Bright Future, Missing Link?

You don’t need to be the happiest man in Springfield to admit the Blue Jays future is starting to look pretty bright. The lineup features one of baseball’s best hitters in Jose Bautista. Yunel Escobar, JP Arencibia, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie have the potential to become valuable contributors for years to come. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have established themselves as top of the rotation starters. If Travis Snider can’t figure things out, recent history suggests Alex Anthopoulos will be able to trade him for Albert Pujols straight up. Couple this with the fact that Toronto is probably already better than some of this year’s to be determined playoff entrants (AL Central/NL West, I’m looking at you...) and there really is a lot to be excited about. So with all the positives pouring out of camp Blue Jays, there is one thing the team may still be missing if they want to make a playoff push two or three years down the road: another frontline starting pitcher.


According to this year’s Hustle and Heart TV promos, Ricky Romero is the staff ace. This probably has to do with a combination of performance, consistency and service time. Romero is an extremely valuable, top of the rotation major league pitcher (even if this years’ LOB rate of 81.4% suggests he may be a bit lucky). But if you’re more inclined to consider advanced statistics and pure stuff, Brandon Morrow could be viewed as the best pitcher on the team. This year, Morrow is a top twenty pitcher according to xFIP (he may have been last year as well if he had thrown enough innings), he also has ace-calibre stuff and is young enough that he shouldn’t be prone to decline in the next few years. Morrow should be an ace, but as we approach September, we are looking at the second straight year in which his xFIP, K/9 and other periphery statistics don’t seem to be translating into the on field results we expect them to. Some blame the dreaded big inning but I don’t really know what that means. Morrow is young, and turning the corner is not something that would surprise anyone but there is also some reason to believe that he may continue to see results slightly below his true talent level (something called Ricky Nolasco Syndrome). Regardless of whether or not you believe Morrow will make improvements, the need for another frontline starter to accompany Morrow and Romero at the top of the rotation is still something the Blue Jays should consider.


Even with Morrow (in any incarnation) Romero at the top of the rotation, another elite starter is almost necessary to compete in the AL East. The Jays don’t need to look any further than this year’s Red Sox team (who rank just ahead of the Jays in xFIP) to see the problems that arise from a lack of quality starting pitching. Despite having two top of the rotation starters in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the weak underbelly of the Red Sox’s rotation has been exposed (and saved by the BoSox lineup) with the back injury to Clay Buchholz (thats really how you spell BUCHHOLZ!). If you start Andrew Miller enough times, the Yankees are going to gain some ground.


Anecdotal evidence aside, the Blue Jays staff ranks in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.12 and a WAR of 10.2. Unless they plan on slugging their way to the top, improvements need to be made. As frustrating as it is to see lead after lead coughed up by the bullpen, BJ Ryan and every sabermatrician ever born has me doubting that a “proven closer” is the answer to Toronto’s pitching problems. The Jays need better starting pitching. While they do have front of the rotation prospects in the high and low minors, young arms take time to develop (remember Roy Halladay’s first few years?). And like any prospect (or player for that matter), there is also some risk the player may get injured or not live up to their potential. Bringing in a top of the rotation starter would ensure they Jays don’t have to pin their soon to be playoff hopes entirely on one or two young arms the second they get to the big leagues.


Is it possible to contend without three dominant pitchers at the top of a rotation? Sure. The Yankees are doing it; but it’s definitely more difficult. Is it possible that Toronto can solve this problem internally? Yes, but it may be a risky proposition to hang your proverbial hat on Toronto’s current minor league players; especially with Kyle Drabek’s newly developed loss of command and Henderson Alvarez’s inability to miss bats. A top of the rotation starter is one of the rarest commodities in baseball and I admit that acquiring one is no easy task. But the Jays have enough talent and money to make paying the price for a top starter feasible. Whether Toronto looks to finally spend Rogers oft-promised money and acquire an arm via free agency (CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia are both free agents this offseason), or use current minor league position player depth to fill an area of weakness at the major league level, another “outside hire” at the top of the rotation may be needed to put the Jays in a position to compete in the AL East. Whether or not Toronto is ready to compete next year or in 2013, elite starting pitchers don’t grow on trees and one may not be available at moment the Jays are ready to make the jump to certified contending team. That may mean acting sooner rather than later. Acquiring one more starting pitcher might turn what is now a bright future, into an exciting (and hopefully playoff bound) present in Toronto.

Don't Call It a Comeback

So yeah, I’ve been busy over the last few months. But watching the Tea Party storm back onto the Canadian Music scene after years in hibernation (and in Crash Karma), inspired me to continue ranting uncontrollably about my favourite slow moving professional sport.