Limited Exposure: Why the Rangers Should be Careful with Their Young Starting Pitchers

As we enter the final weeks of September, the Texas Rangers are in contention once again. With a 2.5 game lead on Los Angeles, the Rangers are fighting for their second AL West title in as many years. During this fight, Texas will be relying on three young starting pitchers in Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. As the year moves on, innings limits and shutdown dates are often discussed. However, Texas is in a position where limiting the workload of its young starting pitchers will benefit the Rangers now as well as down the road.

One through four, the Texas rotation is as strong as any in the American League. As of September 5, CJ Wilson, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison all have ERA’s under 4.15 (Holland’s is the highest at 4.13) and xFIP’s under 4.00 (Ogando’s is the highest at 3.95). While the New York and Boston rotations are posting similar numbers, Clay Buchholz return is still up in the air. Down the road in the Bronx, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon (who have contributed to the Yankee rotations’ similar xFIP and ERA numbers) look like they may be turning back into pumpkins. But like New York and Boston, the Texas starters have their own unanswered question: How will their young arms hold up down the stretch?

The question of how to handle young pitchers on playoff bound teams is a contentious one. There is a fairly large body of research that suggests innings limits and shutdown dates have not been as affective as some have suggested (http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id155.html). With this in mind, increased workloads could still be an issue for Texas starters. Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison all threw under 100 innings last year, and while Harrison (in 2007 at AA) and Holland (with the Rangers in 2009) have thrown over 100 innings once in their careers, they have already exceeded their career highs by 40 innings. That number should shoot to around 60+ additional innings (150 for Ogando) as Texas marches through September. Even if you don’t come from the Tom Verducci School of Pitcher Management, there is still risk with having young pitchers significantly increase their workload. In the case of the Rangers three young starters, they will be close to doubling it. Injury risk aside, fatigue may be a real concern for Ranger pitchers moving forward. Alexi Ogando’s August and September ERA’s of 7.14 and 4.50 are the highest of any months this year. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland also saw their highest monthly ERA’s in August. As we move deeper into September, the quality of innings 160 through 190 may not be the same as innings 1 through 100.

This July, Texas acquired some of the best arms on the market (in Koji Uehara and Mike Adams) to accompany Neftali Feliz at the back of the Ranger bullpen. Both pitchers are in the top 30 relievers in Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (WAR). If deployed, these relievers can affectively shorten a game to six innings. Given fatigue on young arms, and the (newly acquired) quality of the Texas relief corps, the most optimal way to manage the Ranger pitching staff may be to limit their young starters to five (or six innings depending on pitch count) max. This should limit the amount of poor performance the Rangers see from fatigued starters late in the season, increasing their chances of both holding on to their AL West lead, and winning games in the playoffs.

Relying on three potentially exhausted starting pitchers in a pennant race is not an ideal situation. But if Texas can limit the amount of innings these pitchers see, it will help them win now, and win later. Because whether or not there is an increased risk of injury, tired pitchers throwing meaningful innings is never a good thing.