Fantasy Flyer: Rick Porcello

Few young pitchers have been more frustrating than Rick Porcello over the last few years – in both reality and in fantasy baseball. Like the girl harbouring a grudge when getting back into the dating game, we’ve all been “hurt before” by Rick Porcello types. But this year, in deep leagues, It might be worthwhile to once again roll the dice on Porcello. If he is able to put things together, Porcello could provide surprising value at the back of your fantasy rotation.

One of the biggest storylines coming into 2012, was the Tigers’ abhorrent infield defence. Porcello, along with fellow groundball inducer, Doug Fister, were the pitchers believed to suffer most from Detroit’s infield made of stone. While the Tigers’ infield defence will no doubt hurt him, Detroit institutions Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta have been hurting Porcello’s numbers for the last few years. The addition of Fielder may not be as drastic as we are led to believe. The increase in WHIP and ERA may be offset by the extra win opportunities Procello should have playing for the Tigers and pitching in the AL Central.

Infield defence and win totals aside, there are other reasons why I am optimistic Porcello can be a good buy low fantasy candidate. Right now, Porcello has an ERA of 5.64 and xFIP of 3.64. The past two seasons, Porcello has posted ERA’s of 4.92 and 4.75 while his xFIP has come in at 4.24 and 4.04. While the poor Tigers defence will probably continue lead to an ERA that remains somewhat higher than his xFIP; Porcello’s xFIP does suggest that we should see some improvement in his performance. There is also reason to be slightly optimistic about Porcello’s ability to build further upon his skillset. Right now, Porcello’s value comes from his ability to prevent walks and induce groundballs. Mike Podhorzer at Fangraphs has noted that Porcello has increased his fastball velocity by 1.7 mph this year. If Porcello is able to increase his strikeout rate to over 5 K/9; like it was in the minor leagues, it would go a long way in adding to his fantasy value.

To pepper in some anecdotal evidence. Baseball Prospectus scouts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parkes (on their podcast Up and In), both discussed that coming into the 2012 season, neither would be surprised if Porcello can put it all together and take the next step. Keith Law, scout for ESPN, has also written that he believes Porcello improve on his 2011 performance. It’s also easy to forget that Porcello is still only 23 years old. To assume he has reached his peak may be premature. While it also may be premature to roster Porcello in a standard 10 team mixed league, in deeper leagues, gambling on Porcello now may pay off sooner rather than later.