If I’ve learned anything from Fox News, it’s that sensationalism plays big. I’ve also learned that nothing gets people’s attention better than worst case scenarios. The kind of coverage that screams loudly that something COULD happen, however unlikely it may be. So in the spirit of Fox News and in liu of a measured analysis (which most spring previews at least try for), I thought I would change it up by over-reacting and looking at an everything-goes- wrong, worst case scenario for a few teams around the Major Leagues. First on the docket, the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves were a playoff team up until the last day of the regular season, and they come into 2012 with the roster primarily intact. A lot of things didn’t break right for Atlanta in 2011, but the 2012 season also brings with it some unanswered questions, namely, can the team stay healthy enough to compete.
In 2011, Jason Heyward’s sophomore season was plagued by some combination of injuries and underperformance. Now while there is reason to believe that a healthy Jayson Heyward can build on his 2010 rookie season, there are questions as to whether or not he will stay healthy, as Heyward appears to be building a reputation as injury prone. Without Heyward, the heart of Atlanta’s order is overly reliant on the aging Chipper Jones, strikeout machine Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann. Entering the twilight of his career, Jones’ production has begun to fall off, and McCann, who is quietly putting together a great career of his own (he’s slugged at least .450 every year since ‘06), will only play 120-130 games a year to stay fresh and avoid wear and tear. Between Heyward, Jones and McCann, the Braves will need things to break right to ensure their middle of the order bats stay on the field for the majority of the year. If they don’t, it will get pretty frustrating watching Dan Uggla strikeout in 25% of his at bats.
While the lineup contains question marks, the biggest uncertainties for the Braves come from the pitching staff. On the surface, the Braves have a loaded staff, with more reinforcements on the way in the form of top prospects Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino. But aside from their depth, Atlanta could face some obstacles. Ace Tommy Hanson‘s torn rotator cuff and seemingly endless DL stints are concerning. Already sidelined briefly this spring with a concussion, Hanson has only started over 22 games once in the last 3 seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees limited action this year. Number two starter Tim Hudson is facing concerns of his own, as he turns 38 this summer and attempts to come back from off season back surgery. Combine Hudson and Hanson’s potential to miss time with All-Star Jair Jurrjens potential to regress (his xFIP was over a run higher than his ERA in 2011), and Derek Lowe’s departure to Cleveland, the Braves’ rotation could end up thinner than it appears in 2012.
When it comes to the back end of the bullpen, no one was better than Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel last year. The downside however, is that almost no one pitched as many innings as Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Freddi Gonzalez’s usage of the duo was heavily criticized he but he could very well be run out of town if they are unable to repeat their rookie performances, or even worse, blow out their arms. Let’s hope Gonazalez doesn’t turn into Dusty Baker version 2.0.
So there you have it, an everything that could possibly go wrong outlook on the Atlanta Braves. Not a realistic, thorough, or measured assessment (that would include things like Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn and the ability of Vizcaino and Teheran to step into the rotation), but one that was fast, quick and might leave you more worried than you should be. Kind of like how you feel after watching Fox News.
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