2012 AL Predictions in 723 Words

Here are my quick and dirty American League Predictions for 2012.
Division Winners

AL East – New York Yankees

You never get fired for buying IBM, and this winter, IBM’s rotation got a whole lot better. Adding Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda to a rotation that already includes CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova turned an organizational weakness into an organizational strength. The Yank’s offence should be as potent as ever (2nd in baseball with 867 runs scored) and it wouldn’t be crazy to see better years from Mark Teixeira (he had a line of .248/.341/.494 in 2011, his lowest since his rookie season) and Alex Rodriguez (who should be healthier). The bullpen should be stellar, especially if Raphael Soriano is pitching effectively – the prospect of using David Robertson in the seventh inning is a scary one for the rest of the AL East. And it’s always hard to bet against the team that can just go out and buy whatever it is they don’t have (maybe a catcher or a DH-type) at the trade deadline.

AL Central – Cleveland Indians

You gotta take some chances or these things all boring as hell to read. It’s easy to think the Tigers are going to run away with the division, but I’m not convinced. Sure, they signed Prince Fielder, but he is replacing the injured Victor Martinez, so the offensive upgrade should not be as drastic as many think. There is no way Jose Valverde is going to have anything close to the year he had in 2011, and the rest of their bullpen options are less than ideal. Kansas City is on the rise but I think their young pitching needs another year of seasoning before they can contend. Cleveland on the other hand, has a solid rotation that has the potential to be very good if Ubaldo Jimenez reverts to form and I expect Shin Soo-Choo to rebound from a down year. Combined with the Indians young players (Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis), and the fact they play in baseball’s easiest division, I say the Tribe upset Detroit and sneak into the playoffs.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A lot of people are down on the Angels’ offence. I’m not as bearish as most. The Halos are able to get above average production from their middle infielders - Erik Aybar and Howie/Howard Kendrick. If the team can employ Mike Trout, Alberto Callaspo and Mark Trumbo correctly (ie. not playing Trumbo everyday), combined with Albert Pujols and a potential return of Kendrys Morales, the offence should be significantly better. Combined with the Angels’ rotation, Los Angeles should come out on top of the AL West. Texas is very good team too, but until Yu Darvish (who they are counting on to replace CJ Wilson) establishes himself as a frontline starter and Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler prove they can stay off the disabled list, I wouldn’t bet against the Angels.

Wildcard - Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers

While these teams may have a few more question marks in my mind than the Angels and Yankees, they are still very, very good teams; even if there are injury concerns and Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard struggle to make the transition to the starting rotation. I am hesitant to think that the Rays or Blue Jays can hang with the Rangers and Red Sox. Tampa’s rotation is as good as anyone’s, but outside of Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and maybe Desmond Jennings, their offence is sporting some significant holes (shortstop, catcher) and features an absolute tonne of strikeout potential thanks to Carlos Pena and BJ Upton.

Rookie of the Year – Matt Moore, Tampa Rays

This award is the Tampa righty’s to lose. He has shown no reason (although admittedly in a small sample last season) that he can’t continue to be successful at the Major League level, even in baseball’s toughest division.

AL MVP – Evan Longoria, Tampa Rays

There are going to be a lot of players that have big offensive seasons this year in the American League. Longoria is going to be one of them. He is also going to be one of the only big hitters that plays stellar defence at a demanding position. The Rays should play well enough for him to secure the “winning matters” contingent of the vote.