Just Go For It

It’s rare that a pitcher like Roy Oswalt (or as Toronto fans know him: The Lesser Roy) is still on the market less than a month before the start of spring training. Now it’s possible that Oswalt’s balky back has taken a turn for the worse and that explains why teams are hesitant to commit, but if he is at least relatively healthy, why it is taking him so long to sign is beyond me. Rumour has it that the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are two of the leading suitors for Oswalt’s services. There has also been talk (from Joe Sheehan on his “The Baseball Show” podcast, amongst others) that both St. Louis and Texas would be better off not pursuing Oswalt because both teams already have five established starters. Now again, these are just rumours and shouldn’t be taken as more than that, but if (and it’s a big if), these ideas are true, why either team would hold off on signing Oswalt is a mystery to me.

When healthy (which admittedly is not as often as anyone would like), Roy Oswalt is a very good pitcher. Despite full rotations, Oswalt (3.44 ERA and 3.95 xFIP) would serve as an upgrade over the Cardinals’ Jake Westbrook (4.66 ERA, 4.08 xFIP), or the Rangers’ Colby Lewis (4.40 ERA, 4.10 xFIP). We should also remember that Oswalt is only one year removed from a 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs version) season. The righty would also offer some stability to a rotation that has significant uncertainties coming into the 2012 season. In Texas, Neftali Feliz and Yu Darvish are making the transition to starting roles in the major leagues and in St. Louis, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery. For either team, signing Oswalt would provide an insurance policy against potential complications related to fatigue, innings limits or underperformance. Not highly unlikely for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, a converted reliever who threw 62.1 innings last year, and a rookie(ish) starter making a transition to pitching every five days for the first time.

Beyond providing an upgrade in the rotation, adding Oswalt would make either team’s overall staff stronger, by allowing a back of the rotation starter (like Westbrook or Lewis) to move into a long relief role. The added depth would add protection against injuries too, and we all know that very rarely can a team have 5 starters pitch all 162 games.

The Cards and the Rangers both made World Series appearances last fall and given the moves they have already made this offseason, appear poised to make another playoff run in 2012. Roy Oswalt could help either team get back to the World Series. Sure, he could get hurt and maybe last year was the beginning of a sharp decline phase for the 34 year old pitcher, but a one year contract is almost never a bad idea. Oswalt is a low-risk and high reward option for two teams that could improve their chances of winning this year, even if it means supplanting someone from an already full rotation.