Things are going to get worse before they get better for the Seattle Mariners, that much, everybody knows. But what if things aren’t on their way to improving like we think they are? This weeks’ absolutely worst case scenario looks at the Seattle Mariners.
If anyone doubted Seattle’s commitment to rebuilding, the January trade of Michael Pineda to New York should leave no doubt that this team is not trying to win anything in 2012, and playing in a division that includes the Rangers and Angels, means they really shouldn’t be. Because Seattle isn’t expecting to contend in 2012, the only thing that could really hinder the team this year is a lack of development by players counted on to be cornerstones of the Mariners’ rebuild. Seattle is rich in pitching prospects (Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton), and while the team is not devoid of position player depth (Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez), they do lack projectable, high upside, middle of the order bats outside of Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.
This January, the Mariners sent Michael Pineda, a top of the rotation talent with a solid rookie season already under his belt, to the Yankees with the idea that they could build their offense around Jesus Montero. While he does have the ability to become a middle of the order bat, there are some unanswered questions in his game. By some accounts, Montero appeared bored last year in the minor leagues (he slugged under .500 for the first time since 2008), and playing for a rebuilding team doesn’t necessarily inspire focus. No one outside the clubhouse (like a random Canadian baseball fan taken to blogging...) really knows the extent of the problems, but if Montero does have issues related to focus or motivation, these problems may follow him to a team that wins 70 games for the next couple years.
There is also the issue of Montero’s ability to develop as a power hitter. By all accounts, Montero is a strong kid with power to all fields. If, for some reason however, that power doesn’t translate at Safeco Field, where Mariners brass are banking he will show power to the right field(the only place power hitters can exploit in Seattle), his on-base and contact skills may not be worth the price Seattle paid to acquire him. There is also some concern from scouts who believe that Montero‘s defence is not good enough to have him stick at catcher in the major leagues. A version of Montero that is used primarily as a DH and isn’t able to produce middle of the order power numbers will definitely lead to more questions than answers for Seattle over the next few years.
The Mariners’ other power bat of the future, Justin Smoak, has also failed to live up to the expectations that made him the centrepiece of the Cliff Lee trade two years ago. Smoak is still only twenty five years old and has suffered a rash of injuries and personal setbacks (he lost his father last season), that suggest it is too early to write him off yet. With this in mind, his performance since arriving in the big leagues in 2010 has not been stellar. In 886, plate appearances – not the smallest of sample sizes, he has posted a slash line of .227/.318/.385.
The Mariners have young pitching to spare. It’s why they traded Michael Pineda, and it’s why they can absorb the blow if someone like Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen doesn’t pan out as they hoped. 2012 won’t be Seattle’s year, but if Justin Smoak or Jesus Montero aren’t able to develop into middle of the order power bats the team can pair with Dustin Ackley (who needs to avoid a sophomore slump of his own), the team may need to re-evaluate and consider trading another arm (maybe eve Felix Hernandez) and another couple years of losing before they are once again competitive in the AL West.
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