Thames playing either. Let’s give it a shot and see what happens. We always know where to find another left fielder if we need to.

2012 AL Predictions in 723 Words

Here are my quick and dirty American League Predictions for 2012.
Division Winners

AL East – New York Yankees

You never get fired for buying IBM, and this winter, IBM’s rotation got a whole lot better. Adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to a rotation that already includes CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova turned an organizational weakness into an organizational strength. The Yank’s offence should be as potent as ever (2nd in baseball with 867 runs scored) and it wouldn’t be crazy to see better years from Mark Teixeira (he had a line of .248/.341/.494 in 2011, his lowest since his rookie season) and Alex Rodriguez (who should be healthier). The bullpen should be stellar, especially if Raphael Soriano is pitching effectively – the prospect of using David Robertson in the seventh inning is a scary one for the rest of the AL East. And it’s always hard to bet against the team that can just go out and buy whatever it is they don’t have (maybe a catcher or a DH-type) at the trade deadline.

AL Central – Cleveland Indians

You gotta take some chances or these things all boring as hell to read. It’s easy to think the Tigers are going to run away with the division, but I’m not convinced. Sure, they signed Prince Fielder, but he is replacing the injured Victor Martinez, so the offensive upgrade should not be as drastic as many think. There is no way Jose Valverde is going to have anything close to the year he had in 2011, and the rest of their bullpen options are less than ideal. Kansas City is on the rise but I think their young pitching needs another year of seasoning before they can contend. Cleveland on the other hand, has a solid rotation that has the potential to be very good if Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to form and I expect Shin Soo-Choo to rebound from a down year. Combined with the Indians young players (Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis), and the fact they play in baseball’s easiest division, I say the Tribe upset Detroit and sneak into the playoffs.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A lot of people are down on the Angels’ offence. I’m not as bearish as most. The Halos are able to get above average production from their middle infielders - Erik Aybar and Howie/Howard Kendrick. If the team can employ Mike Trout, Alberto Callaspo and Mark Trumbo correctly (ie. not playing Trumbo everyday), combined with Albert Pujols and a potential return of Kendrys Morales, the offence should be significantly better. Combined with the Angels’ rotation, Los Angeles should come out on top of the AL West. Texas is very good team too, but until Yu Darvish (who they are counting on to replace CJ Wilson) establishes himself as a frontline starter and Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler prove they can stay off the disabled list, I wouldn’t bet against the Angels.

Wildcard - Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers

While these teams may have a few more question marks in my mind than the Angels and Yankees, they are still very, very good teams; even if there are injury concerns and Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard struggle to make the transition to the starting rotation. I am hesitant to think that the Rays or Blue Jays can hang with the Rangers and Red Sox. Tampa’s rotation is as good as anyone’s, but outside of Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and maybe Desmond Jennings, their offence is sporting some significant holes (shortstop, catcher) and features an absolute tonne of strikeout potential thanks to Carlos Pena and BJ Upton.

Rookie of the Year – Matt Moore, Tampa Rays

This award is the Tampa righty’s to lose. He has shown no reason (although admittedly in a small sample last season) that he can’t continue to be successful at the Major League level, even in baseball’s toughest division.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria, Tampa Rays

There are going to be a lot of players that have big offensive seasons this year in the American League. Longoria is going to be one of them. He is also going to be one of the only big hitters that plays stellar defence at a demanding position. The Rays should play well enough for him to secure the “winning matters” contingent of the vote.

What Could Go Wrong: 2012 Seattle Mariners

Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Seattle Mariners, that much, everybody knows. But what if things aren’t on their way to improving like we think they are? This weeks’ absolutely worst case scenario looks at the Seattle Mariners.

If anyone doubted Seattle’s commitment to rebuilding, the January trade of Michael Pineda to New York should leave no doubt that this team is not trying to win anything in 2012, and playing in a division that includes the Rangers and Angels, means they really shouldn’t be. Because Seattle isn’t expecting to contend in 2012, the only thing that could really hinder the team this year is a lack of development by players counted on to be cornerstones of the Mariners’ rebuild. Seattle is rich in pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), and while the team is not devoid of position player depth (Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez), they do lack projectable, high upside, middle of the order bats outside of Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

This January, the Mariners sent Michael Pineda, a top of the rotation talent with a solid rookie season already under his belt, to the Yankees with the idea that they could build their offense around Jesus Montero. While he does have the ability to become a middle of the order bat, there are some unanswered questions in his game. By some accounts, Montero appeared bored last year in the minor leagues (he slugged under .500 for the first time since 2008), and playing for a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily inspire focus. No one outside the clubhouse (like a random Canadian baseball fan taken to blogging...) really knows the extent of the problems, but if Montero does have issues related to focus or motivation, these problems may follow him to a team that wins 70 games for the next couple years.

There is also the issue of Montero’s ability to develop as a power hitter. By all accounts, Montero is a strong kid with power to all fields. If, for some reason however, that power doesn’t translate at Safeco Field, where Mariners brass are banking he will show power to the right field(the only place power hitters can exploit in Seattle), his on-base and contact skills may not be worth the price Seattle paid to acquire him. There is also some concern from scouts who believe that Montero‘s defence is not good enough to have him stick at catcher in the major leagues. A version of Montero that is used primarily as a DH and isn’t able to produce middle of the order power numbers will definitely lead to more questions than answers for Seattle over the next few years.

The Mariners’ other power bat of the future, Justin Smoak, has also failed to live up to the expectations that made him the centrepiece of the Cliff Lee trade two years ago. Smoak is still only twenty five years old and has suffered a rash of injuries and personal setbacks (he lost his father last season), that suggest it is too early to write him off yet. With this in mind, his performance since arriving in the big leagues in 2010 has not been stellar. In 886, plate appearances – not the smallest of sample sizes, he has posted a slash line of .227/.318/.385.

The Mariners have young pitching to spare. It’s why they traded Michael Pineda, and it’s why they can absorb the blow if someone like Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen doesn’t pan out as they hoped. 2012 won’t be Seattle’s year, but if Justin Smoak or Jesus Montero aren’t able to develop into middle of the order power bats the team can pair with Dustin Ackley (who needs to avoid a sophomore slump of his own), the team may need to re-evaluate and consider trading another arm (maybe eve Felix Hernandez) and another couple years of losing before they are once again competitive in the AL West.

What Could Go Wrong: Atlanta Braves

If I’ve learned anything from Fox News, it’s that sensationalism plays big. I’ve also learned that nothing gets people’s attention better than worst case scenarios. The kind of coverage that screams loudly that something COULD happen, however unlikely it may be. So in the spirit of Fox News and in liu of a measured analysis (which most spring previews at least try for), I thought I would change it up by over-reacting and looking at an everything-goes- wrong, worst case scenario for a few teams around the Major Leagues. First on the docket, the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves were a playoff team up until the last day of the regular season, and they come into 2012 with the roster primarily intact. A lot of things didn’t break right for Atlanta in 2011, but the 2012 season also brings with it some unanswered questions, namely, can the team stay healthy enough to compete.

In 2011, Jason Heyward’s sophomore season was plagued by some combination of injuries and underperformance. Now while there is reason to believe that a healthy Jayson Heyward can build on his 2010 rookie season, there are questions as to whether or not he will stay healthy, as Heyward appears to be building a reputation as injury prone. Without Heyward, the heart of Atlanta’s order is overly reliant on the aging Chipper Jones, strikeout machine Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann. Entering the twilight of his career, Jones’ production has begun to fall off, and McCann, who is quietly putting together a great career of his own (he’s slugged at least .450 every year since ‘06), will only play 120-130 games a year to stay fresh and avoid wear and tear. Between Heyward, Jones and McCann, the Braves will need things to break right to ensure their middle of the order bats stay on the field for the majority of the year. If they don’t, it will get pretty frustrating watching Dan Uggla strikeout in 25% of his at bats.

While the lineup contains question marks, the biggest uncertainties for the Braves come from the pitching staff. On the surface, the Braves have a loaded staff, with more reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. But aside from their depth, Atlanta could face some obstacles. Ace Tommy Hanson‘s torn rotator cuff and seemingly endless DL stints are concerning. Already sidelined briefly this spring with a concussion, Hanson has only started over 22 games once in the last 3 seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees limited action this year. Number two starter Tim Hudson is facing concerns of his own, as he turns 38 this summer and attempts to come back from off season back surgery. Combine Hudson and Hanson’s potential to miss time with All-Star Jair Jurrjens potential to regress (his xFIP was over a run higher than his ERA in 2011), and Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland, the Braves’ rotation could end up thinner than it appears in 2012.

When it comes to the back end of the bullpen, no one was better than Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. The downside however, is that almost no one pitched as many innings as Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Freddi Gonzalez’s usage of the duo was heavily criticized he but he could very well be run out of town if they are unable to repeat their rookie performances, or even worse, blow out their arms. Let’s hope Gonazalez doesn’t turn into Dusty Baker version 2.0.

So there you have it, an everything that could possibly go wrong outlook on the Atlanta Braves. Not a realistic, thorough, or measured assessment (that would include things like Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn and the ability of Vizcaino and Teheran to step into the rotation), but one that was fast, quick and might leave you more worried than you should be. Kind of like how you feel after watching Fox News.