Notes from the Under-Mound, Oct 8, 2011

ALCS

Yes, the Tigers just disposed of the best (based on record, and strength of schedule) team in the American League, but I’m still betting that they don’t give the Rangers much of a fight in the ALCS. Aside from Miggy and V-Mart (and with Alex Alvila struggling), the Tigers’ lineup looks pretty anaemic. Delmon Young and Dom Kelly played the role of offensive hero in the ALDS, but the Tigers scored just under 3.5 runs per game, which probably won’t be enough to hold down the Rangers. Along with Detroit’s potential offensive issues, there is a Tiger bullpen that relies exclusively on Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. Even if Papa Grande’s inevitable implosion is somehow postponed until next season, Jim Leyland showed us in the Yankee series that he has little faith in anyone other than his setup man and closer, never a good sign. The Ranger lineup is one of the best in baseball (3rd in runs scored, 5th in team OBP, 2nd in team slugging), and the four man rotation will allow Alexi Ogando to pitch out of the pen, strengthening an already formidable relief corps. My pick is Texas in five.

NLCS

With all the shit talking between the Cards and Brewers, Ron Roenicke decided not to start Nyjer Morgan in game one of the NLCS. While on the surface, the move keeps one of the series’ biggest mouthpieces off the field; it also gets one of Milwaukee’s only above average defensive players (Carlos Gomez) into the game. Aside from the trash talk, health is a major issue in this NLCS. Both Ricky Weeks, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are playing hurt, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either manager decides that having Weeks/Holliday at 60% isn’t enough to keep them in the lineup; both players look severely limited right now. Predicting the NLCS seems a little more difficult than calling it’s American League counterpart. Both teams are flawed; Milwaukee has defensive issues and holes in their lineup (third base, centerfield and shortstop) while St. Louis has bullpen and lineup (second base and center field) issues of its own. Neither team is more than three starters deep in the rotation. Too bad, Adam Wainwright isn’t healthy. This series is equally talented, equally flawed teams; I’ll take the Brewers in seven.

10th Avenue Freese Out

There has been much ado (read: criticism) about Tony La Russa’s in game managerial tactics so far in these playoffs (listen to ESPN’s Keith Law for an elaboration). While La Russa is often criticized for his bullpen management (he used all but one pitcher in a nine inning NLDS game), he also likes to use the double switch and defensive replacements. Criticizing La Russa’s managerial style at this point would be beating a dead horse. We get it; he likes to make his mark on a game. One recently minted piece of micromanaging that La Russa should reconsider is removing David Freese in the late innings. Freese is one of the Cardinals better offensive weapons (especially with Holliday hurt) and there is evidence (albeit a small sample) that he is improving defensively at third base (he owns a UZR of +2.4 this season). Assuming that Freese can be league average level in the field, the Cards may be best served to keep Freese and his bat in any game.