The Favourite - Philadelphia Phillies
Far and away the best team in the NL East, the two time National League Champs are still the favourite to win both their division and the National League. With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the Phils are also the sentimental choice for Blue Jays fans that are realistic about their own teams 2010 possibilities. In the last few years the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the upper echelon of MLB teams, so to be division favourites is not enough anymore, the Phils are trying to hang with and beat the Yankees and Red Sox every year. With that in mind, the Phillies have a few holes that the other super powers do not. The Philadelphia bullpen was a mess in 2009 but I expect Brad Lidge to rebound; he was struggling in Houston when he was traded to the Phillies two years ago and he responded by having one of the most dominant seasons ever by a relief pitcher. The signing of Danys Baez should also help fortify the relief corps. The starting rotation behind Halladay also contains question marks: can Cole Hamels bounce back? Can J.A. Happ continue to improve (and contribute during the playoffs) and can Jamie Moyer stave off death long enough to complete a 40th season in the major leagues? Many baseball people suggest that Cole Hamels was particularly unlucky last year, citing strong peripheral stats (a similar strikeout to walk ratio as his breakout 2007 season and an extremely high opponents batting average on balls in play), on top of this, pitching behind Roy Halladay can only have a positive effect (just ask A.J. Burnett). A return to form by Hamels and continued improvement by Happ is likely and should solidify a rotation that in a worst case scenario can be put on the shoulders of one pitcher (Doc is that good). The offence is one of the best in the majors, and should only be solidified by the addition of Placido Polanco. Don't be surprised however if you see a regression by Raul Ibanez (age) and Jayson Werth (who is coming off a career year). Make no mistake this Phillies team is strong and any questions they have are the questions of a championship caliber team not a team that may or may not win the NL East.
The Challengers
Atlanta Braves
After an unprecedented run, 2010 will be Bobby Cox's last season managing in the major leagues, and this makes the Braves a sentimental pick for many people around baseball. In 2009 the Braves had one of the best rotations in baseball, and despite an offseason trade of Javier Vazquez the rotation is still one of the team's strengths. Even with Vazquez gone, the development of Atlanta's young hurlers Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson should offset the loss and allow the rotation to pitch the way it did in 2009. In the bullpen, many questioned the Braves decision to sign 39-year-old Billy Wagner (only a year removed from Tommy John surgery) to close, although his supporters point out that he did look good late last year with Boston. The offence also has a few question marks: Chipper Jones has vowed to retire if he can't elevate his game above its 2009 level and the production the Braves can extract from Troy Glaus (injury) and Jason Heyward (inexperience) is yet to be determined. Despite these uncertainties I expect Bobby Cox to pull the rabbit out of his hat one last time and keep the Tomahawk Choppers competitive in 2010.
New York Mets
There is no team in the major leagues more dysfunctional than the New York Mets. This offseason, headlines about the Mets included their very questionable acquisitions (they actually traded FOR Gary Matthews Jr. and bid against themselves for Jason Bay), their failed negotiations with several free agent catchers (Bengie Molina, Yorvit Torreabla) and very public arguments about whether or not it was ok for Carlos Beltran to go under the knife. When all the dust had settled, the Mets still had no one to start behind Johan Santana and an offence that does not play well to their cavernous home ballpark. The Mets are an expensive team so I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow stay in the race, but I will be equally unsurprised if they melt down yet again.
Florida Marlins
With the signing of Josh Johnson, the Marlins have assured their fans that they will not turn into the southern version of the Montreal Expos and in Hanley Ramirez the Marlins have one of the most exciting and dynamic offensive players in the major leagues. While the Marlins have more bright spots than they have had in recent years (Cody Ross, Chris Coghlan, Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco) but they made need one more year for players like Anibal Sanchez, Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez to develop before they can mount a strong challenge in the NL East.
Maybe Next Year
Washington Nationals
For the last few years, the Nationals have consistently been the worst team in the major leagues. That may change this year. They will still be awful and finish last in the NL East, but they may not be the worst team in baseball. Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham form a respectable middle of the lineup but Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and John Lannan at the top of the rotation spells trouble for the Nats in 2010.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
2010 NL Central Preview
The Favorite
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards are the NL Central favourites for 4 reasons: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter and Wainwright are dominant the top of the rotation, while Pujols and Holliday anchor the middle of the Cards lineup. After that it comes down to whatever manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan can milk out of the rest of the roster. Luckily for Cardinals fans, the coaching staff has a pretty good record of turning Kyle Loshe into sugar (why else would they sign Brad Penny?). The recent signing of Felipe Lopez should help in stabilizing the offence and questions about the back end of the rotation and bullpen are minor enough that it should not hinder the Cards from repeating as division champs
The Contenders
Chicago Cubs
The 2009 season was somewhat of a disaster for the Cubs. Jim Hendry was the only person on the planet who believed the two angriest people in baseball - Lou Pinella and Milton Bradley - could get along with each other. Geovany Soto was hit with the dreaded sophomore jinx and the stocky backstop took a step backwards, while Alfonso Soriano lived up to his contract in much the same manner as Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has. The Cubs have added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to shore up their outfield and I expect Mike Fontenot to have a better season than last year in the Cubs infield (he hit almost 40 points lower than his 2008 average). Last year’s disaster season still yielded 83 wins for the Cubs, so with Mad Milton out of the picture there is no reason to believe the Cubs won’t be in the thick of the race this year as well.
Milwaukee Brewers
Bernie Brewer better invest in a good pair of overalls, because with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun socking dingers, Bernie will be wearing out the seat of his pants going down the slide at Miller Park every time the Brew Crew hit a home run. Along with Braun and Fielder, I expect improved power numbers from Corey Hart and third baseman Casey McGehee. However there are still some question marks in the Brewers lineup (Gregg Zaun is their starting catcher) and like many teams, the Brewers will go as far as their pitching can take them. I expect Doug Davis, Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan to pitch to their league average levels, but if Yovani Gallardo can improve and Manny Para can get his ERA under six the Brewers can stay in the race.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are this year’s sexy pick for surprise contender in the NL and I can see why they are such an alluring pick. The team is fairly strong offensively – the only major question mark is center field, where the Reds will most likely start rookie Drew Stubbs. While regression could be a problem for veterans such as Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez and Orlando Cabrera, young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should continue to improve on their 2009 seasons. Veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo (who recorded a CD with the same name as my blog) should keep the pressure off promising young Reds starters Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, and Johnny Cueto. This makes the Reds just as dangerous (although more unproven) as the Brewers and Cubs in challenging for the division title.
Maybe Next Year
Houston Astros
Carlos Lee is still hitting baseballs as hard as he hits the clubhouse spread, and that is a good thing for the Astros. What is not a good thing for the Astros is Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon were their biggest free agent signings this offseason (no offence Pedro Feliz). Houston’s pitching is still below where it needs to be to contend in the NL Central in 2010.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Well, maybe not next year, maybe two years. But hey, PNC Park is gorgeous.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards are the NL Central favourites for 4 reasons: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter and Wainwright are dominant the top of the rotation, while Pujols and Holliday anchor the middle of the Cards lineup. After that it comes down to whatever manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan can milk out of the rest of the roster. Luckily for Cardinals fans, the coaching staff has a pretty good record of turning Kyle Loshe into sugar (why else would they sign Brad Penny?). The recent signing of Felipe Lopez should help in stabilizing the offence and questions about the back end of the rotation and bullpen are minor enough that it should not hinder the Cards from repeating as division champs
The Contenders
Chicago Cubs
The 2009 season was somewhat of a disaster for the Cubs. Jim Hendry was the only person on the planet who believed the two angriest people in baseball - Lou Pinella and Milton Bradley - could get along with each other. Geovany Soto was hit with the dreaded sophomore jinx and the stocky backstop took a step backwards, while Alfonso Soriano lived up to his contract in much the same manner as Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has. The Cubs have added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to shore up their outfield and I expect Mike Fontenot to have a better season than last year in the Cubs infield (he hit almost 40 points lower than his 2008 average). Last year’s disaster season still yielded 83 wins for the Cubs, so with Mad Milton out of the picture there is no reason to believe the Cubs won’t be in the thick of the race this year as well.
Milwaukee Brewers
Bernie Brewer better invest in a good pair of overalls, because with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun socking dingers, Bernie will be wearing out the seat of his pants going down the slide at Miller Park every time the Brew Crew hit a home run. Along with Braun and Fielder, I expect improved power numbers from Corey Hart and third baseman Casey McGehee. However there are still some question marks in the Brewers lineup (Gregg Zaun is their starting catcher) and like many teams, the Brewers will go as far as their pitching can take them. I expect Doug Davis, Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan to pitch to their league average levels, but if Yovani Gallardo can improve and Manny Para can get his ERA under six the Brewers can stay in the race.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are this year’s sexy pick for surprise contender in the NL and I can see why they are such an alluring pick. The team is fairly strong offensively – the only major question mark is center field, where the Reds will most likely start rookie Drew Stubbs. While regression could be a problem for veterans such as Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez and Orlando Cabrera, young hitters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should continue to improve on their 2009 seasons. Veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo (who recorded a CD with the same name as my blog) should keep the pressure off promising young Reds starters Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, and Johnny Cueto. This makes the Reds just as dangerous (although more unproven) as the Brewers and Cubs in challenging for the division title.
Maybe Next Year
Houston Astros
Carlos Lee is still hitting baseballs as hard as he hits the clubhouse spread, and that is a good thing for the Astros. What is not a good thing for the Astros is Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon were their biggest free agent signings this offseason (no offence Pedro Feliz). Houston’s pitching is still below where it needs to be to contend in the NL Central in 2010.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Well, maybe not next year, maybe two years. But hey, PNC Park is gorgeous.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
2010 NL West Preview
The Favorite
Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite losing several key players to free agency (Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson) and one to a lack of interest in baseball (Manny Ramirez). This is still the Dodgers division to lose. They have a young core of hitters in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and James Loney that compliment veteran hitters like Ramierz, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake well. While the rotation lacks a true ace (it is very possible that Clayton Kershaw could prove that statement wrong this year), the Dodgers rotation does have depth. The bullpen is also strength as Jonathan “brick house” Broxton has quickly become a shutdown closer. Two keys for the Dodgers in repeating as division champs are how quickly Russ Martin can recover from injury and if Vicente Padilla can be the same pitcher he was after the Dodgers acquired him late last season.
The Contenders
Colorado Rockies
The only reason there isn’t more discussion of Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez is that no one can spell his name correctly (this is also the reason more Rockies fans don’t have his jersey). The lanky, fire-balling righty is a dominant pitcher with a ton of upside and continues to improve. If Jimenez, Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa can pitch as well as they did last year (a return to form from Jeff Francis would be gravy), Troy Tulowitzki and the thin air at Coors field will take care of the rest.
San Francisco Giants
Offence. Just get some offence.
Arizona Diamondbacks
After a disappointing 2009, the D-backs could be poised for a winning season in 2010 and may surprise some people. If things break right for the D-Backs, don’t be surprised if they are contenders. That being said, much of the team’s success hinges on many unknowns. While the lineup was solidified with the addition of Adam Laroche, will Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds continue to develop? Can Conor Jackson return to form after playing only 30 games in 2009? Will Chris Young ever hit over .210? The rotation could have one of the best one two punches in the game if Brandon Webb (paired with Dan Haren) can return to form after major surgery. There are also questions about Edwin Jackson (who faded badly in the second half of 2009) and Ian Kennedy at the back end of the rotation. The signing of new closer Brandon Lyon (remember him Jays fans?) was also heavily scrutinized this offseason. In a competitive NL West the odds may be against them, but I am not ready to count Arizona out yet.
Maybe Next Year
San Diego Padres
Don’t despair Padres fans. With Jed Hoyer at the helm there is also reason to hope. If Chris Young, Heath Bell or Adrian Gonzalez are traded, Hoyer is the man to make a deal that is right for the Friars. The Padres also have acquired some high ceiling prospects (pitcher Clayton Richard) that should start to contribute sooner rather than later. In the meantime though, other than the above-mentioned players Tony Gwynn (junior of course) is one of the more recognizable faces on the 2010 Padres. Yikes.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite losing several key players to free agency (Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson) and one to a lack of interest in baseball (Manny Ramirez). This is still the Dodgers division to lose. They have a young core of hitters in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and James Loney that compliment veteran hitters like Ramierz, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake well. While the rotation lacks a true ace (it is very possible that Clayton Kershaw could prove that statement wrong this year), the Dodgers rotation does have depth. The bullpen is also strength as Jonathan “brick house” Broxton has quickly become a shutdown closer. Two keys for the Dodgers in repeating as division champs are how quickly Russ Martin can recover from injury and if Vicente Padilla can be the same pitcher he was after the Dodgers acquired him late last season.
The Contenders
Colorado Rockies
The only reason there isn’t more discussion of Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez is that no one can spell his name correctly (this is also the reason more Rockies fans don’t have his jersey). The lanky, fire-balling righty is a dominant pitcher with a ton of upside and continues to improve. If Jimenez, Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa can pitch as well as they did last year (a return to form from Jeff Francis would be gravy), Troy Tulowitzki and the thin air at Coors field will take care of the rest.
San Francisco Giants
Offence. Just get some offence.
Arizona Diamondbacks
After a disappointing 2009, the D-backs could be poised for a winning season in 2010 and may surprise some people. If things break right for the D-Backs, don’t be surprised if they are contenders. That being said, much of the team’s success hinges on many unknowns. While the lineup was solidified with the addition of Adam Laroche, will Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds continue to develop? Can Conor Jackson return to form after playing only 30 games in 2009? Will Chris Young ever hit over .210? The rotation could have one of the best one two punches in the game if Brandon Webb (paired with Dan Haren) can return to form after major surgery. There are also questions about Edwin Jackson (who faded badly in the second half of 2009) and Ian Kennedy at the back end of the rotation. The signing of new closer Brandon Lyon (remember him Jays fans?) was also heavily scrutinized this offseason. In a competitive NL West the odds may be against them, but I am not ready to count Arizona out yet.
Maybe Next Year
San Diego Padres
Don’t despair Padres fans. With Jed Hoyer at the helm there is also reason to hope. If Chris Young, Heath Bell or Adrian Gonzalez are traded, Hoyer is the man to make a deal that is right for the Friars. The Padres also have acquired some high ceiling prospects (pitcher Clayton Richard) that should start to contribute sooner rather than later. In the meantime though, other than the above-mentioned players Tony Gwynn (junior of course) is one of the more recognizable faces on the 2010 Padres. Yikes.
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