2010 Preview: National League East

The Favourite - Philadelphia Phillies

Far and away the best team in the NL East, the two time National League Champs are still the favourite to win both their division and the National League. With the acquisition of Roy Halladay, the Phils are also the sentimental choice for Blue Jays fans that are realistic about their own teams 2010 possibilities. In the last few years the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the upper echelon of MLB teams, so to be division favourites is not enough anymore, the Phils are trying to hang with and beat the Yankees and Red Sox every year. With that in mind, the Phillies have a few holes that the other super powers do not. The Philadelphia bullpen was a mess in 2009 but I expect Brad Lidge to rebound; he was struggling in Houston when he was traded to the Phillies two years ago and he responded by having one of the most dominant seasons ever by a relief pitcher. The signing of Danys Baez should also help fortify the relief corps. The starting rotation behind Halladay also contains question marks: can Cole Hamels bounce back? Can J.A. Happ continue to improve (and contribute during the playoffs) and can Jamie Moyer stave off death long enough to complete a 40th season in the major leagues? Many baseball people suggest that Cole Hamels was particularly unlucky last year, citing strong peripheral stats (a similar strikeout to walk ratio as his breakout 2007 season and an extremely high opponents batting average on balls in play), on top of this, pitching behind Roy Halladay can only have a positive effect (just ask A.J. Burnett). A return to form by Hamels and continued improvement by Happ is likely and should solidify a rotation that in a worst case scenario can be put on the shoulders of one pitcher (Doc is that good). The offence is one of the best in the majors, and should only be solidified by the addition of Placido Polanco. Don't be surprised however if you see a regression by Raul Ibanez (age) and Jayson Werth (who is coming off a career year). Make no mistake this Phillies team is strong and any questions they have are the questions of a championship caliber team not a team that may or may not win the NL East.

The Challengers

Atlanta Braves

After an unprecedented run, 2010 will be Bobby Cox's last season managing in the major leagues, and this makes the Braves a sentimental pick for many people around baseball. In 2009 the Braves had one of the best rotations in baseball, and despite an offseason trade of Javier Vazquez the rotation is still one of the team's strengths. Even with Vazquez gone, the development of Atlanta's young hurlers Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson should offset the loss and allow the rotation to pitch the way it did in 2009. In the bullpen, many questioned the Braves decision to sign 39-year-old Billy Wagner (only a year removed from Tommy John surgery) to close, although his supporters point out that he did look good late last year with Boston. The offence also has a few question marks: Chipper Jones has vowed to retire if he can't elevate his game above its 2009 level and the production the Braves can extract from Troy Glaus (injury) and Jason Heyward (inexperience) is yet to be determined. Despite these uncertainties I expect Bobby Cox to pull the rabbit out of his hat one last time and keep the Tomahawk Choppers competitive in 2010.

New York Mets

There is no team in the major leagues more dysfunctional than the New York Mets. This offseason, headlines about the Mets included their very questionable acquisitions (they actually traded FOR Gary Matthews Jr. and bid against themselves for Jason Bay), their failed negotiations with several free agent catchers (Bengie Molina, Yorvit Torreabla) and very public arguments about whether or not it was ok for Carlos Beltran to go under the knife. When all the dust had settled, the Mets still had no one to start behind Johan Santana and an offence that does not play well to their cavernous home ballpark. The Mets are an expensive team so I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow stay in the race, but I will be equally unsurprised if they melt down yet again.

Florida Marlins

With the signing of Josh Johnson, the Marlins have assured their fans that they will not turn into the southern version of the Montreal Expos and in Hanley Ramirez the Marlins have one of the most exciting and dynamic offensive players in the major leagues. While the Marlins have more bright spots than they have had in recent years (Cody Ross, Chris Coghlan, Dan Uggla, Ricky Nolasco) but they made need one more year for players like Anibal Sanchez, Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez to develop before they can mount a strong challenge in the NL East.

Maybe Next Year

Washington Nationals

For the last few years, the Nationals have consistently been the worst team in the major leagues. That may change this year. They will still be awful and finish last in the NL East, but they may not be the worst team in baseball. Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham form a respectable middle of the lineup but Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and John Lannan at the top of the rotation spells trouble for the Nats in 2010.