2011 Playoffs: 5 Players I’m Excited to Watch

The 2011 playoffs start tomorrow, and for a non MLB-TV subscribing Canadian like myself, that means I will be treated to watching baseball players I don’t often get to see. Call it lack of commitment, ignorance or east coast bias; there are teams and games I just don’t get to fully appreciate during the regular season. Here are some of the players I’m most looking forward to getting a closer look at.

Matt Moore – Tampa Bay Rays

Yes, he plays in the same division as the Blue Jays, but as of now Moore has only pitched 9.1 innings in his major league career, so I should be absolved from not knowing much about the lefty. In that 9.1 innings, Moore has 15 strikeouts. By all accounts Moore has electric stuff and could be a difference maker if the Rays should choose to deploy him (that in itself may be an interesting storyline too). Josh Beckett’s coming out party in the 2003 playoffs was one of the most exciting elements of the Marlins’ World Series run. Moore could be this year’s Josh Beckett.

Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

I am told by many baseball writers that Upton is one of the most underappreciated superstars in the game. Upton can run (20 steals), hit (.369 OBP/.529 SLG) and play defence (a + 8.2UZR rating this year). The talent’s of players that excel at every aspect of the game cannot be justly appreciated by looking at statistics alone (no matter how high his WAR maybe). Here’s hoping the rest of the Arizona lineup can hit enough to prevent Upton from being intentionally walked 10 times so we can all see the superstar he is.

CJ Wilson – Texas Rangers

Wilson has been a very good starting pitcher for the Rangers over the last two years. He is also a free agent come the end of the World Series. Wilson will play next season at age 31 and is hitting the free agent market with only two years of starting experience under his belt. I’m curious to see how Wilson performs. It may be a small sample but his playoff performance will go a long way to shape the narrative and perception of Wilson as a free agent to be. I know, it sounds crazy but some teams are still suckers for “a proven winner”.

Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers

One would think I’d be able to pay close enough attention to someone that stars on a team two hours west of home. That person has probably not been subjected to the same TV blackouts that I have. Yes, he can’t run or play the field (despite all of this, he has still accumulated a WAR of 7.3 this year), but the man can do some serious yard work. Miggy’s career OBP is .395, and in 8 full seasons, he has never hit fewer than 30 HR’s or slugged under .512. Aside from Albert Pujols, Cabrera may be the most consistent hitter in baseball. It’s going to be fun to watch Cabrera terrorize CC Sabathia and the back end of the Yankee bullpen.

Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies

Everyone knows that the Halladay/Lee/Hamels trio at the top of the rotation can neutralize any offence. The question of late has become, whether or not the Phillies can hit enough to ensure their star pitchers efforts do not go to waste. In years past, Howard has been shut down by good left handed pitchers. If Howard can somehow reverse his fortunes against lefties (his career OPS is 272 points higher against righties) for just a couple of weeks, the Phillies may be unstoppable.

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept 23, 2011

What RBIs Can Tell Us

“Hey I guess they’re right. Seniors citizens, while slow, and dangerous behind the wheel, can still serve a purpose.” – Lloyd Christmas on the value of old people

RBIs are like Lloyd Christmas’ assessment of senior citizens. They are very limited, but if you think about them in the right light, they can still provide some value. They are not valuable predictors of future performance or accurate ways to describe a players past performance. RBIs are wholly dependent on people getting on base in front of the batter credited with them. That means they are something the hitter credited (or not credited) with the RBI cannot control. That’s why this year’s Blue Jay cleanup hitter Adam Lind (86 RBI) drives in more runs than leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar (48 RBI), despite Escobar’s far superior offensive season (higher OBP, wOBA). While RBIs may not be the best way of evaluating players' past performance or future value, they can serve a purpose as a descriptive stat. When taken as such, RBI can help tell the story of a single game. Knowing Chase Utley had 3 RBIs in the 7th inning of last night’s tie game (even if he hit a squibbler down the line), does more than saying he slugged .667 last night. I don’t see Win Probability Added making its way into the laurels of common vocabulary anytime soon either. RBIs don’t provide insight into a hitter’s true performance or ability, but they can provide some (albeit very limited) context into what happened on the field.

Comeback Player of the Year Award

Like core values and truths in post- enlightenment, western society; how we interpret the Comeback Player of the Year Award is a personal choice. Should it go to a player that is coming back from a major injury? Or should it go to a player coming back from a terrible year? My vote/interpretation goes to the latter. For the most part, players who that get hurt are expected to return to form and get back to their pre-injury level of performance. Players coming off of terrible years are a little more complicated. They are often seen as washed up or too old (Jim Thome), one time overachievers, or just not very good (Carlos Pena before 2007). These are the players I want to see winning comeback player of the year. Their stories are more interesting, and that’s what the Comeback Player Award is all about: the story. I don’t know why Brad Lidge couldn’t get his head right in 2006/2007 but however he went from frazzled late inning headcase to ace reliever is a much more compelling story than the guy who was good, blew out his arm, missed a year and came back to be the exact same player he was before (Chris Carpenter I’m looking at you...). You know how it goes with these interpretive awards: one man, one opinion.

Moneyball Movie

I’m going to spare you one more opinion on the apparently controversial Moneyball movie. What I do want to say is that we should try to remember that Moneyball is a movie, and shouldn’t be evaluated as anything more. Let’s not use it as an argument either for or against the use of statistical analysis in baseball. Enjoy the movie!

Jerkball 2012: Acquire Logan Morrison?

The Alex Anthopoulos led Blue Jays have had a knack for freeing talented but “troubled” players from the doghouses of other Major League teams. Acquiring a promising young player for what is often perceived as less than market value has recently been dubbed (read: it has surfaced once or twice as a twitter hash tag) Jerkball: the new market inefficiency. In terms of results, it’s been so far so good with Yunel Escobar, who is proving to be one of the better (and relatively inexpensive) shortstops in the league. While the jury is still out on Colby Rasmus, his upside has lead to many analysts calling the trade a win for the Blue Birds. Now keeping in mind that my trade musings are entirely theoretical (given that I know nothing of the asking price, availability, finances, negotiations, and everything else that is needed to make a major league trade), I think I have found the Blue Jay’s next Jerkball trade target.


The latest player to tweet his way out of favour with his current club is the Florida Marlins’ Logan Morrison. Since his August 13th demotion (and subsequent recall), Morrison has hit the club with a grievance that claims he was disciplined (demoted) without just cause. Whatever Morrison may or may not be tweeting about, he is barely 24 years old and sits second on the Marlins (among players with 100 PA) in HR, slugging percentage and wOBA. It’s also important to remember that this is Morrison underachieving. Blue Jay fans (myself included), love Adam Lind and Eric Thames. Lind and Thames are players you root for to succeed. The problem however, is that rooting for these guys to succeed doesn’t seem to help them get on base. Lind (.298) and Thames (.308) are both getting on base at well below league average rates. Acquiring Morrison would be a means of upgrading either position given that he possesses better on-base skills, comparable power, and most importantly, a higher ceiling.


As a left fielder, Morrison has a lot in common with Eric Thames. Neither are considered league average defenders at this point in their careers. However, Morrison has yet to show that he is the same defensive liability at first base, a position he played consistently in the minor leagues (Morrison has since been moved off first base to accommodate slugger Gaby Sanchez). Splitting Morrison’s time between left field, first base and DH would minimize the negative impact of Morrison’s defence. Playing Morrison would also limit Eric Thames (LF/DH) exposure to left handed pitching (.220 AVG/.250 OBP, albeit in a limited sample size), and allow the club to play him in situations where he is more likely to succeed (against right handed pitching).


Right now, Lind, Thames and Morrison have all been 0.7 WAR players this year. Last year, Baseball America and Project Prospect both had Morrison listed as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball. The all-knowing Keith Law had Morrison come in at #21. Let’s hope that Adam Lind can rebound, and hey as long as were hoping, why not hope that Eric Thames can become an average Major League regular. Morrison may not be available, and if he is, his asking price may be too high, but in the spirit of the Jerkball movement, why not take a chance on a player who is young, unhappy and has the unrealized potential that the Alex Anthopoulos run Blue Jays like so much.

Limited Exposure: Why the Rangers Should be Careful with Their Young Starting Pitchers

As we enter the final weeks of September, the Texas Rangers are in contention once again. With a 2.5 game lead on Los Angeles, the Rangers are fighting for their second AL West title in as many years. During this fight, Texas will be relying on three young starting pitchers in Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. As the year moves on, innings limits and shutdown dates are often discussed. However, Texas is in a position where limiting the workload of its young starting pitchers will benefit the Rangers now as well as down the road.

One through four, the Texas rotation is as strong as any in the American League. As of September 5, CJ Wilson, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison all have ERA’s under 4.15 (Holland’s is the highest at 4.13) and xFIP’s under 4.00 (Ogando’s is the highest at 3.95). While the New York and Boston rotations are posting similar numbers, Clay Buchholz return is still up in the air. Down the road in the Bronx, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon (who have contributed to the Yankee rotations’ similar xFIP and ERA numbers) look like they may be turning back into pumpkins. But like New York and Boston, the Texas starters have their own unanswered question: How will their young arms hold up down the stretch?

The question of how to handle young pitchers on playoff bound teams is a contentious one. There is a fairly large body of research that suggests innings limits and shutdown dates have not been as affective as some have suggested (http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id155.html). With this in mind, increased workloads could still be an issue for Texas starters. Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison all threw under 100 innings last year, and while Harrison (in 2007 at AA) and Holland (with the Rangers in 2009) have thrown over 100 innings once in their careers, they have already exceeded their career highs by 40 innings. That number should shoot to around 60+ additional innings (150 for Ogando) as Texas marches through September. Even if you don’t come from the Tom Verducci School of Pitcher Management, there is still risk with having young pitchers significantly increase their workload. In the case of the Rangers three young starters, they will be close to doubling it. Injury risk aside, fatigue may be a real concern for Ranger pitchers moving forward. Alexi Ogando’s August and September ERA’s of 7.14 and 4.50 are the highest of any months this year. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland also saw their highest monthly ERA’s in August. As we move deeper into September, the quality of innings 160 through 190 may not be the same as innings 1 through 100.

This July, Texas acquired some of the best arms on the market (in Koji Uehara and Mike Adams) to accompany Neftali Feliz at the back of the Ranger bullpen. Both pitchers are in the top 30 relievers in Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If deployed, these relievers can affectively shorten a game to six innings. Given fatigue on young arms, and the (newly acquired) quality of the Texas relief corps, the most optimal way to manage the Ranger pitching staff may be to limit their young starters to five (or six innings depending on pitch count) max. This should limit the amount of poor performance the Rangers see from fatigued starters late in the season, increasing their chances of both holding on to their AL West lead, and winning games in the playoffs.

Relying on three potentially exhausted starting pitchers in a pennant race is not an ideal situation. But if Texas can limit the amount of innings these pitchers see, it will help them win now, and win later. Because whether or not there is an increased risk of injury, tired pitchers throwing meaningful innings is never a good thing.

Notes from the Under-Mound: Sept, 3, 2011

Yankee/Red Sox Games Take Too Long
I thought I liked baseball, but that was before I watched the Sox/Yankee game on Thursday night. I know I’m about the 10 millionth person to complain about the length of these games, but I’m also the 10 millionth person who is right about it. I get that drawing walks and working a count can take up more time, but that has nothing to do with the 35 plus seconds (yeah, I started timing) in between pitches. Can the Yankees and Red Sox please watch how Jose Bautista (who just happens to lead the league in OBP), operates in between pitches? The guy is as patient as anyone but instead of strolling through as much foul territory as possible in between pitches, he keeps one foot in the box most of the time. I know Blue Jays games tend to have fewer A-list celebs sitting behind home plate than Yankee/Red Sox tilts, but for the love of God, stay in the damn batter’s box.


MVP Watch: If Jose Bautista Isn’t Playing for a Contender, Neither is Justin Verlander
Every year I promise myself I’m not going to argue with my friends about MVP races, and every year I get sucked back in. It’s exactly like Michael Corleone trying to get out of the family business... exactly the same. I don’t want to go on some long diatribe about how to interpret what “valuable” means, but I will say that it seems preposterous to suggest the Tigers “contention” makes Verlander a better candidate than Bautista. The Blue Jays are as good a team (if not better) than Detroit. The Tigers, who play in a far weaker division, have still only managed to win 7 more games than the Blue Jays. If you don’t think playing 57 games a year against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, is substantially more difficult than 57 games against the Royals, Indians and Twins, I don’t know what to tell you. The Jays and Jose Bautista in the AL Central are playoff contenders, just like the Tigers in the AL East are nothing more than a .500 team.

Rooting for Lind
Everyone in Toronto is rooting for Adam Lind to succeed, but as we enter September, we may have reason to worry about the smiley Blue Jay. As Jay’s/Sportsnet blogger Tao of Stieb notes, in the last 253 games (save one hot month) Lind’s offensive numbers are eerily similar to the Arizona Diamondbacks first basemen’s. Has the ghost of Lyle Overbay come back to haunt Adam Lind? This year Lind’s WAR is 0.5 and we have seen his AVG and OBP dip down into the .250/.290 range. Looking for any reason I can to hope Lindy can break out of it, let’s remember he is hitting .253 against LHP, a year after he posted an abhorrent .117 clip. His BABIP is a tick low at .264 and despite a WAR of 0.5, I don’t think he is the defensive liability at first base that Fangraphs does (he has a +4 Total Zone rating according to Baseball-Reference.com). His line drive percentage is also right where it was when he had his breakout 2009 season. He still needs to take more walks but let’s not stick the proverbial fork in Lind yet, even if it’s just because we all like him so much.