Thursday, June 21, 2012

One Night In Oakland





Two weeks ago while we were on the road, the band had an off day in between Portland and San Francisco. When the band is on the road in the US, Max and I make a point to try and take in as many games as we can. Touring Canada is wonderful, but our home and native land doesn’t offer the same bevy of minor and professional sporting options the United States does. So with a day off in the Bay Area, we were primed to watch some Major League Baseball. Now like everyone else in Northern California, we wanted to see if the more competitive, more centrally located, San Francisco Giants were at home. Like most trips to Oakland, it began with someone uttering the phrase “sadly, the Giants aren’t in town”. With the Giant’s on the road for the week, Max and I happily started planning our trip to the Oakland Coliseum. What our ensuing adventure lacked in the usual contemporary ballpark amenities, it made up for in originality, leaving us with one of our most unique ballpark experiences to date, and a valuable lesson about our sports fandom.

In order to beat traffic, Max and I decided to take the subway from San Fran (where we were staying) across the Bay into Oakland for game two of the midweek A’s/Rangers series. When we got on the train, we started to chat up some of the local commuters, asking about where to find a sportsbar to watch the basketball game (it was game 5 of the Eastern Finals) and have a beer before the A’s started. The locals laughed us off, warning that there was nothing around the ballpark and that we should head straight into the stadium. Thinking this was just the attitude of the yuppie, west bay San Franciscans’, we shrugged it off and figured we would find a place when we got off the train.

When we got off the train, we realized that the San Franciscans’ were actually understating the Coliseum neighborhood. Connecting the stadium to the subway station was a barbwire covered concrete walkway that ran fifty feet above the ground - right from the station to the Coliseum gates. Underneath the bridge was a completely empty parking lot and some abandoned, graffiti covered shipping yards that stretched as far as the eye could see. It wasn’t that there was no sports bar in the area, there was no organic life in the area. Standing on the bridge, I couldn’t help but feel as if I was in a scene from a post-apocalyptic war movie akin to Mad Max, rather than a baseball stadium. Because the stadium is also home to the NFL’s Oakland Raiders, the Oakland Coliseum is a three level high oval the entire way around - resembling a giant concrete crater, devoid of the design intricacies and charms afforded to baseball only stadiums.

But for two Canadian baseball fans, it was going to take a little bit more than an improperly located, poorly attended stadium to get us down. We are after all, going to watch baseball. As we presented our tickets to one of the many underworked ushers, we asked about the regional ballpark fare, inquiring as to what eats unique to the Coliseum they recommended.

“We got garlic fries...but they ain’t as good as the ones in San Fran” he replied. Message received.

Once inside, we decided to find any place we could to watch the basketball game. We found a bar on the second level behind home plate that overlooked the field. As we walked into the bar, a lo-fi version Billy Joel’s “I Guess That’s Why They Call It the Blues” fittingly sputtered out of the restaurant’s outdated sound system. Beside us, a couple decked out in full A’s gear ordered the usual, while Max and I bought the traditional over-priced ballpark beers and turned our attention to the game. Despite the TV being improperly formatted (we couldn’t see the score because it was in the bottom right hand corner of the frame), we left the bar in high spirits due to a Miami Heat playoff defeat and made our way to our seats.

As we sat down (at least the seats we decided we wanted to sit in), we looked up to section after section of closed-off seats. Things were getting so bad that the team was running out of retired numbers to have printed on the giant green tarps that covered the empty seats: Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, Ricky Henderson. If things get worse, they might have to retire Frank Menechino’s no. 4. Even the luxury boxes were draped and abandoned. Like many older stadiums, the washrooms utilized trough style urinals in the men’s room. Unlike other older stadiums, these troughs had not been emptied. The Rangers won the game 5-3, and while Oakland was never more than three runs down, it never felt like they had a shot. Maybe it was the atmosphere the stadium created, or maybe it was the A’s lineup that featured Johnny Gomes and whoever Cliff Pennington’s backup is, but the game never felt close.

Given our Oakland Coliseum experience, the prevailing Brad Pitt-fuelled outsider perception that Oakland is desolate and impoverished professional baseball organization was starting to look like an understatement. It wasn’t that just that the games went unwatched and the stadium was left unattended, it was that no one seemed to care at all. Despite the dire state of affairs at the Oakland Coliseum, I couldn’t help but smile and think of how much I enjoyed our experience. There is nothing about the Oakland Coliseum that would make someone say the Coliseum is a nice place to watch baseball. There is also no one who could say that watching baseball at the O. Co. is not a completely unique and memorable experience either. As wonderful as new ballparks have become, they have become common to the MLB experience. The beautiful sightlines, tasty ballpark fare, regionalized decor, creative dimensions (there’s a hill in centre field!), and fan friendly experience can be had in almost any Major League Stadium. Whether it’s PNC Park in Pittsburgh, the Great American Ballpark in Cincy, Safeco Field in Seattle or Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia; the details may change but the idea remains the same. This is not so in Oakland. It may be outdated, unfriendly, cheap and even a little bit miserable, but if you’re a baseball fan, you have to admit, there’s nowhere else quite like it. Just like you have to sit in the bleacher seats at Wrigley or try Bull’s BBQ in Philly, Oakland offers another “unique” stadium experience. And to this baseball fan, that is still worth something.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Jays Notes



There’s been lots to talk about in camp Blue Jays these days. Here’s one man’s opinion on all of the Jay’s happenings.

Guerrero Signing
Low risk usually means low reward, and if we were to calculate the odds of the Guerrero signing working out positively, little to no contribution from Vlad is probably the most likely outcome. That isn’t to say however, the Jays can’t get lucky and, as Eno Sarris pointed out, see Guerrero enjoy some success against lefties in the DH slot. Production aside, the chance to see a player as prestigious as Guerrero in a Jays uniform and the possibility of the comic bedlam that would ensue if he saw time in the field, is reason enough to give Vlad a shot.

Lawrie Suspension
To borrow a page from the realist school of international relations (I’ve been out of school for a while now, so I hope I have this right), if we want to curb this type of behaviour, we need MLB to flex some muscle. If the league really wants to create a disincentive for this kind of behaviour, hit the player where it hurts and fine them. It boils my blood as much as the next guy to see umpires entice players - I am happy to see umpires like Bob Davidson get his come-uppins, but I’m still not sold on robot umpires just yet.

Hot(ish) Start and Playoff Chances
Let’s talk in late July. Did we not learn anything from last year’s collapses? Baltimore was in first place last year too and it didn’t last. So was Cleveland. Boston won’t be under .500 for much longer either. While they Jays are off to a pretty decent start, the good folks at Getting Blanked pointed that some of the starting pitcher’s peripheral stats (K/ BB rate, BABIP) suggest that a regression may be coming. As the Orioles will most likely prove, it’s probably too early to get excited. With that said, the Jays’ potential to improve, either through trades or the promotion of prospects means that there is more to be hopeful about this year than there was in the past. Fingers crossed.

Lind Demotion
It’s hard to see Lind sent down, everyone (myself included), was rooting for the happy-go-lucky Hoosier to succeed. As remote as it now appears that he will be able to figure things out, here’s hoping that he can still turn things around. Fresh on the heels of the Lind demotion, I can’t help but think of another underachieving Blue Jay: Colby Rasmus. Rasmus, has been almost as bad as Lind at the plate over the past season and a half (.216/.291/.365 slash line this season). I was very excited when I heard the Jays acquired Rasmus last year, but Rasmus is now almost 700 plate appearances removed from his 2010 season. In addition to providing defensive value that Lind cannot, Rasmus is also 3 years younger than Adam Lind.

Phillies Trade Rumors
If the Phillies are interested in trading Cole Hamels or Shane Victorino (and I doubt they are), bring ‘em on board. Hopefully the Jays’ are connected to lots of major trade candidates and free agents moving forward. Especially top line starting pitchers like Hamels. The Jays’ system appears to be deep enough that parting with one or two high tier prospects won’t deplete the system and I think they are close enough to contention that they can justify absorbing the additional salary. If it’s the right fit. This is no way an endorsement on signing Prince Fielder.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Fantasy Flyer: Rick Porcello



Few young pitchers have been more frustrating than Rick Porcello over the last few years – in both reality and in fantasy baseball. Like the girl harbouring a grudge when getting back into the dating game, we’ve all been “hurt before” by Rick Porcello types. But this year, in deep leagues, It might be worthwhile to once again roll the dice on Porcello. If he is able to put things together, Porcello could provide surprising value at the back of your fantasy rotation.

One of the biggest storylines coming into 2012, was the Tigers’ abhorrent infield defence. Porcello, along with fellow groundball inducer, Doug Fister, were the pitchers believed to suffer most from Detroit’s infield made of stone. While the Tigers’ infield defence will no doubt hurt him, Detroit institutions Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta have been hurting Porcello’s numbers for the last few years. The addition of Fielder may not be as drastic as we are led to believe. The increase in WHIP and ERA may be offset by the extra win opportunities Procello should have playing for the Tigers and pitching in the AL Central.

Infield defence and win totals aside, there are other reasons why I am optimistic Porcello can be a good buy low fantasy candidate. Right now, Porcello has an ERA of 5.64 and xFIP of 3.64. The past two seasons, Porcello has posted ERA’s of 4.92 and 4.75 while his xFIP has come in at 4.24 and 4.04. While the poor Tigers defence will probably continue lead to an ERA that remains somewhat higher than his xFIP; Porcello’s xFIP does suggest that we should see some improvement in his performance. There is also reason to be slightly optimistic about Porcello’s ability to build further upon his skillset. Right now, Porcello’s value comes from his ability to prevent walks and induce groundballs. Mike Podhorzer at Fangraphs has noted that Porcello has increased his fastball velocity by 1.7 mph this year. If Porcello is able to increase his strikeout rate to over 5 K/9; like it was in the minor leagues, it would go a long way in adding to his fantasy value.

To pepper in some anecdotal evidence. Baseball Prospectus scouts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parkes (on their podcast Up and In), both discussed that coming into the 2012 season, neither would be surprised if Porcello can put it all together and take the next step. Keith Law, scout for ESPN, has also written that he believes Porcello improve on his 2011 performance. It’s also easy to forget that Porcello is still only 23 years old. To assume he has reached his peak may be premature. While it also may be premature to roster Porcello in a standard 10 team mixed league, in deeper leagues, gambling on Porcello now may pay off sooner rather than later.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Maybe, Possibly, Potentially: Why Bad Closers Mean Some Managers Might Be Thinking Differently About Bullpen Management


Among the analytical and Sabermetic community of baseball writers, one issue that generates more scorn per capita than any other topic is Major League organizations’ use of relief pitchers. Central to this criticism are managers, “managing to the save”. Managing to the save means assigning one reliever, in most cases your best, to pitch the last inning of any game where your team is leading by one to three runs. Hence this reliever gets the save.

A long line of writers and analysts have screamed like Al Pacino in Scarface about how this is a misusage of bullpen arms. To summarize a body of work that is vast, precise, and usually unnecessarily cruel; pigeonholing your best pitcher into a role that requires he pitch one inning (and one inning only) at the very end of the game when a save is on the line is not the best way to use your top bullpen arm. The reasoning suggests that there are many instances where using your best reliever earlier in the game during a tight situation - say for example, in the 7th inning of a tie game with the heart of the order coming up, is more valuable. Admittedly, this is a quick and dirty version of the how Major League teams could better utilize their bullpens; but it’s not hard to see that having your closer come in with a three run lead in the bottom of the 9th to face a lineup’s 7-9 hitters is not necessarily getting the most bang for your buck.

Typically, this new type of thinking has been ignored by Major League clubs, who continue to trot their best relief pitcher out in ninth inning save situations. They tend to use this anointed closer regardless of platoon splits or any of the other factors mentioned above. Over the past couple of years however, there have been a few managers on the block that look like they could be interpreted as trying something differently; if you look at it in the right light that is.

To be clear, no manager has come out and said that anything that refers to a more progressive approach to bullpen management. But even if someone is trying to do things differently, why make it into an issue and create a story in the media? Big league managers are in a different position than people looking at the game from a purely analytic role. There is more to lose and people to answer to. With that said, certain managers, like Robin Ventura, Don Mattingly and Joe Maddon have made the “peculiar” decision to appoint someone other than their best reliever as the team’s closer. In the right light, this may suggest that maybe (and it is a big maybe), they are thinking a little differently about bullpen management.
In Chicago, Ventura has chosen to use Hector Santiago in many of the team’s save situations, instead of the harder throwing Matt Thornton and Addison Reed. Using Santiago in a majority of save situations, frees up Reed and Thornton to pitch in higher leverage situations that the game dictates. Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, sophomore manager Don Mattingly has chosen to stick with closer Javy Guerra instead of turning the job over to dominating setup man, Kenley Jansen; much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere. Like Ventura and Mattingly, the always forward thinking Joe Maddon has elected to use Fernando Rodney instead of Jake McGee or Joel Peralta. By refraining from committing their best reliever to work the 9th inning, these managers are free to use their most dominant bullpen arms as they see fit.

After Sunday’s game, in which Matt Thornton, not “closer” Hector Santiago, was sent out to pitch the 9th inning, rookie manager Ventura, made comments that could be interpreted in a way that suggest he may be going against the old baseball wisdom of defined bullpen roles. Ventura said the following to Kerry Walls of MLB.com about managing his pen:
"I think it kind of goes with the game and how games are going," Ventura said, "how guys are feeling. I feel like I understand it. It's just more of getting to know your guys and who might need a day and who might not. But the game kind of dictates what happens."

He isn’t coming out and saying that they don’t need a defined closer, but he is suggesting that roles don’t need to be etched in stone.

Some may look at Fernando Rodney, Javy Guerra and Hector Santiago and see ineffective closers. If you’re being optimistic, these closers could mark a changing of the guard in bullpen management. Like a Marxist interpretation of Die Hard, just because you can correlate something, doesn’t make it true, but change happens gradually in baseball, so maybe (and it’s a big maybe), not committing your best relief pitcher to the 9th inning is the first step to getting rid of rigid and defined bullpen roles that allow for a more fluid and ultimately more effective use of relief pitchers.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Jamie Moyer, Brandon Morrow and the Michael Pineda Injury



Jamie Moyer
One of my favourite baseball writers, Keith Law, has been very tough on Jamie Moyer’s recent comeback. Like many analytically oriented writers, he is quick to mention the power of the “narrative” in Moyer’s performance. Everyone gets that Moyer is running more on fumes at this point. Everyone understands that he hasn’t faced one of the leagues better offences and that he probably can’t continue to be an above average league starter. But can’t you give him at least a little bit of credit? The man is almost fifty years old and doing something that the vast majority of the population can’t do at their physical peak. Sure it’s more story than substantial analysis but some stories are worth telling. Kudos to you Jamie Moyer, I hope you keep getting the attention.

Brandon Nolasco
As a Blue Jays fan, it’s hard to accept things we just don’t want to be true. It was hard for us to come to terms with the fact that Aaron Hill isn’t a 30 home run hitter, or that the team isn’t one “proven closer” away from contention. We have to learn to live with the fact that Adeiny Hechavarria may not ever hit enough to play in the Major Leagues, or that Adam Lind may not revert to his 2009 form. The scariest of these hard truths is that Brandon Morrow may never realize his otherworldly potential and become an ace. Morrow is now entering his third year as a full time starter with the Jays and has not yet been able to harness his potential, despite strong peripheral stats (xFIP and K/9). I know it’s very early in the season, but Morrow also has two full years of pitching exactly like he has thus far to include in his sample size. I don’t want to accept it, but someday soon, we might need to take Morrow to be one of the rare pitchers who despite positive peripheral statistics and enormous raw stuff, is not able to translate this into on field results. Like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco


Michael Pineda Injury

The news that Michael Pineda is out for the year with a torn labrum has led many (including Baseball Prospectus/Grantland writer Rany Jazayerli) to echo a familiar refrain: “this injury shows that hitting prospects are more valuable than pitching prospects”. The injury definitely throws a wrench into the Yankees plans for 2012; and the injury definitely raises question marks about Pineda’s future, but even with Pineda sidelined for the year, I think it’s a little premature to classify the Pineda trade as a failure. The Yankees have a potent offence. They are third in all of baseball in runs scored. That number shouldn’t drop too much as the season continues. The Yankees didn’t need Jesus Montero. They did need another top of the rotation pitcher. Teams have also started locking up their young starting pitchers. Matt Cain, Jarred Weaver, Brandon Morrow, Cory Luebke, and Madison Bumgarner have all signed contract extensions in the past twelve months. There are fewer and fewer high quality pitchers getting to free agency. Young pitching may be more volatile than young hitting, but that doesn’t mean it’s not more valuable. Especially to a team that has offence to spare and a hole in the top of their rotation. Remember that Pineda is out for the year, his career isn’t over. Even if the trade doesn’t work out, Brian Cashman and the Yankees shouldn’t be criticized for taking an area of strength (surplus of hitting) and trying to fill an area of weakness. Even if that pitcher gets hurt.

Monday, April 16, 2012

The All “Put Me In Coach” Team



Nothing is more frustrating to a baseball fan than watching a player you think can contribute ride the pine. If you were in charge, things would be different; and the team would be better off because of it. Like any other fan, I think I know better. Here is a list of players I would like to see penciled into the starting lineup every night.

Brandon Belt – Giants, 1B/OF
Technically he has a Major League job right now, but despite being one of the Giants better offensive players, Belt is always one 0-4 away from a demotion . As far as anyone can tell, Belt has been boxed out of the Giants lineup to ensure that 2010 World Series hero Aubrey Huff gets his hacks. The Giants’ handling of Belt is even more confusing given that they are playoff contender that could help improve the team’s anemic offence. If either Bruce Bochy or Brian Sabean could commit to starting Belt (I’m not picky - left field or first base will do), there would be a glut of baseball bloggers who would need to find someone else to lambaste. At least for a little while.

Lonnie Chisenhall - Indians, 3B
Chisenhall, who was called up to the majors last year, has begun the 2012 season at triple A. Chisenhall, may struggle at the major league level in the short term given his issues with plate discipline, but one of the reasons Indians’ management cited in sending him to AAA is that he was pressing at the plate. What better way to alleviate pressure than give him the starting job and the confidence that comes with knowing it’s secure? Cleveland is in need of offensive production, evidenced by the deal the team just negotiated with left fielder Johnny Damon. Chisenhall’s offensive upside is greater than incumbent Jack Hannahan. If the Tribe have any intention of making things interesting for Detroit in the AL Central, getting Chisenhall hitting will be a necessity. They can always have Hannahan ct as a late game defensive replacement if you really need his defence that badly.

Domenic Brown - Phillies, OF
Kevin Goldstein referred to Brown yesterday on twitter as the “East Coast Brandon Belt”. The Phillies are just as offensively starved as the Giants and have no player (they are currently starting Juan Pierre) blocking Brown in leftfield. According to EPSN’s Eric Karabell, Brown’s defence in left field is still very suspect, but he really shouldn’t be held out of a Phillies lineup that is already without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Brown would inject some much needed youth and upside to a lineup that needs to improve if the Phils are going to hang onto their NL East crown.

John Jaso – Mariners, C
Jaso is unlike the other players on this list; he is older and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. That doesn’t mean he isn’t worthy of more playing time, especially in Seattle. Currently, the Mariners are starting Miguel Olivo behind the plate every night. Jaso has started once this season, and that came as the DH. While Olivo can hit for more power than Jaso, that is the only thing he does better than him. Jaso could provide slightly better defence and more importantly, some much needed on-base skills (.341 career OBP) for an offensively challenged Mariners lineup. Olivo needs to hit a lot more than 19 home runs to make up for a .253 OBP. By the way, this is in no way bitterness related to me drafting Jaso as the second catcher in a very deep fantasy baseball league.

Travis Snider – Blue Jays, OF
The longer Snider stays in the minor leagues, the less likely it appears the talented outfielder will realize hit potential with the Blue Jays. According to some Blue Jays bloggers, Snider’s troubles lie in his inability to hit curveballs and lefthanders. At the end of March, the Blue Jays were not convinced that he had remedied the problem enough to strip Eric Thames of his job. Snider has more upside than any other left fielder in Toronto who is close to Major League ready. He is slugging .844 at Triple A this year and probably won’t fix anything that needs fixing in the Pacific Coast League. If Eric Thames struggles, giving Snider 400 at bats to learn on the job would go a long way in telling whether or not he has a future in Toronto. But that’s what we Snider fans have been advocating for the last three years.

Trevor Bauer – D-Backs, P
I am merely echoing what many qualified baseball bloggers and analysts have already said. Sure he is very young and inexperienced, but Bauer is having his way with minor league hitters and wouldn’t need to be more than a back of the rotation starter to be valuable to the Diamondbacks. If he matures quickly, Arizona could have another weapon in the front of their rotation. It doesn’t hurt that Bauer will be facing the pucnless Padres and Giants a good chunk of the time. Like a lot of teams mentioned above, if the Diamondbacks have intentions of contending, why not use every bullet in the chamber you can?

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Not the Splash You’re Thinking Of – Why Chris Iannetta Might be Key to LA’s Success



Everyone knows about the Angels’ big offseason acquisitions. Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson were two of the top players on the market, and some combination of Jerry DiPoto and Arte Moreno were able to woo them both to Anaheim in one afternoon. Now both Pujols and Wilson are good players that should help the Angels compete with the Rangers in the AL West, but one acquisition that may be the key to their success is the less talked about acquisition of catcher Chris Iannetta.

Back in the winter of 2011, the Tony Reagins led Angels were involved in a string of events that resulted in trading Mike Napoli to the Rangers (via the Blue Jays) for Vernon Wells. Aside from taking on the never talked about Vernon Wells contract, the Angels lost their starting catcher. Or at least what should have been their starting catcher (I’m sure we’ve all heard plenty about Mike Scioscia’s displeasure with Napoli). With Napoli’s plus bat and poor catching skills in Texas, the road was paved for Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger to take over catching duties.

The Mathis/Conger catching platoon did not work out well for Los Angeles in 2011, leaving the many analysts who were opposed to giving Jeff Mathis 300 at bats saying “I told you so”. The two players combined for a WAR (Fangraphs’ version) of -0.5 last season. Chris Iannetta posted a 3.2 WAR in 2011 and has posted a WAR over 2 in three of the four seasons since 2008. Even in his abhorrent 2010 season, where he hit under .200, his .318 OBP was still better than Mathis’ and Conger’s. In one of Jerry DiPoto’s most underrated moves thus far, he was able to ween Mike Scioscia off Jeff Mathis and upgrade a position that was a major weakness for LA at the same time. When evaluating a team’s offseason transactions, it’s not just about who they are acquiring; it’s about who they are replacing. That’s why an upgrade at catcher for the Angels is so important, and why replacing Victor Martinez with Prince Fielder in Detroit may not be as impactful as many people believe it will be.

CJ Wilson strengthens an already talented rotation, and Albert Pujols is most definitely an upgrade over Mark Trumbo, but Iannetta provides value at a position that was an absolute black hole for the Angels last season. If the Angels do overtake Texas this season, we will justifiably hear about Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. Let’s just not forget to give Chris Iannetta his credit either.

Friday, March 30, 2012

2012 National League Preview in 1,155 Words



NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East is beginning to look a lot like the ultra competitive American League East – four teams that should win more than they lose and one team you’d rather not think about. Washington (Gio Gonzalez) and Miami (Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle) both made significant offseason acquisitions, but until I know that Josh Johnson in Miami and Ryan Zimmerman in Washington, can stay off the DL, I am hesitant to think they can overtake Philadelphia or Atlanta. The Phillies took the NL East crown once again last year, despite a poor season from Ryan Howard and the usual time lost to injury by Chase Utley. Going into 2012, Howard and Utley will begin the season on the disabled list, leaving the Philadelphia offence without two of its better hitters. While the aging roster and declining offensive production makes it feel like the Phillies should be at the end of their rope, until one of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels are sidelined with a major injury, it’s hard to be against the Phills. I’ve done it before and learned my lesson, so going into 2012 I’m picking the Phillies to once again win the NL East.

NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
It has not been a good spring for the Cincinnati Reds. New closer Ryan Madson is out for the season and new ace Mat Latos is suffering from a strained calf, although this injury may be minor. While the Reds have signalled all in by trading for Latos and Sean Marshall, there are too many question marks for me to pick them as division winners. Outside of Latos, the effectiveness of Johhny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake is somewhat of an unknown. Can Scott Rolen stay healthy? What kind of season is Zack Cozart going to have? St. Louis should field a competitive team, but their offence, while potentially dangerous, is also pretty rickety and vulnerable to injury; Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal and David Freese have all lost significant time to injuries over the last two years. I think the Milwaukee Brewers are in a position to once again win the NL Central. While the offence did take a hit, Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel should be able to replace a fair bit of the production lost by Prince Fielder’s defection. Signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop should be a major defensive upgrade over Yuni Betancourt and I expect an even better season from Zack Greinke (2.56 xFIP verses 3.83 ERA), who pitched through some bad luck in 2011. Combined with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum the Brewers’ rotation posted the 2nd best starters’ xFIP (3.65) in the National League last year, while the bullpen posted an xFIP of 3.43, also good for second best. The NL Central is still the Brewers’ to lose.

NL West – Arizona Diamondbacks
For me, the NL West appears to be one of the most open divisions in baseball heading into 2012. For a team that has arguably the best position player and pitcher in the league in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the LA Dodgers really don’t have much else. The Rockies, now with more Michael Cuddyer, are poised for another middle of the road finish, unless some of their young pitchers (Alex White, Drew Pomeranz) take major strides very quickly. The Arizona Diamondbacks, last year’s division champs, return a roster primarily intact, with the addition of Trevor Cahill to the rotation. While Ian Kennedy (3.50 xFIP, 2.88 ERA) and Josh Collmenter may regress, paired with Daniel Hudson and Cahill, Arizona fields a decent enough starting rotation. Outside of Justin Upton and Miguel Montero, their offense is nothing special, but their complimentary pieces (Jason Kubel, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young, and Gerardo Perra) are probably better than anything the rest of the division is trotting out there. The song remains the same in San Francisco, where the pitching will be there, it’s just a question of how much offense the Giants’ can provide. Until San Fran shows that they are committed to playing Brandon Belt fulltime, it’s hard to get behind an offense that features, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and not much else. I’ll take the D-backs by a hair.

NL Wildcard – Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While most of the Cards’ key offensive pieces are major injury risks, St Louis should be able to hit enough to stay in contention. If these players go down for an extended period of time, the Cardinals’’ young arms (Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jason Motte), along with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia, will be counted on to keep them competitive. I am much higher on the Braves than many (Eric Karabell and Mark Simon of Baseball Today, both projected Miami to finish ahead of Atlanta) heading into 2012. Health is a major issue for the Braves. Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Chipper Jones are all key contributors with significant health issues heading into the season. With that said, the Braves are a deep team. Their pitching depth is no secret. Behind Hanson and Jurrjens, they have Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy, two pitchers who also had very successful 2011 seasons. They also have young arms on the way, in the form of Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. The lineup is also a better than most people are giving them credit for. Aside from Jones and Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Martin Prado all have the ability to be above average offensive players. Their bullpen is equally deep. Even if things go wrong, I think the Braves will find their way into the playoffs. Until Josh Johnson makes twenty starts for Miami, in think they are still on the outside looking in.

NL Rookie of the Year – Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
I can’t tell you who the 2012 NL ROY will be, but I can say that there is a very good chance that they have come out of the Cincinnati Reds farm system. It’s a wide open race. While Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yonder Alonso are all candidates, I’ll take Alonso based on the fact that playing for a non-contender means he should get the at bats to work through any growing pains and boost his counting stats (which worked out pretty well for Mark Trumbo last year).

NL MVP – Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Stanton is a beast that is ready to go off. He hit 34 ding dongs last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 50 this year. There may be better all around players in the NL (Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton may be more deserving), but if Stanton has a Jose Bautista like offensive year, the votes will likely go to him. Plus, he should get a tonne of RBIs hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Don't Blame Eric



When Travis Snider got sent down today – my twitter feed exploded. At least as much as a person who follows 60 people’s feed can explode. It goes without saying that I’m new to twitter. In any case, there was a fair amount of frustration, sarcasm and or indignation – it’s hard to tell in 140 characters sometimes, on Snider being sent down. Now I am as bummed out as the next guy that Luchbox (see, I know that’s his nickname from twitter), won’t be starting the year in Toronto. He is a talented player with more upside than any of the left field candidates, but that doesn’t mean we should entirely write off Eric Thames either.

Much has been made about Eric Thames and what he can’t do. He is a poor left fielder, swings and misses too much and can’t get on base. Eric Thames is 25 years old. He has only played 95 Major League games. In those games he struck out too often, played a poor left field and didn’t take enough walks. He also slugged .456 and posted a .333 wOBA. Both of those numbers are better than what Colby Rasmus posted in his breakout (let’s hope it was a breakout) 2010 season. Last season Thames posted a higher walk rate than Snider (5.8 to 5.4) and according to Fangraphs comprehensive base running stat UBR, comparable value on the bases (2.4 to 1.4). Thames has never posted a minor league OBP of less than .360, and we should remember that defensive metrics usually require much more than a 95 game sample to determine a fielder’s true defensive value. That said, it would be hard to suggest Thames passed the “eye test” of defensive evaluation either last year.

The point here is not to suggest Thames is or will be a better player than Snider in the long run; only that it is possible, if things break right for Eric and wrong for Travis. As much as it sucks to see Snider get sent down, we shouldn’t take it out on Thames, by writing off a player who could be valuable, whether it’s for the Jays, or as a trade chip. The shitty thing about the situation is that it has become a dichotomy of one against the other. I’m bummed Snider isn’t playing, but that doesn’t mean I hate the idea of Thames playing either. Let’s give it a shot and see what happens. We always know where to find another left fielder if we need to.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

2012 AL Predictions in 723 Words

Here are my quick and dirty American League Predictions for 2012.
Division Winners

AL East – New York Yankees

You never get fired for buying IBM, and this winter, IBM’s rotation got a whole lot better. Adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to a rotation that already includes CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova turned an organizational weakness into an organizational strength. The Yank’s offence should be as potent as ever (2nd in baseball with 867 runs scored) and it wouldn’t be crazy to see better years from Mark Teixeira (he had a line of .248/.341/.494 in 2011, his lowest since his rookie season) and Alex Rodriguez (who should be healthier). The bullpen should be stellar, especially if Raphael Soriano is pitching effectively – the prospect of using David Robertson in the seventh inning is a scary one for the rest of the AL East. And it’s always hard to bet against the team that can just go out and buy whatever it is they don’t have (maybe a catcher or a DH-type) at the trade deadline.

AL Central – Cleveland Indians

You gotta take some chances or these things all boring as hell to read. It’s easy to think the Tigers are going to run away with the division, but I’m not convinced. Sure, they signed Prince Fielder, but he is replacing the injured Victor Martinez, so the offensive upgrade should not be as drastic as many think. There is no way Jose Valverde is going to have anything close to the year he had in 2011, and the rest of their bullpen options are less than ideal. Kansas City is on the rise but I think their young pitching needs another year of seasoning before they can contend. Cleveland on the other hand, has a solid rotation that has the potential to be very good if Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to form and I expect Shin Soo-Choo to rebound from a down year. Combined with the Indians young players (Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis), and the fact they play in baseball’s easiest division, I say the Tribe upset Detroit and sneak into the playoffs.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A lot of people are down on the Angels’ offence. I’m not as bearish as most. The Halos are able to get above average production from their middle infielders - Erik Aybar and Howie/Howard Kendrick. If the team can employ Mike Trout, Alberto Callaspo and Mark Trumbo correctly (ie. not playing Trumbo everyday), combined with Albert Pujols and a potential return of Kendrys Morales, the offence should be significantly better. Combined with the Angels’ rotation, Los Angeles should come out on top of the AL West. Texas is very good team too, but until Yu Darvish (who they are counting on to replace CJ Wilson) establishes himself as a frontline starter and Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler prove they can stay off the disabled list, I wouldn’t bet against the Angels.

Wildcard - Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers

While these teams may have a few more question marks in my mind than the Angels and Yankees, they are still very, very good teams; even if there are injury concerns and Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard struggle to make the transition to the starting rotation. I am hesitant to think that the Rays or Blue Jays can hang with the Rangers and Red Sox. Tampa’s rotation is as good as anyone’s, but outside of Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and maybe Desmond Jennings, their offence is sporting some significant holes (shortstop, catcher) and features an absolute tonne of strikeout potential thanks to Carlos Pena and BJ Upton.

Rookie of the Year – Matt Moore, Tampa Rays

This award is the Tampa righty’s to lose. He has shown no reason (although admittedly in a small sample last season) that he can’t continue to be successful at the Major League level, even in baseball’s toughest division.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria, Tampa Rays

There are going to be a lot of players that have big offensive seasons this year in the American League. Longoria is going to be one of them. He is also going to be one of the only big hitters that plays stellar defence at a demanding position. The Rays should play well enough for him to secure the “winning matters” contingent of the vote.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

What Could Go Wrong: 2012 Seattle Mariners



Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Seattle Mariners, that much, everybody knows. But what if things aren’t on their way to improving like we think they are? This weeks’ absolutely worst case scenario looks at the Seattle Mariners.

If anyone doubted Seattle’s commitment to rebuilding, the January trade of Michael Pineda to New York should leave no doubt that this team is not trying to win anything in 2012, and playing in a division that includes the Rangers and Angels, means they really shouldn’t be. Because Seattle isn’t expecting to contend in 2012, the only thing that could really hinder the team this year is a lack of development by players counted on to be cornerstones of the Mariners’ rebuild. Seattle is rich in pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), and while the team is not devoid of position player depth (Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez), they do lack projectable, high upside, middle of the order bats outside of Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

This January, the Mariners sent Michael Pineda, a top of the rotation talent with a solid rookie season already under his belt, to the Yankees with the idea that they could build their offense around Jesus Montero. While he does have the ability to become a middle of the order bat, there are some unanswered questions in his game. By some accounts, Montero appeared bored last year in the minor leagues (he slugged under .500 for the first time since 2008), and playing for a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily inspire focus. No one outside the clubhouse (like a random Canadian baseball fan taken to blogging...) really knows the extent of the problems, but if Montero does have issues related to focus or motivation, these problems may follow him to a team that wins 70 games for the next couple years.

There is also the issue of Montero’s ability to develop as a power hitter. By all accounts, Montero is a strong kid with power to all fields. If, for some reason however, that power doesn’t translate at Safeco Field, where Mariners brass are banking he will show power to the right field(the only place power hitters can exploit in Seattle), his on-base and contact skills may not be worth the price Seattle paid to acquire him. There is also some concern from scouts who believe that Montero‘s defence is not good enough to have him stick at catcher in the major leagues. A version of Montero that is used primarily as a DH and isn’t able to produce middle of the order power numbers will definitely lead to more questions than answers for Seattle over the next few years.

The Mariners’ other power bat of the future, Justin Smoak, has also failed to live up to the expectations that made him the centrepiece of the Cliff Lee trade two years ago. Smoak is still only twenty five years old and has suffered a rash of injuries and personal setbacks (he lost his father last season), that suggest it is too early to write him off yet. With this in mind, his performance since arriving in the big leagues in 2010 has not been stellar. In 886, plate appearances – not the smallest of sample sizes, he has posted a slash line of .227/.318/.385.

The Mariners have young pitching to spare. It’s why they traded Michael Pineda, and it’s why they can absorb the blow if someone like Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen doesn’t pan out as they hoped. 2012 won’t be Seattle’s year, but if Justin Smoak or Jesus Montero aren’t able to develop into middle of the order power bats the team can pair with Dustin Ackley (who needs to avoid a sophomore slump of his own), the team may need to re-evaluate and consider trading another arm (maybe eve Felix Hernandez) and another couple years of losing before they are once again competitive in the AL West.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

What Could Go Wrong: Atlanta Braves



If I’ve learned anything from Fox News, it’s that sensationalism plays big. I’ve also learned that nothing gets people’s attention better than worst case scenarios. The kind of coverage that screams loudly that something COULD happen, however unlikely it may be. So in the spirit of Fox News and in liu of a measured analysis (which most spring previews at least try for), I thought I would change it up by over-reacting and looking at an everything-goes- wrong, worst case scenario for a few teams around the Major Leagues. First on the docket, the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves were a playoff team up until the last day of the regular season, and they come into 2012 with the roster primarily intact. A lot of things didn’t break right for Atlanta in 2011, but the 2012 season also brings with it some unanswered questions, namely, can the team stay healthy enough to compete.

In 2011, Jason Heyward’s sophomore season was plagued by some combination of injuries and underperformance. Now while there is reason to believe that a healthy Jayson Heyward can build on his 2010 rookie season, there are questions as to whether or not he will stay healthy, as Heyward appears to be building a reputation as injury prone. Without Heyward, the heart of Atlanta’s order is overly reliant on the aging Chipper Jones, strikeout machine Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann. Entering the twilight of his career, Jones’ production has begun to fall off, and McCann, who is quietly putting together a great career of his own (he’s slugged at least .450 every year since ‘06), will only play 120-130 games a year to stay fresh and avoid wear and tear. Between Heyward, Jones and McCann, the Braves will need things to break right to ensure their middle of the order bats stay on the field for the majority of the year. If they don’t, it will get pretty frustrating watching Dan Uggla strikeout in 25% of his at bats.

While the lineup contains question marks, the biggest uncertainties for the Braves come from the pitching staff. On the surface, the Braves have a loaded staff, with more reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. But aside from their depth, Atlanta could face some obstacles. Ace Tommy Hanson‘s torn rotator cuff and seemingly endless DL stints are concerning. Already sidelined briefly this spring with a concussion, Hanson has only started over 22 games once in the last 3 seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees limited action this year. Number two starter Tim Hudson is facing concerns of his own, as he turns 38 this summer and attempts to come back from off season back surgery. Combine Hudson and Hanson’s potential to miss time with All-Star Jair Jurrjens potential to regress (his xFIP was over a run higher than his ERA in 2011), and Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland, the Braves’ rotation could end up thinner than it appears in 2012.

When it comes to the back end of the bullpen, no one was better than Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. The downside however, is that almost no one pitched as many innings as Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Freddi Gonzalez’s usage of the duo was heavily criticized he but he could very well be run out of town if they are unable to repeat their rookie performances, or even worse, blow out their arms. Let’s hope Gonazalez doesn’t turn into Dusty Baker version 2.0.

So there you have it, an everything that could possibly go wrong outlook on the Atlanta Braves. Not a realistic, thorough, or measured assessment (that would include things like Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn and the ability of Vizcaino and Teheran to step into the rotation), but one that was fast, quick and might leave you more worried than you should be. Kind of like how you feel after watching Fox News.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

I'm Over It



Like any polarizing decision, the Ryan Braun hearing has brought out the best in people all over the internet. But racial slurs (check twitter if you don’t believe me) and straw men aside, the decision has led to many people to do one of two things: chastise Braun for cheating and dishonoring the game, or scream at the top of their lungs as to why policing steroids in baseball is an idiotic pursuit. So for all the discussion surrounding the issue, my question is this: who cares?

The relationship between steroids and improved play is a murky one at best. On one hand, it’s easy to see brick-shithouse players like Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds and Mark McGuire and assume that steroids can lead to massive improvements in player’s on field performance (usually, by way of increased muscle mass). These arguments, however, are far from scientific, and we tend to gloss over all the players in the Mitchell Report who didn’t see huge spikes in their numbers (hey look, another unscientific argument!). But again, this relationship a complicated one, and nothing would please me more than to refrain from adding another uneducated and unproven claim about steroid use to a cannon that is growing larger and larger by the day.

Maybe PED’s do improve performance and maybe they don’t, but after being treated to another week’s worth of analysis, I’m starting to think the discussion around steroid use is more ideological war than productive conversation. I’m tired of hearing how Ryan Braun has cheated the game, and I’m tired of hearing why people that think he cheated the game are stupid. The crazy part is that little of the discussion had to do with how the star leftfielder’s impeding suspension might affect the Brewers’ on field performance. I know this rant itself is an unfair generalization, but as the calendar turns to March, baseball itself is what I’m interested in. When it comes to steroids and Ryan Braun, or steroids and whoever, I’m over it.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Is He A Steal?



Earlier today, the Yankees and Pirates finalized a trade that sent AJ Burnett and cash (the latter almost goes without saying) to Pittsburgh for two low level (and apparently low ceiling) minor leaguers. Even before the trade was finalized, there has been a lot of talk about how this trade could be a win for Pittsburgh (Keith Law, Eric Karabell, Eric Seidman). A move to the weaker National League, getting out of a bandbox home ballpark, and a bit of bad luck over the past two years (3.86 xFIP last year) has these analysts suggesting that Burnett can be a valuable pitcher over the remaining two years of his contract. Now, it might be contrarian in me, or maybe it’s the spiteful Blue Jays fan, but here are a few reasons the trade doesn’t make as much sense to me.

As much as AJ Burnett’s statistics over the last few years could have been attributed to some bad luck, some of his periphery statistics (at least in the interpretation of this non-sabermatrician) have been trending in the wrong direction. Since joining the Yankees, Burnett’s walk rates (4.22, 3.76, 3.92) have been higher than any season in his career since 2001. Similarly, his strikeout rate, has been trending in the wrong direction. With the Blue Jays in 2007 and 2008 AJ averaged K rates of 9.56 and 9.39, since joining the Yankees, that rate dropped to 8.18 last year while he posted a 6.99 k/9 rate in 2010. Burnett has also started to lose a tick of velocity on his fastball which averaged 92.7 mph in 2011 after averaging at least 94.2 mph through 2009. AJ Burnett will also pitch this year at age 35, and it isn’t unheard of to see power pitchers decline quickly, when they start to lose their stuff. Even in a best case scenario, a gradual the decline still appears to be already underway for everyone’s favourite enigma.

Suggestions that Burnett will thrive away from Yankee Stadium could be overblown, as remember, he did post some of his best seasons in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. His declining results could be a combination of age, more walks and fewer strikeouts. Burnett’s inability to handle a major media market and thus his ability to rebound from it, may also be overblown. Stories and accusations about Burnett’s inconsist performance have been following him around throughout his time with the small market Marlins and Blue Jays (in terms of media coverage) and not just with the Yankees.

Beyond the concerns listed above, acquiring Burnett seems to make little sense for a Pirates team that is still at least 2 years away from contention in the NL Central. Even if Burnett is a 2.5 win (above replacement) pitcher over the next two years, this is most likely the difference between fielding 74 win team and fielding a 77 win team. The 13 million dollars the Pirates committed to Burnett could have been better spent in the amateur draft (although this has become more difficult with the new CBA), or signing/trading for a player that can help the team when they are ready to contend again in a few years. Trading Burnett for anything of value could also prove to be difficult given his inability (or at least perceived inability) to pitch in the AL East and his reluctance to move to the west coast (he vetoed an earlier trade that would have sent him to the Angels).

Acquiring AJ Burnett is by no means the worst trade made this offseason, and there are definitely some reasons to suggest it could work out for the Bucs. That said, the little argumentative voice inside me says this trade may not be the steal it appears to be.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Give Him A Break: Josh Hamilton Deserves Our Respect




Much has been written about Josh Hamilton’s January 30th misstep in his ongoing recovery from drug and alcohol problems. While Hamilton’s battle with substance abuse has always been a talking point in the baseball media, the discussion has increased in recent weeks, fuelled no doubt, by the outfielder’s impending free agency. Like any contentious issue, there have been some contentious responses to Hamilton’s most recent slip up. Regrettably, what is overlooked in these responses all of the things Josh Hamilton is doing right.

One of the most important things to remember about Josh Hamilton’s battle with drugs and alcohol is that Hamilton acknowledges his vulnerability and limitation. Not only is this a more human and relatable way to understand a professional athlete, it’s also more realistic. Many people throughout professional sports (and life in general) would benefit from approaching alcohol and drug use like Josh Hamilton. There are most likely many players within Major League baseball that should be dealing with alcohol the same way Hamilton does (trying not to touch it) but choose not to. Hamilton is open about his relationship with drugs and alcohol in a way that other players are not. Typically we only learn of an athlete’s substance abuse if it results in an arrest (Miguel Cabrera’s arrest last offseason as one example). Hamilton is proactive in a way that most people dealing with substance abuse problems are not. This proactivity is valuable tool in his recovery; there is always a better chance of improving at anything (whether it’s dealing with addiction or increasing your OPS against left handed pitching) when you can acknowledge and understand your current limitations. If anyone is going to beat addiction, it’s going to be someone who is actively battling it, not someone who is ignoring the problem.

Unfortunately, last week I read a couple tweets suggesting that Josh Hamilton’s actions were nothing more than a poor choice he made freely. All that kind of statement proves is that whoever is making it has no understanding of what a substance addiction entails, or how the people that suffer from them are required to manage their disease on a daily basis. In the words of Captain Hook – “poor form Jack, poor form”. We should be viewing Josh Hamilton as a success – people that struggle with addictions are always susceptible to relapse. The fact that he has only slipped up (at least publically,) twice in the last five years is admirable. There are many people who struggle with addictions that would love to be able to say the same thing. Josh Hamilton is not perfect, but he handling the most difficult of situations in an admirable way. A way that I hope we can learn from, instead of criticize.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Just Go For It



It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.

Monday, January 30, 2012

$214 Million Dollars of Upgrades



With almost a week passing since Prince Fielder singed with the Detroit Tigers, I thought I would do the disservice of writing another blog post about the hefty slugger’s move to the Motor City. While much has already been made about the Tigers’ new 500 pound corner infield, I think it’s important to remember that even though Mike Ilitch’s heart was in the right place, spending big money on Prince Fielder isn’t necessarily the best path to remaining competitive and winning championships for the Tigers given their current roster.

Mike Ilitch spent his hard earned pizza empire millions (of which I have personally contributed via the $5 Hot n’ Ready) with the hope that his Detroit Tigers are able to win a championship in the next few years. While it’s easy to appreciate an owner spending big money to bring home a World Series, I’m not sure if the Tigers’ play for Prince was the best way to do so. Defensively, there are major questions about Miguel Cabrera playing anywhere in the field, be it third base, left field or first base. There are bigger questions if Fielder, another subpar defender, is also starting somewhere other than designated hitter. The team’s pitching staff also has some issues of its own. Can Doug Fister replicate his 2011 outside of Safeco Field? What kind of season can erratic but talented Max Scherzer have? Both Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde had career years in 2011, but what will happen if they regress (which is almost guaranteed in Valverde’s case) to their career norms? Will signing Octavio Dotel really improve the bullpen? On the offensive side of things, can Austin Jackson, Delmon Young and whoever is playing 2B and 3B get on base and be league average offensive players? And what if, as some writers have suggested (like Getting Blanked’s Travis Reitsma), that Fielder merely replaces the production of Victor Martinez, instead of improving on it?

There are a lot of ways to spend $214 million dollars (or in my case, 214 dollars), and given how the Tigers roster is currently constructed, the money may have been better used to upgrade several problem areas. Would the Tigers not have looked better signing Jose Reyes and moving Jhonny Peralta to third base? What if they traded a package of players (like prospect Jacob Turner) for a young starter like Michael Pineda, Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez? They could have upgraded their outfield by trading for Carlos Quentin. If they didn’t want to part with prospects they could have gone after CJ Wilson or Edwin Jackson and they could have shored up the bullpen by signing Ryan Madson, a far superior reliever to Jose Valverde, and one who ended up taking a one year $8.5 million dollar deal. Based on the contracts Wilson, Reyes and Madson signed this offseason, the Tigers could have inked all three (they posted a combined WAR of 13.8 according to Fangraphs) for less money than it cost to sign Prince Fielder (5.5 WAR).

This is not to say any of the players mentioned above wanted to sign with the Tigers, or that they don’t come with risks and problems of their own. It is meant to say that if winning now was indeed priority number one for Detroit this offseason, there were options other than Fielder that should have been examined. Options that may have been more effective and efficient than giving out the fourth largest contract in baseball history to a player with question marks of his own (defence, how he will age given his weight). Especially knowing the Tigers’ roster already has a surplus of viable 1B and DH options.

Having an owner that is committed to winning is a great thing and signing Prince Fielder is certainly symbolic of that commitment. But for a Tigers’ team that has many holes to fill and $214 million dollars to fill them, signing Fielder may not have been the best way to deploy these resources.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

I Don't Know Davey...




Rumour has it that the motivation for trading shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Rockies this weekend was to free up money to sign one of several free agents. One of the free agents the Red Sox are supposedly interested in signing is Cody Ross. Now Ross is not an awful player, but this is not exactly the kind of move I have in mind when I think of the Boston Red Sox.


Ross is a player that does some things well. He has a little bit of power (although not a lot for a corner outfielder), and appears to be a decent baserunner, despite not stealing many bases. Defensively he is average at best, and while he may have exhibited some less quantifiable qualities in the Giants World Series run in 2010 (like clutch hitting), there is a reason he is still available on January 23. Ross is also 31 years old and would be moving into the toughest division in baseball. Acquiring Ross also doesn’t account for the question of whether or not Mike Aviles and Nick Punto can replace Scutaro (especially his defence) at short.

Something about the Red Sox moving Scutaro to acquire a player like Cody Ross doesn’t seem right. Time and time again we’ve seen that it makes the most sense to spend money on the players at the very top of the free agent market. Organizations tend to make the most mistakes when they give contracts to veteran players that were never elite talents. Cody Ross could be this year’s Jose Guillen. Maybe I’m misreading the situation and the Sox are really going after Roy Oswalt, a pitcher that could greatly improve their rotation if he can stay healthy enough to make 16 plus starts. While acquiring a good number two starting pitcher (like Oswalt or Edwin Jackson) would still leave somewhat of a hole at shortstop, it makes a little more sense than signing a corner outfielder with limited abilities. If they are intent on replacing Scutaro with Ross, this is a move in a direction that I’m not used to seeing the Red Sox go in, and not one that is going to help them leapfrog the Rays and Yankees in the ultra competitive AL East.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Why I Shouldn't Be Surprised Yanks Landed Pineda




It’s always easy to accept things that you want to be true, even when they probably aren’t. So when this Blue Jay fan observed the Yankees and Red Sox passing on every impact free agent to date this offseason, I was pleasantly surprised. Sure the Red Sox shored up their bullpen, but all and all it had been a quiet winter. Maybe Toronto could sneak into the playoffs with 90 wins if everything breaks right? But wanting something to be true doesn’t make it so and I should have known better.


Friday night, the Yankees acquired soon to be 23 year old starting pitcher Michael Pineda. Pineda had the third highest strikeout percentage in baseball and an ERA of 3.74 (3.53 xFIP) last year. I will tell myself everything I always do when a trade like this happens: apparently his changeup isn’t that good, he only has one year of experience, and moving from Safeco to Yankee Stadium will mean he gives up more home runs. All this really is though is a Blue Jays fan avoiding the fact that the Yankees, as usual got better on Friday. A lot better.


The AL East is the AL East and it is never going to change. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible for the three teams in the division not battling with the luxury tax to make playoffs, it just means there are no shortcuts. Shortcuts like signing Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish or going after a proven closer. Moves that would help any team no doubt, but not address the fact that the Blue Jays need to develop a system full of quality, high ceiling players and prospects (like Michael Pineda) to be able to run with the big dogs in the East. Things are moving in the right direction, and we should get there soon, but the team still has more than a couple holes to fill. The rotation, second base, left field, DH and first base could all be problem areas for the team this year. Friday’s trade between New York and Seattle was just another reminder that Toronto isn’t in the AL or NL Central. The Jays will need to be one of the best teams in baseball to even have a shot at making the playoffs. Even if I should have known that all along.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Why No Interest in Prince San Fran?




For all the action, (or lack thereof) in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, one team that has not shown interest (at least publicly) are the San Francisco Giants. Why San Fran hasn’t been linked to the husky slugger is a little bit confusing to me. With Fielder, the Giants would improve a punchless lineup that has prevented them from becoming an elite team and ensure that their talented pitching staff isn’t wasted on a team fighting just to get into the playoffs.


The Giants’ offensive issues were on full display this year as they surrendered their NL West division crown to the Diamondbacks. Admittedly, the team was without Buster Posey for most of the year, but even a current Giants’ lineup that includes Posey is still average at best. While Posey is an elite player, some of his value is positional. Posey will be a good hitter, but he will not be putting up Mike Piazza-like numbers in the middle of a line-up anytime soon. Like Posey, Brandon Belt is another potential future star and projects to be a talented hitter, but given his age and inexperience, counting on him to be the anchor in the middle of the lineup may be a bit premature. And that also assumes that one of Brian Sabean or Bruce Bochy actually decides to give the poor guy the playing time he deserves. In either case, the Giants are still in need of a power bat to lengthen the middle of their lineup.
Fielder is fairly close to being a complete offensive player. He is very consistent, since his rookie year, he hasn’t hit any less than 28 HR and has averaged 38. His gets on base (.390 career OBP) and hits for power (.540 career slugging percentage). If 2011 is any indication, his performance against left handed pitching (.822 OPS) is also turning into a non-issue as well. A middle of the order that includes Fielder, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt (Belt would have to move to the outfield to accommodate Fielder) sounds a lot better than the Giants’ teams of 2010 and 2011 that were forced to bat Aubrey Huff and Bengie Molina cleanup (true story).


Fielder doesn’t come without his problems. He is not a good defensive player, but he is remember, a first baseman and if there is anywhere on the diamond you can afford to field a below average defender, it’s first base. And let’s be honest, the Giants don’t really balk at the idea of starting below average defensive players these days (Aubrey Huff, Orlando Cabrera). Scott Boras has also made it know that Fielder will come with hefty price tag. The rumour was that Fielder is aiming to sign a contract similar to Mark Tiexeria and Adrian Gonzalez, but with the Cubs acquiring Anthony Rizzo, big market suitors for Prince appear to be waning. Whatever Fielder’s price will be, San Francisco is a big market team ($116 million dollar payroll last year) and have only $7 million in payroll commitments beyond 2013. Yes, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are due for big raises in the near future, but the Giants also have Posey and Belt under club control until 2017, and they should be able to allocate enough of their 120 million payroll to Fielder.


The Giants already have one of the rarest things in baseball: elite starting pitching. Aside from the Phillies (and maybe the Angels depending on what you think of their top four), San Francisco has the best starting rotation in the game. Adding Fielder to a lineup that already includes young stars like Posey, Belt and Pablo Sandoval would help prevent the anaemic Giants’ offence from struggling the way it did in 2012. With the Dodger’s ownership in limbo,and questions surrounding the Diamondbacks and Rockies, there is no clear powerhouse in the National League West. The division is ripe for the taking. Signing Fielder to a long term contract is definitely a risky proposition, but given his record of past performance, the Giants payroll flexibility relative to smaller market teams and their current roster composition, it may be a risk worth taking for a team he could transform from playoff contender to World Series favourite.